Sainsbury Financial Analysis 3h474l
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ABSTRACT The aim of this report will be to analyse the effects which the economic downturn had on Sainsbury financial market and performance over the years of 2008 and 2009. The report will be dissected into four main areas. Firstly, an analysis and evaluation of Sainsbury financial performance using ratios as a tool will be obtained from the annual reports of 2008 and 2009. A trend analysis will be done to demonstrate the pattern of Sainsbury financial performance over the years 2005 to 2009.
Furthermore, an analysis and evaluation of
developments in the supermarket industry will be done for the years 2008 and 2009. In addition, a ‘what if’ analysis of the probable financial performance of Sainsbury, had the downturn not ensued will be conducted. Finally, conclusions of the report will be discussed to reveal if the company was prepared and how well they handled the pressures of the downturn to minimise impact on their financial performance.
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1
2
SAINSBURY OVERVIEW
1
1.1
Sainsbury s
1
1.2
Sainsbury Financial Tools
1
SAINSBURY RATIO ANALYSIS
1.
SAINSBURY’S OVERVIEW
Sainsbury is the UK’s third largest supermarket. Their main competitors are Tesco, Asda and Morrison. Presently, Sainsbury operates 504 supermarkets across the UK, employing approximately 150,000 employees1. 1.1
Sainsbury s
Sainsbury annual fiscal year ends in the third week of March each year. They previously used the UK GAAP ing format up until 2005 and in 2006 they changed over to the IFRS. Their auditor is PricewaterhouseCoopers. The company uses the going concern concept2. 1.2
Sainsbury Financial Tools
The financial tools used are the Income statement, Balance sheet, Cash flow statement and financial ratios3. Table 1.2 below shows the important figures extracted from the financial tools.
INCOME STATEMENT 1
2009 (£m)
2008 (£m)
2007 (£m)
2006 (£m)
Sainsbury Online www.j-sainsbury.co.uk This ensures that the company will continue to operate in the foreseeable future. 3 Financial information obtained from London Stock Exchange. Refer to Appendix 1, page… 2
Sales
18,911
17,837
17,151
16,061
Gross Profit
1,036
1,002
1,172
1,067
Total Operating Income BALANCE SHEET Goodwill Stocks
18,968
17,867
17,168
16,062
2009 (£m) 114 689 627 1591
2008 (£m) 114 681 719 1610
2007 (£m) 112 590 1128 1915
2006 (£m) 109 576 1080 3845
Cash & Equivalent
Total Current Asset Total Current 2919 2605 2721 4810 Liabilities Long Term Debt 2,177 2,084 2,090 2,178 CASH FLOW 2009 (£m) 2008 (£m) 2007 (£m) 2006 (£m) Net Cash 1,206 998 830 780 Generated from Operating Activities Proceeds from 390 198 106 164 disposal of Property, plant and equipment Dividends paid 218 178 140 131 to shareholders Cash at end of 599 601 765 842 year Trends of Financial Statements: Sales grew by 20% over the period 2006-2009. Responses to changes in the economy are effective, evident by a stable financial position and slight growth. Gross Profit increased slightly from 2006-2007 but declined slightly in 2008. There was a significant net profit increase from 2006-2007. Balance Sheet figures shows slight growth and some stability in stocks and goodwill. Liabilities decreased significantly from 2006-2007. This trend indicates that borrowing decreased due to high interest rates. Assets continue to decrease from as much as 20.6% for the period 2006-2008. Cash flow indicates that Sainsbury is liquid and has managed to maintain stability and slight growth. Sainsbury recorded £57 million in profits in 2009 from the sale of eight supermarkets. Because of this, they have sufficient cash to manage their operating activities, reduce overall debt, restructure the company and increase discounts and marketing. However there was a 28% decline in cash at year end. This might have occurred by the revamping of their value chain to adjust to economic changes.
Table 1.2: Sainsbury Key Financial Figures 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009) Despite the downturn, Sainsbury profits continued to increase. Gross profits dipped a bit in 2008 but the company had various strategies in place to emerge successful in 2008 – 2009. In this report, mostly the financial ratios are analysed to provide an overview of Sainsbury performance over the past two years. 2.
SAINSBURY RATIO ANALYSIS
According to Maclaney and Atrill (2002), ‘…ratios provide an overview of the business’s financial condition’. Similarly, Wood (2002) stated, ‘Ratio analysis is a first step in assessing an entity’. The effects of the downturn experienced by Sainsbury are demonstrated by the following ratios below. A four year trend analysis will highlight Sainsbury’s performance two years prior to the downturn and the two years during the downturn. 2.1
Profitability Ratio Analysis
Maclaney and Atrill (2002, p. 197) stated, ‘Profitability ratios provide an insight to the degree of success in achieving the purpose of the business’. The table below demonstrates Sainsbury profitability ratios.
Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Industry – 3.53%
Net Profit Margin (NPM) Industry – 0.92%
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
2009 (%)
2008 (%)
2007 (%)
2006 (%)
Remarks
5.48
5.62
6.83
6.64
(0.14% decrease from 2008, 1.35% decrease from 2007
(1.21% decrease from 2007)
(.19% increase from 2006)
GPM increased from 2006 to 2007 by 0.19%. In 2008, it fell by a margin of 1.21% from 2007. GPM in 2009 continued to fall in small figures.
1.43
NPM increased by 1.60% from 2006 to 2007. During the downturn in 2008, it fell by only 0.06% from 2007. However, it increased by 0.53% in 2009.
2.89
ROCE almost tripled from 2006 to 2007. In 2008, it fell by 0.53%. In 2009, the firm showed the largest increase over the past four years.
