“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”

INDEX

1. Executive Summary…………………………………………………1 –6 2. Company Profile …….………………………………………….......7 • Profile……………………………………………………. 8 -10 • Products and Services…………………………………...11 - 17 3. Overview of Stock Market…………………………………….......18 24 4. Introduction to Fundamental & Technical Analysis........................25 38 5. EIC Analysis………………...………………………………….....39 • Economic Analysis……………………………………...40 - 43 • Industry Analysis………………………………………..44 - 53 • Company analysis……………………………………….54 - 61 6. Technical Analysis……………….………………………………..62 • Relative Strength Index(RSI)…………………………...63 – 76 • Moving Average………………………………………...77 – 90 • Japanese Candlestick Chart……………………………...91 - 92 7. Findings…………………………………………………………….93 - 95 8. Conclusion………………………………………………………….96 9. Suggestions……………………………………………………......97 10. Bibliography……………………………………………………....98 - 99 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. TITLE OF THE PROJECT: “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector Undertaken at Geojit Financial Services Ltd.” II. ABOUT THE COMPANY: Name & Address of the Company: - “Geojit Financial Services Ltd.” Bhavani Arcade, 2nd floor, No. 127-A, ‘B’ Block, New Cotton Market Hubli – 580029

III. SCOPE OF THE STUDY: This study is most important because both fundamental and technical analysis helps investors in better understanding the markets and gauges the direction in which their investments might be headed and it’s utility helps in estimating the future trends of the stock prices and to make a decent profit out of it.

IV. BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT: In the recent past, the bank interest rates have been increased steadily. But the rate of Inflation has also been increased. There is no big difference between the interest rate and Inflation rate. Because of inflation, value of money has been decreased and cost of living has been increased. This has created panic among lower, middle and upper middle class families who considered keeping their savings in banks as safe as well as remunerative. So, the invertors are searching for proper investment avenues. Here, an attempt is made to predict the future movement of scrips. This study helps the investors to invest in shares. The stock exchange comes in the secondary market. Stock exchange performs activities such as trading in share, securities, bonds, mutual fund & commodities. Stock


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Broking industry is growing at an enormous rate, as more and more people are attracted towards stock exchanges with the hope of making profits. To quote couple of examples, the Automobile industry in India has consistently ed strong performance. The automobile industry had a growth of 15.4 % during April-January 2007, with the average annual growth of 10-15% over the last decade or so. With the incremental investment of $35-40 billion, the growth is expected to double in the next 10 years. Consistent growth and dedication have made the Indian automobile industry the second- largest tractor and two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. It is also the fifthlargest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Indian automobile market is among the largest in Asia. The Indian automobile industry is going through a phase of rapid change and high growth. With new projects coming up on a regular basis, the industry is undergoing technological change. The major players are expanding their plants and focusing on mass customization, mass production, etc. Nearly every automobile company is investing at a higher rate than ever before to achieve a high growth trajectory. The overall investment in the sector has been increasing quite rapidly. It is expected that by the end of 2010 Indian automobile sector will be investing a huge amount as Rs. 30,000 crores. At present the industry is enjoying a growth rate of 14-17% per annum, with domestic sales growth at 12.8%. The growth rate is predicted to double by 2015.

V. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY: 1) To analyze individual company scrips by considering the factors relating to the economy, industry and the respective company. 2)

To predict investor positions (Buy, sell & hold).

3)

To know the future trend of Stock Prices of Tata Motors and Maruti Udyog Ltd. in capital market.

4) To know which securities to be bought and which securities not to be bought. 5) To know which securities to be sold and which securities not to be sold.

VI. METHODOLOGY: Primary data is collected through direct interactions with the Branch Manager, Employees and clients of Geojit Financial Services, Ltd. The Secondary data is collected from the annual reports of the company, relevant text books on the subject matter and company’s official website. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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TOOLS: 1. Moving Average Method. 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI). 3. Candlestick Charting.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY: 1. The study is limited only to automobile sector and 2 companies 2. I have used only 3 Technical tools to predict the movement of Scrip’s. 3. Fundamental Analysis is used to analyze only financial performance of the companies. 4. Only Technical Analysis is used to predict the stock prices of the companies.

