River Erosion, Floods And Monga In Bangladesh 1e3a42

RIVER EROSION

IN

BANGLADESH

Bangladesh is a riverine country which is criss-crossed by more than 230 rivers, 57 of them are international, with a stretch of 2,400 kilometer of bank line. The country is a living delta formed of alluvial soil which is very prove to erosion with any degree of river activity or water movement. 283 locations as well as 85 towns and growth centers along the long bank line are seriously affected by river erosion almost every year. Besides, another 1200 kilometer of bank line is vulnerable to erosion. Across Bangladesh hundreds of families have been rendered homeless because of soil erosion and rising water levels in almost all major rivers coupled with incessant rains. They live a floating life: there are more or less 4.0 million such home less people in the country lead floating life. In most cases such floating families live on public land such as char lands, embankments, abandoned railway trucks, slopes of highways etc. Strong currents in the rivers Pa, Jamuna and Brahmaputra have devoured vast low-lying and riverside areas as well as seriously damaged standing crops and properties. Rangpur Dinajpur Rural Services (RDRS) staff report from Kurigam that since the 1998 flood about 795 families were displaced due to river erosion in the char areas (small Sand Island) in the river Brahmaputra in Kurigram district. Some 10 to 15% % of these families have been displaced again by the recent soil erosion. Displaced families are 350 from three Unions of Rajibpur, Thana, 200 from three Unions of Chilmari Thana, 145 families from Ulipur Thana and 100 families from three Unions of Kurigram Sadar (centre) Thana. Officials from the national Water Development Board (WDB) state that different flood protection embankments, roads and housing establishments in and around the rivers Pa and Jamuna are now under severe threat due to "massive" river erosion. The WDB has already sent messages to their local authorities to take adequate steps to cope with the devastation. It has also sent experts to different vulnerable areas to see the situation and take precautionary measures to save the embankments. In different areas they are dumping sand bags along with bricks and stones to restore the embankments from erosion. The rise of global sea level by the end of AD 2050 would mean that there is a high risk of coastal inundation by sea water. In the case of Bangladesh the projected 1.44m rise of sea level would inundate 16% of the populated land, displace 13% of the population and lose 10% of the GDP. The effect of sea level rise is more critical, since the Bengal delta is subsiding. River currents strengthened by rising sea levels have devoured half of Bangladesh's biggest island in 40 years, leaving half a million people homeless, researchers said. From a size of 6,400 square kilometers (3,968 square miles) in 1965, Bhola Island near the mouth of the Bay of Bengal is now only half its original size. If the erosion continues at the same rate, it will completely disappear over the next four decades. Rising sea levels were responsible for the erosion of coastal islands such as Bhola that were not previously vulnerable to the problem. The erosion of Bhola Island only started in the 1960s. Before that the size was stable and only a small amount of erosion took place on one side, but from the mid-1960s the erosion began and the rate has accelerated over the years. Recently, in some parts of Chittagong coastal belt, erosion has increased at an alarming rate. A vast area including the export processing zone, the naval establishment, and a large industrial estate could be in danger if the present rate of erosion continues. Port facilities will have to be adjusted to a higher sea level. However, in a country like Bangladesh, where inland areas are occupied by agriculture or settlements and protected by dikes, the mangrove zone would become narrower by erosion and might even disappear.

1

River Erosion Project The project was launched on 1 April 2004 with the mission to address the development needs of the communities, who have been displaced by river erosion and those who are living under the threat of being eroded in the near future. The five year £1.3 million pound project (funded by Community Fund and several other Trusts and donors) is being implemented in four upazila locations in Gaibandha district, a badly affected area in Bangladesh. The project is working in collaboration with 5 local partners NGOs with the aim of: a) Strengthening and ing the capacity of the target community and institutions to cope with natural disasters; b) Providing alternative livelihoods opportunities through, skills development, technology transfer and small enterprise development; c) Developing and ing basic infrastructure services (water, health, housing), and enable poor people to access existing government services; d) Raising awareness on basic rights of the community, with particular emphasis on land rights and rights of women. Area of Work The project activities specifically will provide extensive livelihood skills training and technology , developing and deploying about 800 community extensions skilled in various trades, establishing 4 cluster villages, which will be equipped with housing, water, sanitation and other health and education services and constructing 3 multipurpose shelters. The project will reach directly 20,000 men, women and children within the project period 2004-2009. Practical Action will play a key role in technology innovation and dissemination, skills training, enterprise development, and other activities related to disaster mitigation, market access and infrastructure services. Partner organization will play a direct role in services such as health and education. The project has attempted to take a holistic approach to tackle the poverty situation, mobilizing a broad range of interventions to a sustainable livelihood system among the community.