3.56
2.97
3.03
(0.59% increase from 2008, 0.53% increase from 2006)
(0.06% decrease from 2007)
(1.60% increase from 2006)
9.46
7.06
7.59
(2.40% increase from 2008, 1.87% increase from 2007)
(0.53% decrease from 2007)
(4.70% increase from 2006)
Table 2.1: Sainsbury Profitability Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009)
The ratios above illustrate a moderate decline in profitability in 2008 when compared to 2007. In 2008, the UK began to experience the effects of the downturn which is evident according to the table above. However, when comparing 2008 to 2009, the figures suggest that profitability increased by approximately 3% overall. Sainsbury responded to the economic slowdown through their profitability. The downward profitability in 2008 was most likely due to changes in policies and practices to tackle inflation and increases in food prices in a competitive industry. Furthermore, the market conditions instigated a change in purchasing behaviour which triggered Sainsbury to cut wastages by revamping their value chain and intensively increasing promotions. These actions showed growth results in 2009 as ROCE and NPM increased slightly. 2.1.1 Gross Profit Margin GPM over the 2008 and 2009 have decreased slightly by 1.35% due to the downturn but still maintain healthy figures which are above industry average. Interestingly though, sales increased throughout 2006 to 2009, however, expenses also increased contributing to the slight decrease in the GPM 4. Because of decreased disposable household income Sainsbury acted swiftly to diversify risks to ensure they maintain their GPM. 2.1.2 Net Profit Margin Table 2.1 revealed that NPM increased by 0.59% from 2008 to 2009 and by 0.53% over 2006 to 2009. These increases continue despite the economic slowdown showing their financial power. It is well above industry average of 0.92% because strategic plans were properly planned and executed and sales volume increased without increasing costs. 2.1.3 Return on Capital Employed
4
Refer to Table 1.2 on Page
ROCE from 2008 to 2009 increased by 20% mainly because of proceeds attained from property disposal, used to finance overall operations. From 2007 to 2008, however, it decreased slightly because of oil related costs and increased business rates. Nevertheless, the general trend from 2006 to 2009 indicates proper assets utilisation and investor confidence.
2.2
Liquidity Ratio Analysis
According to Robinson et. al (2009, p.795) liquidity ratios are ‘Financial ratios measuring the company’s ability to meet short-term obligations’. Sainsbury liquidity ratio analysis is illustrated in Table 2.2 below. 2009
2008
2007
2006
Remarks Ratio increased by 0.21 from 2006-2007, but from 2007-2009 it decreased slowly. Figures are in line with industry figure.
Current Ratio Industry – 0.70 : 1
0.66 : 1
0.71 : 1
0.80 : 1
0.59 : 1
Quick Acid Test Industry – 0.69 : 1
0.31 : 1
0.40 : 1
0.50 : 1
0.68 : 1
Sainsbury experienced a downward trend from 2006-2009 and have fallen behind the industry figure.
Shareholder’s Liquidity
1.27 : 1
1.92 : 1
1.74 : 1
0.98 : 1
Shareholder’s liquidity showed growth from 2006-2007 but declined in 2009.
Table 2.2: Sainsbury Liquidity Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009) 2.2.1 Current Ratio Table 2.2 above indicates that Sainsbury has adequate current assets to match their current liabilities; however in 2009 the current ratio dropped slightly below the industry average. Current assets are continuing to decrease most likely from investing rigorously in long-term ventures or because current liabilities are rising faster than current assets. Sainsbury used their liquid
assets to finance their business through marketing and promotions to make it profitable, hence profitable during the downturn. 2.2.2 Acid Test Ratio Acid Test Ratio illustrates a steady decline by almost 50% over 2006 to 2009. It continuously fell below the industry average as well. Nevertheless, Sainsbury has a remarkable debtor payment period5 and recovered debts quickly even during the downturn. Therefore, the decline in the quick ratio may have resulted from investing in long-term activities to ensure profitability and increase market share. 2.2.3 Shareholder’s Liquidity Shareholder’s Liquidity have increased during the downturn overall by 25% but declined in 2009. However, the figures from Table 2.2 illustrates that shareholders should be satisfied as Sainsbury is still managing to remain profitable well into the long-term. 2.3
Efficiency/Activity Ratio Analysis
Robinson et. al (2009, p.789) stated, ‘Activity ratios are ratios that measure how efficiently a company performs day-to-day tasks, such as the collection of receivables and management of inventory’.
2009 Debtor Days
5
2008
4
Refer to subheading 2.3.1 on Page …
4
2007 4
2006
Remarks
49
The ability of Sainsbury to recover debts improved tremendously
from 2006. However, from 2007-2009 the debtor payment figure remained constant. Creditor Days
60
Stock Turnover
14
56
62
114
15
13
53
In 2006, Sainsbury took a long time to repay their suppliers. From 20072009 their payment period to suppliers were shortened from 4 months to 2 months. Stock turnover has remained relatively stable during the downturn.
Table 2.3: Sainsbury Efficiency/Activity Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009) 2.3.1 Debtor Days Sainsbury has a relatively stable debtor payment period of only four days before, during and after the downturn. This indicates that they are adhering to policies in place to recover their debts at a cash strapped time when debtors may not have funds to make payments. However, being a supermarket, most of their sales are in cash which is the rationale of a high debtor payment figure. 2.3.2 Creditor Days The creditor days ratio reveals that Sainsbury obtains payment from their debtors before paying their creditors. During the downturn, their payments to suppliers were not affected because they had sufficient cash to finance themselves by utilising cash received from their debtors. One can assume that their creditors are very lenient given that Sainsbury is moderately liquid; they recover debts quickly but take approximately two months to pay suppliers. 2.3.3 Stock Turnover
Stock turnover is approximately fourteen days which is still slightly high because of the life-span foods and vegetables have to remain fresh. This means that stock needs to be rotated very often. Nonetheless, Sainsbury also stock household and domestic items which remains a long while to be rotated.