FINDINGS OF THE STUDY: • In case of RSI of Maruti Suzuki Scrip, the best time to sell the stock was between 12th July 07 to 31st July 07 and 9th October 07 to 18th October 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 2nd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days. • In case of RSI of Tata Motors, the best time to sell the stock was between 27 th Sep 07 to 4th October 07 and 10th December 07 to 12th December 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 8th August 07 to 23rd August 07 and 23rd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 as well as between 7th March to 18th March 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days. • The 10 days moving average of Maruti Suzuki scrip, provides a message to the investor that it is a right time to buy the Stock and, the trend of the Moving Average line has been decreased, so it is also a right time to buy the stock. • In case of 10 days Moving Average of Tata Motors Ssrip, the actual Stock price is just below its moving average line. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the Stock Price of Tata Motors. • In Japanese Candle Stick Chart of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. we can see that the stock price has been decreased. Simply Share Prices of Maruti Suzuki Ltd is falling down. It indicates that the investors are becoming more bearish than bullish. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” • In case of Japanese Candle Stick Chart of Tata Motors, we can observe lot of volatility in stock price. Both the Bullish and Bearish trends are taking place. The Bullish trend is following by Bearish Trend • Fundamentally, financial performance of these companies in respect of sales and profit is good. • If an investor opts for long term investment then he will earn huge amount of return. Long term Investment is known to be less risky. • This study may not provide any guidelines to Speculators. It is useful to Long Term Investors. • Technical analysts evaluate securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, past prices and volume. • One of the most basic and easy to use technical analysis indicators is the moving average, which shows the average value of a security's price over a period of time. The most commonly used moving averages are 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 50 days, 100 days and 200-days moving average.. • One of the most important areas for any investor to look when researching a company is the financial statement. Financial reports are required by law and are published both quarterly and annually. • Indian Economy is consistently achieving a tremendous growth in these Sectors. • If we consider RSI then almost all the scrips of these companies are lying between 30 and 70. It means an investor should hold the scrips until it reaches 70 to sell and 30 to buy. • The stock prices always take a correction after a major climb. • Moving average is one of the best methods of predicting future movement of Stock Price. If we use 200 Day Moving Average for Analysis then volatility of stock will be less. It gives clear picture of movement of Stock.

CONCLUSION OF THE STUDY: As we all know India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. India is consistently achieving growth in automobile sector. The automotive industry is witnessing tremendous and unprecedented changes these days. On a global scale, the assets of the top ten automotive corporations s for 28% of the assets of the world’s top 50 companies, 29% of their employment and 30% of their total sales. The Indian automobile industry is going through a technological change where each firm is engaged in changing its processes and technologies to sustain the competitive advantage and provide customers with the optimized products and services. The automobile industry had a growth of 15.4 % during April-January 2007, with the average annual growth of 10-15% over the last decade or so. With the incremental investment of $35-40 billion, the growth is expected to double in the next 10 years. Consistent growth and dedication have made the Indian automobile industry the Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” second- largest tractor and two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. It is also the fifthlargest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Indian automobile market is among the largest in Asia. The Ministry of Heavy Industries has released the Automotive Plan 2006-2016, with the motive of making India the most popular manufacturing hub for automobiles and its components in Asia. The plan focuses on the removal of all the bottlenecks that are inhibiting its growth in the domestic as well as international arena. With comparatively higher rate of economic growth rate index against that of great global powers, India has become a hub of domestic and exports business. The automobile sector has been contributing its share to the shining economic performance of India in the recent years. The Indian automobile industry is going through a phase of rapid change and high growth. With new projects coming up on a regular basis, the industry is undergoing technological change. The major players are expanding their plants and focusing on mass customization, mass production, etc Apart from domestic production, the industry is consistently focusing on the automobile exports. The auto component segment is contributing a lot in the export arena. The liberalized policies of the government are now making the companies go for more and more exports. Because of these reasons, the shares of automobile industry are performing well and therefore the share market is attracting people to invest their hard earned money and find fortune. But lack of knowledge about shares and stock market is making them cautious of investing in this market. They need to be educated as well as guided to minimize the risk and to assess the return on their investment.