FLOODS

IN

BANGLADESH

Over flowing or influx of water is called a flood. Riverine floods occur when the amount of water flowing in a drainage basin or watershed (the area that collects and directs the surface water into the streams that drain it) exceeds the carrying capacity of rivers which drain the area. Flooding can occur due to river overflow or surface runoff. Flooding propensity in an area can vary greatly with a change in the water carrying capacity of a drainage basin and/or with a change in land elevation with respect to the base level (the depth to which a river can cause erosion) of rivers - the ocean. For example, an increase in the water carrying capacity of a drainage system and/or an increase in the elevation of adjacent land on either side of a drainage system will reduce flooding propensity in an area. Therefore, the flood problem and the solution can be analyzed in the context of two fundamental parameters: water carrying capacity of rivers and land elevation. The country is criss-crossed by more than 230 rivers, 57 of them are international. More than 1,000 million tones of sediment through Bangladesh annually of which about five per cent remain. Flood in Bangladesh is a normal annual phenomenon. Being a low lying country at least 20% area is flooded every

2

year. In case of severe flood, 68% are inundated. In Bangladesh flood can be classified into 5 categories. 1. River-induced flood 2. Rainfall-induced flood 3. Flash flood 4. Cyclone-induced flood 5. Tidal flood The Bangladesh Observer has informed that more than 7,000 people have been killed and the country has suffered economic losses to the tune of US $ 14.24 billion due to 11 major floods since 1954. The highest death toll, 2,397 people, was recorded in 1988 but the largest economic losses, 3.5 billion dollars, were ed in 1998.

Possible Causes of Flood The factors responsible for the recent low frequency floods in Bangladesh can be analyzed in of shortterm (immediate causes) and long-term processes. Evident phenomena that take place prior to and during floods, which can easily be related as plausible causes for floods, are termed short-term processes. On the other hand, the slowly occurring phenomena which can not be tied to the flood problem directly are termed long-term processes.

Short-Term Causes 1. Monsoon downpour: An increased amount of precipitation can cause flooding. An above normal monsoon downpour in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna drainage system is thought to be the primary cause of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh. It is not known, however, if the heavy precipitation is actually an effect of other processes such as the greenhouse effect or destruction of forests in the upstream region. 2. Synchronization of Flood Peaks: The synchronization of flood peaks for the major three rivers took place within a two week time period, causing a sudden increase in water level in virtually all areas of the country.

Long-Term Causes 1. Level Rise of Local Relative Sea: At the present time sea level is rising globally. If sea level rises in an area at a rate faster than the rate of land aggradations due to sedimentation, then land elevation decreases. Any decrease in land elevation can cause increased inundation by rivers overflowing at bank full stage 2. Inadequate Sediment Accumulation: The only way for land to counter the effects of a rising sea is for sediment to accumulate at a rate that is sufficient to keep pace with the rate of sea level rise. Limited data show that the average sediment accumulation rate for the last few hundred years in the coastal areas of Bangladesh is 5-6 mm/year, which is not enough to keep pace with the rising sea level. 3. Riverbed Aggradations: Due to relatively higher settling velocity, the large-grained sediments are deposited near the source area on the riverbeds, forming sand bars. The river gradient decreases rapidly if sedimentation continues on the riverbeds. Because of low gradients and high sediment loads, the riverbeds of most of the rivers in Bangladesh aggrades very quickly 4. Deforestation in the Upstream Region: A rapid increase in population in the Indian Subcontinent over the course of the present century has resulted in an acceleration of deforestation in the hills of Nepal to meet the increasing demand for food and fuel wood. Deforestation of steep slopes is assumed to lead to accelerated soil erosion and landslides during monsoon precipitations. This in turn is believed to contribute to devastating floods in the downstream regions such as in Bangladesh