2.4
Investment Ratio Analysis 2009
Earnings per share (EPS)
Diluted Earnings per share
Beta Ratio
2008
2007
16.60
19.10
19.20
(Decreased by 2.50% from 2007 and 2.6% from 2007)
(Decreased by 0.10% from 2007)
(Increased by 15.40% from 2006)
16.40
18.60
18.90
(Decreased by 2.20% from 2008 and 2.50% from 2007
(Decreased by 0.30% from 2007)
(Increased by 15.10% from 2006)
0.73
0.55 (Decreased
-
(Increased by 0.18% from 2007)
2006 3.80
Remarks From 2006-2007, there was a 20% increase in EPS. From 2007-2008 there was 10 pence margin between the figures. It decreased in 2009 by 2.50%
3.80
DPS remained moderately stable during the downturn but decreased slightly by 2.20%
0.78
Beta ratio showed a slight decrease in 2007 but increased by a mere 0.18% in 2008.
by 0.28% from 2006)
Table 2.4: Sainsbury Investment Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009) 2.4.1 Earnings per Share EPS fell by 10 pence during the downturn and declined further by 26% in 2009, shareholders therefore received a lower rate per share in 2008-2009. However, balance sheet and cash flow statements reveal that shareholders are investing by acquiring properties to access more space for future expansion. 2.4.2 Diluted Earnings per Share DPS slightly declined by the same rate as EPS from 2008-2009. This is not a major concern for Sainsbury presently, since it shows that shareholders are
willing to forego some of their personal wealth to ensure the business remains profitable. 2.4.3 Beta Ratio Beta figures illustrates that shares are less volatile than the market since it remains at less than one. In 2008, beta ratio increased a little due to market conditions but remained under a benchmark figure of one.
2.5
Gearing Ratio Analysis
Maclaney and Atril (2002, p.197) stated, ‘Gearing is the relationship between the amount financed by the owners of the business and the amount contributed by outsiders’. Table
Gearing
2009
2008
2007
2006
Remarks
34.75
30.85
36.16
38.48
(Increased by 3.90% from 2008)
(Decreased by 5.31% from 2007 and 7.63% from 2006)
(Decreased by 2.3% from 2006)
Gearing figures showed a downward trend from 2006-2008 but recovered slightly in 2009 from 2008.
Table 2.5: Sainsbury Gearing Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009)
2.5.1 Gearing Ratio The gearing ratio increased by 11% from 2008-2009 indicating that risks are increasing due to the changes that were made to survive the economic slowdown. Interest rates decreased considerably causing imports to be more costly and the gearing ratio to increase due to market volatility.
2.6
Limitations of Ratio Analysis
In analysing and evaluating Sainsbury ratios there were a few limitations6. 2.6.1 Information Issues During the downturn the ratios may not reflect the true overview of the company. The ratios can supply some information to Sainsbury performance or financial position but when used alone, it cannot suggest whether performance was good or poor. Additionally, information in the financial statements can be outdated during the year depending on when the financial year ends. It may not indicate the current financial status of the company especially before or during a downturn. Sometimes, at the end of the financial year, it may not present a true reflection of the overall year’s performance. 2.6.2 ing Issues The business can use creative ing to indicate enhanced performance which can be misleading to the s. Window-dressing can occur to improve current and quick ratios to make balance sheet and cash flow statement look better.
3.
ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF SAINSBURY FINANCIAL MARKET
Sainsbury operates in a highly competitive market. The UK supermarket industry is mainly dominated by four major supermarkets – Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury and Morrisons. Together they control approximately 75% of the 6
Limitation of Ratio Analysis, www.cbdd.wsu.edu/kewlcontent/
UK’s market share according to Figure 3 below7. The industry is mature and flat because growth is difficult, the market leaders are pursuing a low cost strategy and consumers are benefiting and increasingly demanding. Intense competition has accelerated resulting in the market leaders to become highly innovative to build market share by focusing on value, price and advertising while reinforcing excellent customer service.
17%
15.90%
Sainsbury Tesco Morrisons Asda
11.10%
31.60%
Fig. 3: Market Share of the Too Four Supermarkets in the UK Source: www.marketresearch.co.uk
3.1
Developments in the UK’s Financial Market
From 2008-2009 there were many changes occurring in the UK’s economy during the recession which is explained below.
3.1.1 The UK Labour Market The UK labour market was affected by the credit crisis. This created a chain reaction and unemployment began to increase from May to August, 2008 as illustrated in Figure 3.1.1. It rose by 164,000 which is the largest increase 7
www.marketresearch.co.uk
since 19908. The unemployment rate was 5.8% for the three months to September, 2008. This means that there was decreased disposable income as families have to now curb their spending.
Fig. 3.1.1: UK Unemployment rate July 2008 - July 2009 Source: Adapted from http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/ukeconomy-2009/
3.1.2 Disposable Income The annual rate of growth in average earnings excluding bonuses was 3.6% in the three months to September 20089. According to ONS, with earnings growth on a downward trend due to the weakening labour market and inflation rising, the squeeze on families’ real disposable income continued. 3.1.3 Inflation According to National Statistics Online10, Consumer Prices Index (I) annual inflation rate was 4.5% in October, 2008. The largest downward pressure on 8
Weekly Economic Briefing (2008) Office of National Statistics Online (2008). 10 www.statistics.gov.uk 9
the I annual rate came from transport costs where the price of fuels and lubricants fell that year but rose in 200911. Inflation causes prices to increase and the general market shrink since consumers experience difficulty to purchase goods and services12.
Fig. 3.1.3: UK Inflation Rate October 2006 – October 2008 Source: Adapted from http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/ukeconomy-2009/
3.1.4 Interest Rates Decreases Bank interest rate was decreased from 4.5% in October, 2008 to 1.1% in September, 2009. Nevertheless, consumers are able to borrow more because of the low rates. Low interest rates causes savings to decrease and the weakness of the sterling causes imports to be more expensive. Figure 3.1.4 illustrates the UK’s interest rates as stated by the Bank of England.