SUGGESTIONS: 1. Before going to invest, an investor should have clear and adequate knowledge of capital market. 2. It is better to go for Long term Investment rather than the Short term Investment. Because it is less risky and also provides sufficient return. 3. The investors should know the value of money. 4. Practically, stock market activities are very risky. So, investors should be careful while investing. 5. In case of half knowledge about stock market is very dangerous. So, whenever a person wants to invest in stock market he should take necessary tips from the experts or Technical Analysts. 6. Investors should also look into global pressure and market movement in order to look for avenues of investing in different stocks and to take position; some of the sources for understanding global pressure are CNBC TV18, News Paper, Economy watch etc. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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COMPANY PROFILE


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CHAPTER 2 PROFILE OF GEOJIT FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD.

Geojit, a t venture with Kerala State Industrial Development Corporation Ltd. is a pioneer in the retail financial services sector. Over two decades the company has grown to offering complete management solutions. Today the company has over Rs.20 billion in assets under its custody. Geojit’s shares are listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The company is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd., the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Securities Depository Ltd., and a charter member of the Association of Financial Planners, India. More than 1000 professionals are operating through over 250 offices across the country provide services to a growing retail investor base of 200,000. Prominent institutional clients include banks, mutual funds and other institutions such as UTI and insurance companies. Geojit has a large pool of certified professionals who plan, execute and manage customized investment strategies for clientele. Financial literacy programmes are conducted on a regular basis through the branch network to raise investment awareness. Early application of innovative technology in the industry led to many national firsts such as internet trading, electronic securities settlement on the web and an online integrated trading screen for stocks and derivatives.


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YEAR EVENTS 1988

1994

1995 1996

1998 1999

The company, Geojit Securities Limited (GSL), was a partnership firm, with two partners Mr. C.J. George and Mr. Ranjit, under the name and style of M/s Geojit & Company established on 4th November, to act as stock and share brokers with hip on the Cochin Stock Exchange. - The company was incorporated as a Public Limited Company on 24th November and obtained its Certificate of commencement of business on 25th January 1995. - The company is at present engaged in the activities of stock and share broking, underwriting, marketing of initial public offering of companies and mutual funds, corporate advisory services, investments in shares, participating in Bought Out Deals, syndication of inter-corporate deposits, debt, boughtouts etc. - The company has at present branches at Trichur, Kottayam, Muvattupuzha and Coimbatore apart from having representative offices at Mumbai. The company has a subsidiary in the name of Geojit Stock and Shares Limited (GSSL) to carry on the activities as a Dealer of Over The Counter Exchange of India. - The company had made a public issue of equity shares aggregating to Rs.95/lakhs, during the period under report which received an overwhelming and was oversubscribed over 14 times. - The Company held 100% of the paid up Capital of Rs.30,00,000/- M/s Geojit Stock & Shares Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company as at 31st March. The Company, a t venture company with Kerala State Industrial Development Corporation (KSIDC), has announced improved working results for 1997-98. - The equity shares of the company are presently listed at five Stock Exchanges viz., Madras, Ahemedabad, Coimbatore, Delhi and Cochin - The Company based in Kochi, to set up a full-fledged office in the UAE, which will not only enable it to deal in Indian shares and securities, but also Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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2000

-

2001

2002

2003 2004

2005 2006

help it become a licensed stock broking company in that country. Geojit Securities Ltd, a leading retail share broking firm launched Internet securities trading for the first time in India. Geojit Securities is a t venture with Kerala State Industrial Development Corporation (KSIDC) with branches in 40 cities. ABN Amro Bank is set to pick up an equity stake in Geojit Securities Ltd one of the largest stock brokers and depository participant in the country. The company is planning to introduce multi-bank, multi-DP interfaces to facilitate and promote Internet trading in the country.Geojit Securities Ltd, the first company to start online trading services, has signed a MoU with UTI Bank to enable investors to buy\sell demat stocks through the company's website. The Company has signed a deal with Centurion Bank to provide payment gateway for Internet trading. The Company launched its online interface with HDFC Bank for Internet trading. Geojit Securities Ltd, a leading stock broking company, has decided to issue bonus shares at 1:1 ratio, to capitalize part of general reserve.