3

5. Damming of Rivers: Damming of a river reduces the velocity of water flow downstream from the dam. As a result of reduced velocity, the sediments carried by the river start to settle down faster on the riverbed, causing riverbed aggradations and in turn reducing the water carrying capacity of the river. The Farakka Barrage on the Ganges has already caused tremendous damage to the agriculture, navigation, environment, and hydrodynamic equilibrium in Bangladesh. 6. Soil Erosion due to Tilling: Plugging makes the land surface more susceptible to soil erosion. Surface run-off can easily wash away the topsoil from cultivated land. This surface erosion reduces land elevation, which in turn increases flood intensity in an area. 7. Excessive Development: Rapid population growth creates extra pressure on the land of already overcrowded Bangladesh. Agricultural lands give way to housing developments and roads. This rapid development and urbanization must have aggravated the flooding problem in Bangladesh. 8. Seismic (Earthquake) and Neotectonic Activities: Bangladesh lies on the Indian lithosphere plate, which is pushing against the Asian plate, causing growth of the Himalayas and occasional earthquakes in the region. Earthquakes cause movement of the land, and this can change the topography of the region and alter river courses. A sudden change in a river course can cause substantial flooding. Neotectonic activities (recent movements in the Earth's crust) are affecting river courses in the area 9. Greenhouse Effect: The world is about to enter a period of rapid warming. The effect on flooding of a higher base level resulting from a rising sea level has already been discussed earlier in this section. The greenhouse effect will also increase the amount of rainfall and storminess, which will further aggravate the flood problem.

Possible Solutions of the Flood Problems Solution of flood problem can be divided in two types. They are as follows:

Structural Solutions Structural solutions call for the engineering of structures such as embankments along rivers, dams, drains, reservoirs, and other structures designed to control the natural flow of rivers. Structural solutions treat the problem section of a river basin in isolation; and generally do not take into the possible geologic consequences. Structural solutions are in practice on a limited scale in Bangladesh as part of a flood control project.

Geologic Solutions The following paragraphs discuss possible ways of helping to increase land elevation and capacity of the river basin. Structural elements such as dams, sluice gates, along with dredging and dispersion of sediments will have to be applied in order to achieve the desired goal of increasing land elevation and capacity of the drainage basin. This will in turn help mitigate the flood problem in Bangladesh. 1. Dredging and Re-excavation of Rivers: Continuous dredging of the rivers and channels and dispersion of the dredged sediments on the delta plain will not only increase elevation of the land, but will also increase the capacity of the rivers 2. Preventing Land Degradation: Suspended sediments adhere to the stems of plants. Farmers can be advised to leave a few inches of stem remaining from their rice crops during harvesting before the rainy season. They should also be given more information about the problem of soil erosion 3. Flood Preparedness: An understanding of how individuals have adapted to and are affected by floods may suggest new and less costly ways of reducing flood damages. Indigenous solutions such as the building of suitable housing, shelters and infrastructures also deserve serious consideration. 4