11
This affected the UK financial market significantly since the price of oil is pegged to the sterling pound. 12 When unemployment increases, inflation (general rise in prices) also increases.
Fig. 3.1.4: Bank of England Interest Rate March 2006 – September 2008 Source: Adapted from http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/ukeconomy-2009/
3.1.5 Exchange Rate The UK exchange rate for 2008-2009 decreased during this period because of a weakened sterling. From April, 200813 it continued to decline reaching an all time low at 1.0219 GBP IN December, 2008. This made exported goods cheaper but imported goods more expensive causing an adverse effect on businesses.
3.2
Developments in the UK’s Supermarket Industry
The supermarkets in the UK are no longer limiting themselves to just supplying food products. In light of financial turmoil, in 2008 they spread their 13
In March, 2009 the pound began to increase in value and stood its ground at 1.06 GBP thus far. http://www.economywatch.com/exchange-rate/uk-pound-sterling.html
risks at a time when food inflation soared, to diverse into areas such as finance, mobile and broadband markets14. This diversification provide avenues should a slowdown occur in food product sales, they can achieve sales in other areas. In 2008, the supermarket industry recorded £123 billion in consumer spending a huge increase when compared to £119.8 billion in 2007. This shows clearly that during the downturn, their strategies and financial strength were successful in remaining competitive. Table 3.2 illustrates a PESTEL analysis of the developments in the UK supermarket industry during 2008-2009.
14
www.fooddeserts.org/images/supshare.htm
POLITICAL FACTORS
•
Taxation Policy – the government decreased the rate of corporation tax from 30% to 28%, which will save supermarkets significant sums of money. This means that supermarkets profits will be greater.
•
Government intervention – Government is investigating claims of price fixing among the major supermarkets and this poses a threat as they may be forced to curtail prices.
•
The competition commission is constantly monitoring the supermarket industry.
ECONOMIC FACTORS
•
Rise in unemployment – the UK unemployment figure rose to 164,000 in 2008; the largest increase since 1990 (Weekly Economic Briefing, 2008).
•
Inflation – Inflation rate decreased, triggered by the sharp fall in the price of crude oil.
•
Interest Rate – Decreased by almost 2% in 2008, which can increase consumer spending.
•
Disposable Income – ONS revealed that with earnings growth on a downward trend due to the weakening labour market, families’ real disposable income can be ‘squeezed’. This can affect sales fro supermarkets.
• SOCIAL FACTORS
•
Lifestyle Changes – People are purchasing healthy foods and are being more health conscious.
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS
•
•
During the downturn, more people are starting to prepare homecooked meals; a change in trend from eating out which is expensive due to food inflation. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
•
Green Issues – Supermarkets are investing in green issues by using less plastic, recycling wastes and shifting to environmentally friendly procedures. Profits are used for this but sales can increase because consumers are demanding environmentally friendly products.
Increase in Technology – New technologies can make service more convenient and increases customer satisfaction, leading to a competitive advantage and increase in sales.
LEGAL FACTORS
•
Foreign trade restrictions – Imports attract taxes and tariffs making goods more expensive. Customers may then demand substitutes.
Table 3.2: PESTEL Analysis of the UK Supermarket Industry 2008-2009 Source: www.marketresearch.co.uk
3.3
Effects of Financial Market on Sainsbury
In 2008, Sainsbury experienced a slower sales growth when compared to past trends. The effects of the downturn caused Sainsbury to put measures in place to increase profitability in 2009. Some of the changes to strategies they made are discussed below. EFFECTS OF THE DOWNTURN
CHANGES MADE TO ADAPT
Increase in unemployment, rise in food inflation and decrease in disposable income.
Household budgets were clearly under pressure from the effects of the downturn. Sainsbury had to slash the cost of essentials and basic products as customers faced the biggest squeeze on income in 50 years. Marketing strategy shifted to focus on cost and their value chain was adjusted to improve layout, increase space, future hedge with suppliers, and shed off unnecessary costs. Customers were demanding low cost products and Sainsbury adjusted to suit demands.
Decreased Interest rate and decreased I annual inflation rate.
Sainsbury benefited from decreased interest and I inflation rates as more customers were able to take advantage of lower borrowing. Sainsbury took advantage of this by lowering prices, and intensified marketing of their cheaper own label goods.
Lifestyle changes
As the economy dipped, more people chose to prepare homecooked meals to eliminate the costs attached to eating out. Penny-pinched consumers depended on Sainsbury to provide low cost vegetables and meats from tied in suppliers.
Competitive rivalry, customer loyalty
Fierce competition caused Sainsbury to focus on value, price and advertising while reinforcing excellent customer service Sainsbury annual report (2009) stated that a clear strategy was developed to focus on five main areas: great product at fair prices, increase growth of non-food ranges, additional marketing channels to reach more customers, increase space and active property management (includes disposal of property and investing in increasing space in profitable areas). Sainsbury increased promotions and marketing strategies such as ‘Making Sainsbury’s Great Again’, loyalty discount cards, online shopping, cheaper and high quality own brand goods and increase in technology and faster checkout time. They additionally branched out spreading risks into the financial sector, oil-related areas and department stores.
Table 3.3: Effects of the downturn on Sainsbury Source: Sainsbury Annual Reports 2008 and 2009
4.
‘WHAT IF’ ANALYSIS OF SAINSBURY
REFERENCES Sainsbury Annual Report, 2008. [Online] Available from: http://www.j-sainsbury.co.uk [cited 14 October, 2009]. Company Profile for Sainsbury Plc, 2009. [Online] Available from: http://www. ONS 2009. [Online] Available from: http://www.ons.gov.uk
[cited 14 October, 2009]. UK Pound Sterling Exchange Rate. [Online] http://www.economywatch.com/exchange-rate/uk-pound-sterling.html
BIBLIOGRAPHY Maclaney, E and Atrill, P. 2002. ing: An Introduction. 2nd ed. London: Prentice Hall. Robinson, T.R et. al. 2009. International Financial Statement Analysis. 10th ed. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Furthermore, an analysis and evaluation of
developments in the supermarket industry will be done for the years 2008 and 2009. In addition, a ‘what if’ analysis of the probable financial performance of Sainsbury, had the downturn not ensued will be conducted. Finally, conclusions of the report will be discussed to reveal if the company was prepared and how well they handled the pressures of the downturn to minimise impact on their financial performance.