- The Kochi-based retail broking firm, Geojit Securities Ltd., is setting up an overseas venture tly with a UAE partner to provide broking and depository services to NRIs in the Gulf countries. - Geojit Securities has inked a t venture (JV) with UAE based brokerage house Barjeel Shares & Bonds to set up a 20:80 t venture with an initial capital of $ 1 million, christened Barjeel Geojit Securities. - Bonus Shares were issued by the company in the ratio 1:1. Sheikh Sultan Bin Saud Al Qasimi appointed as Director of Geojit Securities. Mr. T Koshy appointed as Director of Geojit Securities with effect from October 26, 2002 The Company has unveiled a new logo and changed its name to Geojit Financial Services Ltd, offering a growing range of new and innovative financial products and services. - Geojit Securities inks pact with Doha Bank - UTI Bank, Geojit in pact for trading platform in Qatar - Delists shares from Cochin Stock Exchange - Shares of Geojit Securities Ltd delisted from Coimbatore Stock Exchange from May 21 and Madras Stock Exchange effective May 31 - Geojit Financial Services Ltd in association with Doha Bank launches India Wealth Management Services for non-resident Indians living in Qatar Geojit has tied up with global financial investments SAOG, Muscat, in the Sultanate of Oman Geojit Financial Services Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on October 22, 2006, has approved the proposal of Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” the Company to issue and allot to BNP Paribas S.A. (the "Investor"), on a preferential allotment basis, equity shares, warrants convertible into equity shares or any combination thereof, such that the total number of equity shares issued (whether as equity shares or upon the conversion of the warrants) shall not exceed 7,96,31,170 equity shares of Re 1, at price of Rs 26 per equity share, which has been determined in accordance with the applicable laws and guidelines

PRODUCTS AND SERVICES


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PRODUCTS: • • • • • • • •

Equity F & O (Futures and Options) Margin Trading Funding Scheme Loan Against Shares Loan Against Commodity Trading Depository Commodity Portfolio Management Services (PMS)

1) Equity: Equity/ordinary share capital, as a long-term source of finance, represents ownership capital/securities and its owners – equity-holders/ordinary shareholders – share the reward and risk associated with the ownership of corporate enterprises. A shareholder can exercise, sell in the market and renounce/forfeit his pre-emptive rights partially/completely. He does not gain/lose from rights issues. Ordinary share capital is a high-risk-high-reward source of finance for corporate. The shareholders share the risk, return and control associated with ownership of companies.

2) F & O (Futures and Options): The National Stock Exchange and The Stock Exchange, Mumbai have commenced trading in Derivatives Market with Index Futures being the first instrument. Now both the exchanges provide trading in Index Futures and Options and Stock Futures and Options. A derivative is a financial contract, between two or more parties, which is derived from the future value of an underlying asset. At any point of time there will always be available near three months contract periods. For e.g. in the month of Jan 2006 one can enter into Jan, Feb or Mar contracts. The last Thursday of each month is the expiry day for Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” that month’s contract. When one contract expires, a new contract is introduced. For instance, on expiry of Jan 2006 contract, April contract shall get activated. Currently, settlements of all Derivatives trades are in cash. There is Daily as well as Final Settlement. As long as the position is open, the same will be marked to Market at the Daily Settlement Price, the difference will be credited or debited accordingly and the position shall be brought forward to the next day at the daily settlement price. Any position which remains open at the end of the final settlement day (i.e., last Thursday) shall be closed out by the Exchange at the Final Settlement Price which will be the closing spot value of the underlying. There are two types of margins collected on the open position, viz., Initial Margin which is collected upfront and Mark to Market Margin to be paid on T+1 day. As per SEBI Guidelines it is mandatory for clients to give margin, failing which the outstanding positions may be closed out. There are three types of in the Futures and Options Segment: Trading are only eligible to trade, their trades are settled by the Clearing . Trading cum clearing are who are eligible to trade and also settle trades on their own behalf and also settle on behalf of other trading . Professional Clearing are who are only specialized in the clearing and settlement activities. They do not trade on their own behalf or on behalf of other Self Clearing are those who trade and settle only their own trades. Geojit Financial Services Ltd is trading cum clearing member at NSE.

