Application Of It In Weather Forecasting 4v7231

APPLICATION OF I.T. IN WEATHER FORECASTING

What Is A Weather Forecast?  Weather forecasting is predicting what the weather will be like at a certain time in the near future, in a given location.  Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere at a given place and using scientific understanding of atmospheric process to project how the atmosphere will change.  Different situations need different types

For example, Take one situation of a Plane Pilot. Captain Ryan Jet is about to land a plane at Wellington Airport in New Zealand.

What does he need to know as he brings the plane in for landing?  

The aircraft pilot needs to know about: 1.Visibility 2.The probability of fog 3.Precipitation 4.Wind speed 5.Wind direction 6.probability of frost or ice

Why Weather Forecasting Important? Weather forecasting is important for a number of reasons: 1. The first, main reason is that it saves lives. Weather forecasting helps when things like natural disasters occur such as tornadoes, floods, hurricanes. • For example, people who live near the water need to know if there is a hurricane coming towards them in advance so they can prepare for it and evacuate. Weather forecasting can predict when those natural disasters are imminent.

The more warning people have the better they can prepare and the least likely they are to die due to such natural disasters. 2. It helps in following farm operation: I) To irrigate the crop or not II) When to apply fertilizer or not. III) Whether to start complete harvesting or to withhold it. 3. It helps in transportation and storage of food grains.

Fore ca s ting w ea the r in the pa st

• In the 1920s weather balloons, which would provide weather data such as temperature and wind at various levels of the atmosphere, were launched from different locations.  • Once we had this upper air data, the first forecast models were devised.  • By the late 1940s weather radar was launched.  By the late 1980s “Doppler” radar was developed.

source: http://www.cocorahs.org/media/docs/radar_basics.df

How a weather radar works ? • • • •

Sending radar pulses Listening for return signals Determining height Calibrating intensity of return

• Radar now allowed meteorologists to view and display severe weather systems as well.  • This increased the accuracy and timing of weather watches and warnings.  • They were now able to give people advanced warning on Thunderstorms and tornadoes like we never even imagined.

Why is weather so hard to predict accurately? • People rely on forecasts for everything from safely landing an aircraft to running an outdoor event, but it's actually very hard for weather forecasters to be 100 per cent accurate about what the weather is going to do.  • Weather can change rapidly and often, so meteorologists speak about the chance of rain or sunshine in of percentages. They can never be absolutely sure of future weather events.

Using a computer to predict the weathe • It was not until the 20th century that advances in the understanding of atmospheric physics led to the foundation of modern numerical weather prediction. • In 1922, English scientist Lewis Fry Rechordson published "Weather Prediction By Numerical Process“ after finding notes and derivations he had worked upon. • Richardson envisioned a large auditorium of thousands of people performing the calculations and ing them to others.

• However, the sheer number of calculations required was too large to be completed without the use of computers, and the size of the grid and time steps led to unrealistic results in deepening systems. • The first computerized weather forecast was performed by a team led by the mathematician John Von Nuemann. Practical use of numerical weather prediction began in 1955, spurred by the development of programmable electronic computers. • It's not enough to merely get weather data, however clever your apparatus for collecting it - To forecast the weather, you need to be able to use the data to predict what's going to happen next in the atmosphere. • Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative numerical - data about the current state of the atmosphere.

->In mathematical models, raw data is entered into a computer.

-> A series of calculations is performed on the raw data on it to determine how it will change over time.

-> Normally, mathematical modelling is done by computers, which can carry out many calculations per second.

-> In the case of weather models, data such as rain fall, temperature and wind speed are fed into a computer.

-> The computer performs calculations using equations produced from the scientific understanding of atmospheric processes, such as fluid dynamics and thermodynamic equations

New Technology Allows Better Extreme Weather Forecasts

-> Stronger or more frequent weather extremes will likely occur under climate change, such as more intense downpours and stronger hurricane winds.

-> Improved weather prediction, therefore, will be vital to giving communities more time to prepare for dangerous storms, saving lives and minimizing damage to infrastructure.

-> New radar technology will allow forecasters to better “see” extreme weather, as will potential improvements to satellite technology, as well as computer models that run on more powerful supercomputers.

U.C.A.R, INDIA FORCES ON WEATHER TECHNOLOGY AND PREDICTION

-> U.S. atmospheric researchers and their counterparts in India will forces to advance weather forecasting and technology under a new agreement between the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the India Ministry of Earth Sciences. -> The memorandum of understanding (MOU) will collaborations to improve forecasts of major weather events in India, including monsoonal rains that are critical for growing crops that feed hundreds of millions of people -> The MOU covers scientists at NCAR, UCAR, and UCAR's 100-plus member universities. In India, it covers a range of institutions and scientists funded by the India Ministry of Earth Sciences.

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Collaborations are expected to involve research on aircraft and radar technology.

-> One of the first collaborations is expected to focus on a new technology that produces highly detailed measurements of wind in the lower atmosphere.

-> Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), have developed a 449-MHz Modular Radar Wind Profiler. -> With its adaptable design ; the wind profiler may be set up as a network of radars to take measurements as high as the stratosphere. Such observations can improve forecasts of monsoons, thunderstorms, frontal systems, and other weather events.

FUTURE Indian satellite to boost weather forecasting accuracy ->Thiruvananthapuram, Jan 5 (IANS) India is expected to launch the INSAT 3D satellite later this year to boost its weather forecasting accuracy according to Shailesh Naik, Secretary in India's Ministry of Earth Sciences

->"The country will achieve more accuracy level within a few years in short-term and long-term weather forecasts," Naik said at the ongoing 97th Indian Science Congress. 

-> The country has now 77 percent accuracy level in short-term weather forecast, which "will improve further with the launching of INSAT 3D. -> INSAT-3D is a pure meteorological satellite without additional communication payload as in the other INSAT satellites. It features some extraordinary meteorology related payloads. 

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