Technical Review of the Bangladesh Flood Action Plan The World Bank's Bangladesh Flood Action Plan (FAP) fails to adequately address the most serious flooding problem in Bangladesh: Coastal Flooding due to cyclone-driven storm surges which have killed over a million people in the past three decades. a) The FAP cannot be justified economically on flood control grounds, and instead relies on the economic benefits of expected increases in food production, in effect becoming a food action plan. Yet, the most costeffective way to increase food production in Bangladesh is through wider use of tube wells and low lift pumps for dry season irrigation, technologies completely independent of flood control. b) River channelization by FAP embankments will increase the risk of flood damage for downstream areas and for land and populations between embankments. c) No proven technology exists for protecting FAP embankments from erosion by the migrating rivers of Bangladesh. The alternative of embankment retreat in the face of advancing migrating rivers has never been successful in Bangladesh due to problems with land acquisition and population displacement. d) Careful and regular maintenance, which are essential to the survival of FAP embankments, cannot be assured given the high annual cost which must be borne in perpetuity by the Bangladeshi government which has a record of neglecting maintenance of existing flood control embankments. e) Channelization of the heavily sediment-laden rivers of Bangladesh will likely lead to sedimentation between the embankments, reducing flood control capacity and requiring continual expensive raising of embankment heights. f) Earthquakes capable of destroying the FAP embankments system can be expected to occur during the lifetime of the project, causing floods greater in severity that would occur without embankments. g) The FAP is likely to exacerbate existing drainage problems which already cause severe flooding from intense local rainfall resulting in water logging and crop failures. h) By blocking fish migration paths between rivers and submerged floodplain fields, the embankments of the FAP will likely result in significant adverse effects on the nation's fresh water fisheries, the source of 80 percent of the protein consumed in Bangladesh. i) The FAP will require forced displacement of up to eight million people, and will threaten the livelihoods of millions of other Bangladeshi farmers, creating significant political and social obstacles which could threaten the entire project. j) There has been minimal opportunity for participation by local communities who are intended to benefit from the FAP and whose cooperation is essential to the Plan's success according to the United Nations Development Programme. k) Many flood management alternatives, such as high ground refuges, flood warning systems and flood proofing, are likely to be significantly more cost-effective in reducing river flood damages than the structural flood control approach of the FAP. Since Bangladesh is a small part of a bigger hydrodynamic system that comprises several countries in the region, mutual understanding and cooperation among the co-riparian countries will be necessary in order to formulate any long-term and permanent solution to the flood problem. However, extensive dredging of rivers and reoccupation of abandoned channels in Bangladesh, and dispersion of the dredged materials on the low-lying floodplains can increase land elevations and the capacity of rivers. 5

MONGA

IN

BANGLADESH

Monga, a near-famine situation which hits the northern districts every year, has forced poor people either to borrow money from usurers at an excessively high interest or to sell their labour in advance at an unusually low rate to keep their families from starvation. The immediate impact of Monga is increased unemployment rates, and consequently reduced family incomes, food security and nutrition levels. The Monga period spans from mid-August to late November (Bhadra to mid Agrahayan in the Bangla calendar) in parts of Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Gaibandha, Rangpur, Panchagarh and Thakurgaon districts. Farm workers in thousands make their way to the capital for jobs. Many of them opt for pulling rickshaws, the most easily available work in Dhaka's informal day-labour market. According to the researchers, rickshaw owners also typically cash in on the rising demand and double the charges for rickshaw rentals - from the usual rate of Tk 40 to 50 a day to Tk 80 to 90 per day. As they become unemployed around this time every year, many sell their labour in advance and stay with their families. Some start begging and plying rickshaws while many leave for Bogra, Dhaka and other places for jobs. enger buses leaving the Kurigram, Rangpur, Nilphamari, Gaibandha bus terminals are usually overloaded with poor people. The poor people swamp less expensive buses, hoping to get to places where they can earn some money. 1. Mass migration to slums of Dhaka 2. Rich and local strongmen ruthlessly try to elbow out thousands of landless families 3. Hundreds of trafficked children forced into slavery 4. Cold Wave Kills Poor and Children in Bangladesh The wages of day-labourers have slumped in the monga-hit northern districts forcing the destitute people to migrate to other places including the capital for better wages. In Bogra, where hundreds of people from Kurigram, Gaibandha and Nilphamari gathered to find a job, the employers pay a labourer hardly Tk 30 for eight hours' service. Both the labourers and local land-owners said the wage rate in Bogra did not increase in the last five years and it comes down to a half during the monga season. Poor people at the Nasri bazaar were seen buying 1 kg or half a kg rice, potato or arum to feed their families as they cannot buy fish or vegetables. Women labourers are more vulnerable than males to the extreme poverty as they do not find work in these hard days. Despite being a part of the rice and other crop-growing area of the country, Kurigram is the most vulnerable area in the country, and almost every year the period from October to December brings on the phenomenon of 'monga' or food shortage where the poorer people go hungry because of lack of employment opportunities, and no croplands of their own to harvest. Natural calamities like drought and famine, river erosion and flooding, extreme cold weather and extreme heat affect the people of Kurigram and nearby areas almost every year. According to reliable source, a large number of children belonging to the age group of 8 and 12 years are engaged in odd jobs for earning their livelihood instead of attending school, as their poverty-stricken parents are unable to them. The poor farmers find little incentive in educating their children and are engaging the latter in income generating work like cattle grazing, rickshaw pulling and in restaurants. The children sell their labour for poor wages and they are subjects to ill-treatment and harassment by their masters. They are to endure oppression for the sake of survival .The marginal and the landless farmers have four to six or seven children in average (The Independent, November 10, 2004). Non-government organisations (NGOs) in monga-affected areas in the district are realising loan installments from borrowers, ignoring their hardships. At places, borrowers, pressed by NGO employees, take loan from 6