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1
2
SAINSBURY OVERVIEW
1
1.1
Sainsbury s
1
1.2
Sainsbury Financial Tools
1
SAINSBURY RATIO ANALYSIS
1.
SAINSBURY’S OVERVIEW
Sainsbury is the UK’s third largest supermarket. Their main competitors are Tesco, Asda and Morrison. Presently, Sainsbury operates 504 supermarkets across the UK, employing approximately 150,000 employees1. 1.1
Sainsbury s
Sainsbury annual fiscal year ends in the third week of March each year. They previously used the UK GAAP ing format up until 2005 and in 2006 they changed over to the IFRS. Their auditor is PricewaterhouseCoopers. The company uses the going concern concept2. 1.2
Sainsbury Financial Tools
The financial tools used are the Income statement, Balance sheet, Cash flow statement and financial ratios3. Table 1.2 below shows the important figures extracted from the financial tools.
INCOME STATEMENT 1
2009 (£m)
2008 (£m)
2007 (£m)
2006 (£m)
Sainsbury Online www.j-sainsbury.co.uk This ensures that the company will continue to operate in the foreseeable future. 3 Financial information obtained from London Stock Exchange. Refer to Appendix 1, page… 2
Sales
18,911
17,837
17,151
16,061
Gross Profit
1,036
1,002
1,172
1,067
Total Operating Income BALANCE SHEET Goodwill Stocks
18,968
17,867
17,168
16,062
2009 (£m) 114 689 627 1591
2008 (£m) 114 681 719 1610
2007 (£m) 112 590 1128 1915
2006 (£m) 109 576 1080 3845
Cash & Equivalent
Total Current Asset Total Current 2919 2605 2721 4810 Liabilities Long Term Debt 2,177 2,084 2,090 2,178 CASH FLOW 2009 (£m) 2008 (£m) 2007 (£m) 2006 (£m) Net Cash 1,206 998 830 780 Generated from Operating Activities Proceeds from 390 198 106 164 disposal of Property, plant and equipment Dividends paid 218 178 140 131 to shareholders Cash at end of 599 601 765 842 year Trends of Financial Statements: Sales grew by 20% over the period 2006-2009. Responses to changes in the economy are effective, evident by a stable financial position and slight growth. Gross Profit increased slightly from 2006-2007 but declined slightly in 2008. There was a significant net profit increase from 2006-2007. Balance Sheet figures shows slight growth and some stability in stocks and goodwill. Liabilities decreased significantly from 2006-2007. This trend indicates that borrowing decreased due to high interest rates. Assets continue to decrease from as much as 20.6% for the period 2006-2008. Cash flow indicates that Sainsbury is liquid and has managed to maintain stability and slight growth. Sainsbury recorded £57 million in profits in 2009 from the sale of eight supermarkets. Because of this, they have sufficient cash to manage their operating activities, reduce overall debt, restructure the company and increase discounts and marketing. However there was a 28% decline in cash at year end. This might have occurred by the revamping of their value chain to adjust to economic changes.
Table 1.2: Sainsbury Key Financial Figures 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009) Despite the downturn, Sainsbury profits continued to increase. Gross profits dipped a bit in 2008 but the company had various strategies in place to emerge successful in 2008 – 2009. In this report, mostly the financial ratios are analysed to provide an overview of Sainsbury performance over the past two years. 2.
SAINSBURY RATIO ANALYSIS
According to Maclaney and Atrill (2002), ‘…ratios provide an overview of the business’s financial condition’. Similarly, Wood (2002) stated, ‘Ratio analysis is a first step in assessing an entity’. The effects of the downturn experienced by Sainsbury are demonstrated by the following ratios below. A four year trend analysis will highlight Sainsbury’s performance two years prior to the downturn and the two years during the downturn. 2.1
Profitability Ratio Analysis
Maclaney and Atrill (2002, p. 197) stated, ‘Profitability ratios provide an insight to the degree of success in achieving the purpose of the business’. The table below demonstrates Sainsbury profitability ratios.
Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Industry – 3.53%
Net Profit Margin (NPM) Industry – 0.92%
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
2009 (%)
2008 (%)
2007 (%)
2006 (%)
Remarks
5.48
5.62
6.83
6.64
(0.14% decrease from 2008, 1.35% decrease from 2007
(1.21% decrease from 2007)
(.19% increase from 2006)
GPM increased from 2006 to 2007 by 0.19%. In 2008, it fell by a margin of 1.21% from 2007. GPM in 2009 continued to fall in small figures.
1.43
NPM increased by 1.60% from 2006 to 2007. During the downturn in 2008, it fell by only 0.06% from 2007. However, it increased by 0.53% in 2009.
2.89
ROCE almost tripled from 2006 to 2007. In 2008, it fell by 0.53%. In 2009, the firm showed the largest increase over the past four years.