3) Margin Trading Funding Scheme: In Marginal Trading, an Investor buys securities by borrowing a portion of the transaction value and using the securities in the portfolio as collateral. An investor who purchases securities may pay for the securities fully in cash or may borrow a part of the transaction value from the brokerage firm.

4) Loan Against Shares: Geojit Credits Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of Geojit Financial Services Ltd, ed as a Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC) offers Loans against security of shares. The facility is available to all customers of Geojit Financial Services Ltd.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Key Features of the Scheme: 1. All securities defined under Group I of NSE are eligible for Loan against Shares 2. Loan is provided against a minimum of two securities and minimum loan amount is Rs.50000/3. Loan up to 50% of the current market value of approved shares. 4. Upper ceiling on quantum of loan shall be as determined by Geojit Credits P Ltd on a case to case basis 5. Speedy disbursal through RTGS / direct credit to the customer’s bank / cheque 6. Hassle free processing and simple documentation 7. Securities are to be transferred to Geojit Credits Pvt. Ltd 8. Fixed charges of 1.00 % of loan amount is charged upfront and is non refundable. 9. Rate of interest is 14 % p.a. for Loans above Rs 3 lacs and 15% pa for Loans upto Rs 3 lacs. This is subject to change from time to time. Interest is charged on Daily Outstanding Balance in Loan at monthly rests. Interest debited every month should be repaid by chque/DD payable at Kochi with in 7 days of debit. 10. The credit is provided as an overdraft facility for a period of One year at a time, renewable by mutual consent. 11. Loan can also be redeemed by instructing Geojit Credits Pvt. Ltd to sell the securities 12. Loans are re-valued daily 13. Margin calls are made if the value of the securities fall by 10% which can be met with either by redeeming the loan partially or placing additional securities 14. Securities may be liquidated if the margins are not furnished in case of a fall of 20% value of the securities

5) Loan Against Commodity Trading: Geojit Credits Pvt. Ltd offers loans against Pledge of Warehouse Receipts for delivery at Commodity Exchanges. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Key Features of the Scheme 1. Loans against Pledge of Physical and Demat warehouse receipts 2. Loans up to 80% of sale value price contracted for Futures delivery 3. Loans are also considered against Pledge of warehouse receipts without Futures Sell contract on a case-to-case basis at higher margins ranging from 30% to 50% of the value 4. Loans available till sale proceeds are realised on settlement from the Commodity Exchange else upto a maximum of three months 5. Provision to switch between different future contracts (subject to validity of warehouse receipts) 6. Simple documentation 7. Speedy disbursal of loans through RTGS

6) Depository: A depository can be compared to a bank. It holds securities such as shares, debentures, bonds, government securities, units etc. of investors in electronic form. There are two depositories in India, The National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL). An individual who desires to avail the depository services can approach a Depository Participant (DP). Banks, financial institutions, custodians, brokers or any other entity eligible as per SEBI (Depositories and Participants) Regulations, 1996 can apply to the Depository to become a Depository Participant. As on 31st March, 2006 there are 526 Depository Participants in India. Geojit, is a depository participant of NSDL & CDSL. Investors can open demat s with NSDL & CDSL through Geojit. One can approach the nearest branch of Geojit for opening an . Agreement charges (statutory charges) along with Annual Maintenance Charge (AMC) are collected upfront while opening an . It takes two to three days to open a demat . Upon activation of the demat , a Welcome Letter is sent to the customer along with the Delivery Instruction Slip book. DP facilities offered by Geojit •

De-materialization: Consumers can convert their physical shares into electronic form by surrendering the shares for dematerialization at the Geojit branch. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” •

Re-materialization: Re-materialization enables consumers to convert the dematerialized shares into physical form.

•

Repurchase: This facility helps consumers to submit the units of open-ended Mutual Funds in case of re-purchase.

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Pledge: Consumers can pledge securities to avail a loan.

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Transfer: Consumers can transfer securities from one demat to another.

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IPOs: In case consumers have applied for an IPO and receive an allotment then the securities are transferred directly to their demat . The same applies for bonus and rights issues.

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Commodity De-mat : If consumers are a commodity player, they may need to open a commodity de-mat with Geojit.