moneylenders at high interest rate and pay weekly installments. There are many instances that poor people who took loan from NGOs are borrowing from moneylenders at high interest rates to pay their weekly installments. The situation is worse in rural areas. Many loan recipients this correspondent talked to said they may starve or remain half-fed but have to pay NGO installments in time. Finding no way, poor people are selling poultry birds, goats, cattle, trees and even household utensils to pay loan installment. Some observers said NGOs are getting loans from foreign donors for poverty alleviation but a few of them are doing the right job. Many NGOs have reduced their education, sanitation and other developing programs and are now simply earning profit by giving loans to the poor at high interest rates, they said, when ed, officials of some NGOs itted that they are have continued the loan realisation despite the monga for the good of borrowers (Daily Star, November 9, 2004). In many cases, farmers are compelled to sell their property due to the burden of standing agricultural loan. Consequently, some of these frustrated unemployed persons are committing crimes in different areas (The Independent, November 11, 2004). A Bengali daily (Prothom Alo, October 26, 2004) commented extensively in an editorial calling for durable solution to the "Monga" situation in the northwest. It had also decried that inactive role of the NGOs, in particular big NGOs. It referred to the general perception that NGOs should be in places where government cannot reach. Despite this, there were no actions by the NGOs, the editorial regretted. What the editorial had left unsaid is that there is also a general belief that NGOs serve only accessible areas and shy away from remote and inaccessible areas. At the end, the editorial explained they hope that the government attaches appropriate priority to provide relief to the "Monga"-hit people in the northern districts.

Concrete Manifestations of Monga

 T he poorest households are pushed into distress conditions, and become compelled to sell their assets for survival. Monga affected families are taking maximum one meal per day. Pregnant, children, lactating mothers including elderly people are suffering from malnutrition. Rate of diseases increase due to malnutrition and distressed life conditions. Theft and hijacking increase in the monga affected areas. Poor vulnerable people are changing their professions. Unrest and domestic violence tend to increase. Able-bodies boys and men migrate to cities and more resourceful rural regions of the country. Babies are born underweight and suffer malnutrition from their first days onward. Child education stagnates. Loan from non-institutional sources increased. Disabled and elderly people of the families are neglected and suffer in particular. Increased numbers of beggars. Labor pledging in advance.

Major Causes of Monga a) After transplanting Aman crops, the men and women have no works and that is why they are sitting idle. As there is no work, they only spoiled their deposited money, wealth etc without creating any things; b) Seasonal crises occur with various degrees of severity in different years during approximately the same period leading to food deprivation. c) The Monga period is generally from September to last of November in each year. When the new paddy harvest began at the end of November, the Monga goes off. Let us have a look into the poverty scenario of the country, especially in the northern parts of the country. 7