3.56
2.97
3.03
(0.59% increase from 2008, 0.53% increase from 2006)
(0.06% decrease from 2007)
(1.60% increase from 2006)
9.46
7.06
7.59
(2.40% increase from 2008, 1.87% increase from 2007)
(0.53% decrease from 2007)
(4.70% increase from 2006)
Table 2.1: Sainsbury Profitability Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009)
The ratios above illustrate a moderate decline in profitability in 2008 when compared to 2007. In 2008, the UK began to experience the effects of the downturn which is evident according to the table above. However, when comparing 2008 to 2009, the figures suggest that profitability increased by approximately 3% overall. Sainsbury responded to the economic slowdown through their profitability. The downward profitability in 2008 was most likely due to changes in policies and practices to tackle inflation and increases in food prices in a competitive industry. Furthermore, the market conditions instigated a change in purchasing behaviour which triggered Sainsbury to cut wastages by revamping their value chain and intensively increasing promotions. These actions showed growth results in 2009 as ROCE and NPM increased slightly. 2.1.1 Gross Profit Margin GPM over the 2008 and 2009 have decreased slightly by 1.35% due to the downturn but still maintain healthy figures which are above industry average. Interestingly though, sales increased throughout 2006 to 2009, however, expenses also increased contributing to the slight decrease in the GPM 4. Because of decreased disposable household income Sainsbury acted swiftly to diversify risks to ensure they maintain their GPM. 2.1.2 Net Profit Margin Table 2.1 revealed that NPM increased by 0.59% from 2008 to 2009 and by 0.53% over 2006 to 2009. These increases continue despite the economic slowdown showing their financial power. It is well above industry average of 0.92% because strategic plans were properly planned and executed and sales volume increased without increasing costs. 2.1.3 Return on Capital Employed
4
Refer to Table 1.2 on Page
ROCE from 2008 to 2009 increased by 20% mainly because of proceeds attained from property disposal, used to finance overall operations. From 2007 to 2008, however, it decreased slightly because of oil related costs and increased business rates. Nevertheless, the general trend from 2006 to 2009 indicates proper assets utilisation and investor confidence.
2.2
Liquidity Ratio Analysis
According to Robinson et. al (2009, p.795) liquidity ratios are ‘Financial ratios measuring the company’s ability to meet short-term obligations’. Sainsbury liquidity ratio analysis is illustrated in Table 2.2 below. 2009
2008
2007
2006
Remarks Ratio increased by 0.21 from 2006-2007, but from 2007-2009 it decreased slowly. Figures are in line with industry figure.
Current Ratio Industry – 0.70 : 1
0.66 : 1
0.71 : 1
0.80 : 1
0.59 : 1
Quick Acid Test Industry – 0.69 : 1
0.31 : 1
0.40 : 1
0.50 : 1
0.68 : 1
Sainsbury experienced a downward trend from 2006-2009 and have fallen behind the industry figure.
Shareholder’s Liquidity
1.27 : 1
1.92 : 1
1.74 : 1
0.98 : 1
Shareholder’s liquidity showed growth from 2006-2007 but declined in 2009.
Table 2.2: Sainsbury Liquidity Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009) 2.2.1 Current Ratio Table 2.2 above indicates that Sainsbury has adequate current assets to match their current liabilities; however in 2009 the current ratio dropped slightly below the industry average. Current assets are continuing to decrease most likely from investing rigorously in long-term ventures or because current liabilities are rising faster than current assets. Sainsbury used their liquid
assets to finance their business through marketing and promotions to make it profitable, hence profitable during the downturn. 2.2.2 Acid Test Ratio Acid Test Ratio illustrates a steady decline by almost 50% over 2006 to 2009. It continuously fell below the industry average as well. Nevertheless, Sainsbury has a remarkable debtor payment period5 and recovered debts quickly even during the downturn. Therefore, the decline in the quick ratio may have resulted from investing in long-term activities to ensure profitability and increase market share. 2.2.3 Shareholder’s Liquidity Shareholder’s Liquidity have increased during the downturn overall by 25% but declined in 2009. However, the figures from Table 2.2 illustrates that shareholders should be satisfied as Sainsbury is still managing to remain profitable well into the long-term. 2.3
Efficiency/Activity Ratio Analysis
Robinson et. al (2009, p.789) stated, ‘Activity ratios are ratios that measure how efficiently a company performs day-to-day tasks, such as the collection of receivables and management of inventory’.
2009 Debtor Days
5
2008
4
Refer to subheading 2.3.1 on Page …
4
2007 4
2006
Remarks
49
The ability of Sainsbury to recover debts improved tremendously
from 2006. However, from 2007-2009 the debtor payment figure remained constant. Creditor Days
60
Stock Turnover
14
56
62
114
15
13
53
In 2006, Sainsbury took a long time to repay their suppliers. From 20072009 their payment period to suppliers were shortened from 4 months to 2 months. Stock turnover has remained relatively stable during the downturn.
Table 2.3: Sainsbury Efficiency/Activity Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009) 2.3.1 Debtor Days Sainsbury has a relatively stable debtor payment period of only four days before, during and after the downturn. This indicates that they are adhering to policies in place to recover their debts at a cash strapped time when debtors may not have funds to make payments. However, being a supermarket, most of their sales are in cash which is the rationale of a high debtor payment figure. 2.3.2 Creditor Days The creditor days ratio reveals that Sainsbury obtains payment from their debtors before paying their creditors. During the downturn, their payments to suppliers were not affected because they had sufficient cash to finance themselves by utilising cash received from their debtors. One can assume that their creditors are very lenient given that Sainsbury is moderately liquid; they recover debts quickly but take approximately two months to pay suppliers. 2.3.3 Stock Turnover
Stock turnover is approximately fourteen days which is still slightly high because of the life-span foods and vegetables have to remain fresh. This means that stock needs to be rotated very often. Nonetheless, Sainsbury also stock household and domestic items which remains a long while to be rotated.
2.4
Investment Ratio Analysis 2009
Earnings per share (EPS)
Diluted Earnings per share
Beta Ratio
2008
2007
16.60
19.10
19.20
(Decreased by 2.50% from 2007 and 2.6% from 2007)
(Decreased by 0.10% from 2007)
(Increased by 15.40% from 2006)
16.40
18.60
18.90
(Decreased by 2.20% from 2008 and 2.50% from 2007
(Decreased by 0.30% from 2007)
(Increased by 15.10% from 2006)
0.73
0.55 (Decreased
-
(Increased by 0.18% from 2007)
2006 3.80
Remarks From 2006-2007, there was a 20% increase in EPS. From 2007-2008 there was 10 pence margin between the figures. It decreased in 2009 by 2.50%
3.80
DPS remained moderately stable during the downturn but decreased slightly by 2.20%
0.78
Beta ratio showed a slight decrease in 2007 but increased by a mere 0.18% in 2008.
by 0.28% from 2006)
Table 2.4: Sainsbury Investment Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009) 2.4.1 Earnings per Share EPS fell by 10 pence during the downturn and declined further by 26% in 2009, shareholders therefore received a lower rate per share in 2008-2009. However, balance sheet and cash flow statements reveal that shareholders are investing by acquiring properties to access more space for future expansion. 2.4.2 Diluted Earnings per Share DPS slightly declined by the same rate as EPS from 2008-2009. This is not a major concern for Sainsbury presently, since it shows that shareholders are
willing to forego some of their personal wealth to ensure the business remains profitable. 2.4.3 Beta Ratio Beta figures illustrates that shares are less volatile than the market since it remains at less than one. In 2008, beta ratio increased a little due to market conditions but remained under a benchmark figure of one.
2.5
Gearing Ratio Analysis
Maclaney and Atril (2002, p.197) stated, ‘Gearing is the relationship between the amount financed by the owners of the business and the amount contributed by outsiders’. Table
Gearing
2009
2008
2007
2006
Remarks
34.75
30.85
36.16
38.48
(Increased by 3.90% from 2008)
(Decreased by 5.31% from 2007 and 7.63% from 2006)
(Decreased by 2.3% from 2006)
Gearing figures showed a downward trend from 2006-2008 but recovered slightly in 2009 from 2008.
Table 2.5: Sainsbury Gearing Ratios 2006-2009 Source: London Stock Exchange (2009)/Researcher (2009)
2.5.1 Gearing Ratio The gearing ratio increased by 11% from 2008-2009 indicating that risks are increasing due to the changes that were made to survive the economic slowdown. Interest rates decreased considerably causing imports to be more costly and the gearing ratio to increase due to market volatility.
2.6
Limitations of Ratio Analysis
In analysing and evaluating Sainsbury ratios there were a few limitations6. 2.6.1 Information Issues During the downturn the ratios may not reflect the true overview of the company. The ratios can supply some information to Sainsbury performance or financial position but when used alone, it cannot suggest whether performance was good or poor. Additionally, information in the financial statements can be outdated during the year depending on when the financial year ends. It may not indicate the current financial status of the company especially before or during a downturn. Sometimes, at the end of the financial year, it may not present a true reflection of the overall year’s performance. 2.6.2 ing Issues The business can use creative ing to indicate enhanced performance which can be misleading to the s. Window-dressing can occur to improve current and quick ratios to make balance sheet and cash flow statement look better.
3.
ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF SAINSBURY FINANCIAL MARKET
Sainsbury operates in a highly competitive market. The UK supermarket industry is mainly dominated by four major supermarkets – Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury and Morrisons. Together they control approximately 75% of the 6
Limitation of Ratio Analysis, www.cbdd.wsu.edu/kewlcontent/
UK’s market share according to Figure 3 below7. The industry is mature and flat because growth is difficult, the market leaders are pursuing a low cost strategy and consumers are benefiting and increasingly demanding. Intense competition has accelerated resulting in the market leaders to become highly innovative to build market share by focusing on value, price and advertising while reinforcing excellent customer service.
17%
15.90%
Sainsbury Tesco Morrisons Asda
11.10%
31.60%
Fig. 3: Market Share of the Too Four Supermarkets in the UK Source: www.marketresearch.co.uk
3.1
Developments in the UK’s Financial Market
From 2008-2009 there were many changes occurring in the UK’s economy during the recession which is explained below.
3.1.1 The UK Labour Market The UK labour market was affected by the credit crisis. This created a chain reaction and unemployment began to increase from May to August, 2008 as illustrated in Figure 3.1.1. It rose by 164,000 which is the largest increase 7
www.marketresearch.co.uk
since 19908. The unemployment rate was 5.8% for the three months to September, 2008. This means that there was decreased disposable income as families have to now curb their spending.
Fig. 3.1.1: UK Unemployment rate July 2008 - July 2009 Source: Adapted from http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/ukeconomy-2009/
3.1.2 Disposable Income The annual rate of growth in average earnings excluding bonuses was 3.6% in the three months to September 20089. According to ONS, with earnings growth on a downward trend due to the weakening labour market and inflation rising, the squeeze on families’ real disposable income continued. 3.1.3 Inflation According to National Statistics Online10, Consumer Prices Index (I) annual inflation rate was 4.5% in October, 2008. The largest downward pressure on 8
Weekly Economic Briefing (2008) Office of National Statistics Online (2008). 10 www.statistics.gov.uk 9
the I annual rate came from transport costs where the price of fuels and lubricants fell that year but rose in 200911. Inflation causes prices to increase and the general market shrink since consumers experience difficulty to purchase goods and services12.
Fig. 3.1.3: UK Inflation Rate October 2006 – October 2008 Source: Adapted from http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/ukeconomy-2009/
3.1.4 Interest Rates Decreases Bank interest rate was decreased from 4.5% in October, 2008 to 1.1% in September, 2009. Nevertheless, consumers are able to borrow more because of the low rates. Low interest rates causes savings to decrease and the weakness of the sterling causes imports to be more expensive. Figure 3.1.4 illustrates the UK’s interest rates as stated by the Bank of England.
11
This affected the UK financial market significantly since the price of oil is pegged to the sterling pound. 12 When unemployment increases, inflation (general rise in prices) also increases.