In our context, it will be more optimistic to eradicate poverty at all. We can reduce the poverty level or percent from 49.8 to at least 30-35 percent. We can not reduce or eradicate the poverty due to disaster, such as droughts, flood, cyclones, tornadoes and earthquakes. When flood management or mitigation is good, then surely it is possible to reduce poverty with some scope for employment generation. In a flood (which is general phenomena of Gaibandha, Kurigram and the other areas) we do not only loose the life of people but also properties and bring the water-borne diseases including diarrhoea, cholera etc. If its management is properly designed and implemented then surely it creates some positive effect, which ensures some employment generation in the hardship days of jobless people in the ‘Monga’ areas. It is known to all that Bangladesh is the disaster prone country of the world. Every bi-yearly the flood occurs in a drastic manner. In normal flood one-third area of the country and in devastating flood, two-third of the areas is flooded. And this is normal feature of the country. From the history of flood, it is known to us that flood occured in 1954,1955, 1974, 1987, 1988, 1997, 1998 and recent 2004. In these floods heavy properties and crops yields are loosed. In the flood of 1988, 61% of the country was covered with flood water and in 1998, 68% of the country went under water. Among the different years of flood, the flood in the year of 1998 was more disastrous. By the flood of the year 2004, only Boro crops of haor areas were damaged. The major cause of this devastating flood was heavy rainfall (which was more than that of previous years). The capital city, Dhaka was also water-logged for a period of about 3 weeks. From the data source on flood control measures, it is seen that 35% of total area of the country is freed from flood and that improves the socio-economic condition of the flood free zone with the increased agricultural production. Yet the northern areas are in the risk of ‘Monga’. Like other parts of the country, here industrial development is less and that is why less scope for unemployment person. This is one parameter to create Monga situation. Every year droughts of varying severity occur from northern areas to different parts of the country. About 2.3 million ha of cropped land are severely affected by drought during the season. Severe drought between 1967 and 1982 caused considerable losses of crops. The yield of Aman crops is severely curtailed at 40-50% in an area of about 0.50 million hectare to about 0.60 million ha. The environmentalists say that due to global climate changes in future, drought prone areas may increase and which will create more and more problem especially in ‘Monga’ areas. So rain fed agriculture should be in practice. The major problems of ‘Monga’ areas are erosion (soil water erosion), nutrient depletion, water logging, salinisation, acidification, burial of fertile land by sandy alluvium and river bank erosion. These are so active not only in northern areas but also other parts of the country that it is beyond our imagination. By the environmental study, it is known that deforestation in the Himalayan water-shed in Nepal and India, in the hills of Tripura, Meghalaya, Assam and the Chittagong Hill Tracts and Sylhet hills of the country affect the down stream erosion and sedimentation because of higher sediment load from the upstream. For ecological balance, 25% coverage by forest is much needed. But in these ‘Monga’ areas the percent so far our knowledge goes is about 10% -15% of total areas. Deforestation has tremendously increased during the past 30 years. Huge numbers of tree plantation and nursery is being done with green revolution, yet it will taken time to cover up deforestation.

Response of Government & Other Agencies The central government and some Union Parishad authorities have taken initiatives to face the monga situation in this region. The regular VGF program has been increased with resources to reach out to additional hard-core poor families under different packages. Statistical information regarding the actual coverage of these measures is not available. Among CARE’s key informants are a District Commissioner 8

and several Upazila Nirbahi Officers who confirm that there is no systematic approach in these responses. Most interventions by UP and Upazila officials are of small scale, and generally scattered. All government officials resented the critical tone in most newspaper reporting on the response to this year’s monga. In some localities, army staff has been deployed to monitor the process and the local government’s response.

People’s Ability to Cope with Current Situation The households that have been most affected by monga are coping with the situation by taking food of inferior quality, and by skipping meals. The array of households’ responses further includes the sale of labor in advance, or taking loan from money-lenders at high interest rates. The relief distribution on behalf of the government is found insufficient. Particularly vulnerable are women, children, elderly and ethnic minority people, as they tend to have limited options in of social capital and safety nets. The government has initiated a programme to sell rice at subsidized price and provide relief through 'vulnerable group feeding' (VGF) programme. Some piecemeal private relief operations have also been going on to overcome the problem. But as is expected, the programs couldn't keep pace with the massive need. WFP estimates that one million children in Bangladesh are at risk of acute malnutrition and 500,000 pregnant and nursing women also are extremely vulnerable.