Fig. 3.1.4: Bank of England Interest Rate March 2006 – September 2008 Source: Adapted from http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/ukeconomy-2009/
3.1.5 Exchange Rate The UK exchange rate for 2008-2009 decreased during this period because of a weakened sterling. From April, 200813 it continued to decline reaching an all time low at 1.0219 GBP IN December, 2008. This made exported goods cheaper but imported goods more expensive causing an adverse effect on businesses.
3.2
Developments in the UK’s Supermarket Industry
The supermarkets in the UK are no longer limiting themselves to just supplying food products. In light of financial turmoil, in 2008 they spread their 13
In March, 2009 the pound began to increase in value and stood its ground at 1.06 GBP thus far. http://www.economywatch.com/exchange-rate/uk-pound-sterling.html
risks at a time when food inflation soared, to diverse into areas such as finance, mobile and broadband markets14. This diversification provide avenues should a slowdown occur in food product sales, they can achieve sales in other areas. In 2008, the supermarket industry recorded £123 billion in consumer spending a huge increase when compared to £119.8 billion in 2007. This shows clearly that during the downturn, their strategies and financial strength were successful in remaining competitive. Table 3.2 illustrates a PESTEL analysis of the developments in the UK supermarket industry during 2008-2009.
14
www.fooddeserts.org/images/supshare.htm
POLITICAL FACTORS
•
Taxation Policy – the government decreased the rate of corporation tax from 30% to 28%, which will save supermarkets significant sums of money. This means that supermarkets profits will be greater.
•
Government intervention – Government is investigating claims of price fixing among the major supermarkets and this poses a threat as they may be forced to curtail prices.
•
The competition commission is constantly monitoring the supermarket industry.
ECONOMIC FACTORS
•
Rise in unemployment – the UK unemployment figure rose to 164,000 in 2008; the largest increase since 1990 (Weekly Economic Briefing, 2008).
•
Inflation – Inflation rate decreased, triggered by the sharp fall in the price of crude oil.
•
Interest Rate – Decreased by almost 2% in 2008, which can increase consumer spending.
•
Disposable Income – ONS revealed that with earnings growth on a downward trend due to the weakening labour market, families’ real disposable income can be ‘squeezed’. This can affect sales fro supermarkets.
• SOCIAL FACTORS
•
Lifestyle Changes – People are purchasing healthy foods and are being more health conscious.
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS
•
•
During the downturn, more people are starting to prepare homecooked meals; a change in trend from eating out which is expensive due to food inflation. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
•
Green Issues – Supermarkets are investing in green issues by using less plastic, recycling wastes and shifting to environmentally friendly procedures. Profits are used for this but sales can increase because consumers are demanding environmentally friendly products.
Increase in Technology – New technologies can make service more convenient and increases customer satisfaction, leading to a competitive advantage and increase in sales.
LEGAL FACTORS
•
Foreign trade restrictions – Imports attract taxes and tariffs making goods more expensive. Customers may then demand substitutes.
Table 3.2: PESTEL Analysis of the UK Supermarket Industry 2008-2009 Source: www.marketresearch.co.uk
3.3
Effects of Financial Market on Sainsbury
In 2008, Sainsbury experienced a slower sales growth when compared to past trends. The effects of the downturn caused Sainsbury to put measures in place to increase profitability in 2009. Some of the changes to strategies they made are discussed below. EFFECTS OF THE DOWNTURN
CHANGES MADE TO ADAPT
Increase in unemployment, rise in food inflation and decrease in disposable income.
Household budgets were clearly under pressure from the effects of the downturn. Sainsbury had to slash the cost of essentials and basic products as customers faced the biggest squeeze on income in 50 years. Marketing strategy shifted to focus on cost and their value chain was adjusted to improve layout, increase space, future hedge with suppliers, and shed off unnecessary costs. Customers were demanding low cost products and Sainsbury adjusted to suit demands.
Decreased Interest rate and decreased I annual inflation rate.
Sainsbury benefited from decreased interest and I inflation rates as more customers were able to take advantage of lower borrowing. Sainsbury took advantage of this by lowering prices, and intensified marketing of their cheaper own label goods.
Lifestyle changes
As the economy dipped, more people chose to prepare homecooked meals to eliminate the costs attached to eating out. Penny-pinched consumers depended on Sainsbury to provide low cost vegetables and meats from tied in suppliers.
Competitive rivalry, customer loyalty
Fierce competition caused Sainsbury to focus on value, price and advertising while reinforcing excellent customer service Sainsbury annual report (2009) stated that a clear strategy was developed to focus on five main areas: great product at fair prices, increase growth of non-food ranges, additional marketing channels to reach more customers, increase space and active property management (includes disposal of property and investing in increasing space in profitable areas). Sainsbury increased promotions and marketing strategies such as ‘Making Sainsbury’s Great Again’, loyalty discount cards, online shopping, cheaper and high quality own brand goods and increase in technology and faster checkout time. They additionally branched out spreading risks into the financial sector, oil-related areas and department stores.
Table 3.3: Effects of the downturn on Sainsbury Source: Sainsbury Annual Reports 2008 and 2009
4.
‘WHAT IF’ ANALYSIS OF SAINSBURY
REFERENCES Sainsbury Annual Report, 2008. [Online] Available from: http://www.j-sainsbury.co.uk [cited 14 October, 2009]. Company Profile for Sainsbury Plc, 2009. [Online] Available from: http://www. ONS 2009. [Online] Available from: http://www.ons.gov.uk
[cited 14 October, 2009]. UK Pound Sterling Exchange Rate. [Online] http://www.economywatch.com/exchange-rate/uk-pound-sterling.html
BIBLIOGRAPHY Maclaney, E and Atrill, P. 2002. ing: An Introduction. 2nd ed. London: Prentice Hall. Robinson, T.R et. al. 2009. International Financial Statement Analysis. 10th ed. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
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