Temporary Solutions Government programs: The VGF, 'Food for work' etc. are available to mitigate the problem. But it seems insufficient in response to the acuteness of the problem as well as the time of starting the programme seems inappropriate. Since the problem occurs almost every year, the government should have preparation for every year and the programme should start from at least September. Private relief operations: Private relief operations from different organisations and persons seem to be effective in dealing with the problem. Concerted private relief operations can be more effective in handling natural calamities in Bangladesh. If there is an acceptable coordinating body to manage the private relief operations, the volume of relief will increase as well as its efficient allocation and distribution can be ensured. Therefore, they can form a fund to operate relief operations in any future emergency such as monga. It would reduce our dependency on foreign donations and relief too. Buy labour, sell loans: This can be a strategy of financial institutions and NGOs. Specialised financial institutions working in this region such as Rajshahi Krishi Unnoyan Bank, Grameen Bank, Rangpur Dinajpur Rural Service etc. may take special development programmes in this area so that they can buy surplus labour for their special projects targeting Monga period. They can sell lump-sum loans to buy labour for the period, that is, people will pay back loan by giving labour. Pre-cautionary measures from June: Some precautionary measures such as alerting people for that situation, motivating them for precautionary savings can be effective. Overall, high attention from government and non-government organisations are necessary to avoid the situation.

Long-Term Solutions Strengthening NGO activities: Our NGOs are always claiming that they are contributing substantially to the development of the country. Their claim is now under question in the backdrop of monga. Various NGOs are now engaged in these areas with different projects. Since NGO activities do not have significant impact on income generations of the poor people of these areas, now time has come to bring the NGO activities into ability. It is a long-standing desire that there should be a regulatory body which can monitor and evaluate NGO activities. It is very surprising that these NGOs cannot take projects to overcome only two-month monga-period of a certain area, while they are running crore Taka projects in different areas.

9

Therefore, the NGOs that are active in these areas may be urged to take short and medium-term projects to help the poor people come-out of the monga cycle. If one member from each family can be brought into income-generating activities, the situation will be much different. Revitalising rural banking activities: It is also widely discussed that our rural agricultural banking system is not so much effective in eradicating poverty through their loan-programs. Since in most cases bank provide collateral-based loan, most of the poor-people cannot afford/obtain it. Therefore, it seems necessary to revitalise the rural banking system so that they can help rural poor people to come out of the poverty confine. For this, they need to come forward with innovative collateral-free loan or participatory-basis loan programme. Here participatory-basis loan means bank will actively participate in the invested business and bank staffs will monitor the production. After final product, profit and loss will be shared between the bank (lender) and farmer (recipient) according to the contract, at the same time bank will collect its loan. Or, any other innovative programme a bank can undertake to overcome monga in October and November each year. Enhancing economic activities: Setting a target of eradicating monga in some parts of Bangladesh can be a symbol of eradicating poverty from that part of the country. For this purpose, some medium and long term measures should be taken by both government and non-government organisations. Pre- and post-monga measures are necessary. Post monga measures may include confessional loans for different income generating activities such as poultry-farming, vegetables and other crop production, handicrafts making, flower plantation, valuable tree plantation, fishing etc. so that people can come out from poverty trap. Some small and medium scale industries, agro-processing industries can be set up in these areas to reduce the unemployment situation. Besides these, there are many other ways to enhance economic activities in these areas.

Conclusion From the recommendation of the study it may be hoped that the findings of impact evaluation will successfully develop greater understanding of the Monga phenomenon itself and it will flag decisive policy for Monga risk management in the better future for the people of northern districts. The findings of the study should be implemented on emergency basis with emergency fund for the welfare of the ‘Monga’. It should not only be concentrated on the paper or reports. There should be a reality for fund utilisation. We, the planners and executors must do something for them. Much time has been spent on seminar, symposium on it and now let us have look into the reality and do something for them. It is expected that the government and non-government organizations will come forward with appropriate and effective planning to drive out "monga" from Bangladesh. It would be a one-step forward to alleviate poverty.

10