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Speed-e: If consumers for Speed-e services, then transfer instructions can be placed online over the internet to pre-notified Clearing Pool a/c. This does away with the need to submit a physical delivery instruction slip.

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Internet Services: If consumer have access to Internet then they can with Geojit to view their demat over the Internet. This is very beneficial as consumers can avail of a host of services at no extra cost. They will be able to view their holdings,reports,ledgers and will have free access to Geojit’s research reports at any time.

•

SMS Alert Facility: The alert messages for debits (transfers) and IPO credits would be sent to the holders who have subscribed to this facility. Depository provides this facility and no charge is levied on DPs for providing this service to investors.

7) Commodity: Geojit Commodities, a subsidiary of Geojit Financial Services Limited, is mainly engaged in the business of Commody Futures Trading. Geojit Commodities is a member of: • • • • • •

National Multi – Commodity Exchange of India limited (NMCE) National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) Multi – Commodity Exchange (MCX) India Pepper and Spice Trade Association (IPSTA) Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM) Dubai Gold Commodity Exchange (DGCX).


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Geojit provides information on commodity futures, along with technical and fundamental analysis online at its website and also through the company's large branch network. The company conducts Seminars, distributes free in-house literature and holds interactive sessions that help raise awareness on the futures market. The number of participants is continuously on the rise thus leading to increased volumes and market efficiency. Geojit Commodity offers futures trading through multiple exchanges in varied commodities such as: • • • •

Agri commodities: oilseeds, soya, groundnut, pulses, rice, wheat, sugar, spices, rubber, guar, pepper, cardamom, coffee, etc Precious metals: gold and silver, Base metals: steel, aluminium, nickel, zinc, copper, etc Energy products: crude oil and furnace oil

Geojits clientele in commodities range from investors, co-operative societies, state and national institutions to dealers, traders, manufacturers, financiers, speculators, arbitragers,etc. Geojit does not have proprietary interest in any commodity and therefore is price neutral. Transaction costs are highly affordable attracting a spectrum of investors. hip in multiple exchanges gives clients the added advantage of arbitrage. Geojit has specialized staff that provide the required guidance, help and enable clients to enter at the appropriate price.

8) PMS (Portfolio Management Services): Geojit, a SEBI ed Portfolio Manager (Reg. No.INP000000316) offers discretionary portfolio management services. Geojit has a team of experts who carefully take investment decisions based on the clients' objectives. The Portfolio Management team has a successful track record of more than 10 years in the capital market. The team has access to Geojit's strong Equity Research, and Fundamental & Technical Analysis. Investment Objective: To generate medium to long-term capital growth (2-3 years) by identifying undervalued stocks and those with growth opportunities from a select list of well researched stocks. Strategy: Identifying growth stocks from a select list through extensive research. Minimum Investment: Rs.10 lakhs for resident Indians and Rs.25 lakhs for Non-Resident Indians.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Reports: Portfolio and NAV are communicated bi-weekly via e-mail. Risk factors: As the stocks are normally held for medium to long term, the net asset value will be affected by market volatility. PMS fee: Option 1: 3% p.a. (charged @0.75% at the end of every quarter on the average of beginning and ending NAV). Option 2: 1% p.a. (charged @0.25% at the end of every quarter on the average of beginning and ending NAV) and performance fee. Performance fee: 20% on gain in NAV over and above 12% p.a. based on the high watermark concept charged at the end of the year or on withdrawal.

OVERVIEW OF EQUITY MARKET


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CHAPTER 3 OVERVIEW OF EQUITY MARKET IN INDIA BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange)

SENSEX - THE BAROMETER OF INDIAN CAPITAL MARKETS Introduction: For the premier Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India, 128 years of experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed since 1875 when 318 persons became of what today is called "The Stock Exchange, Mumbai" by paying a princely amount of Re1.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Since then, the country's capital markets have ed through both good and bad periods. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. Till the decade of eighties, there was no scale to measure the ups and downs in the Indian stock market. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) in 1986 came out with a stock index that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market. SENSEX is not only scientifically designed but also based on globally accepted construction and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is a basket of 30 constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative companies. The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100. The index is widely reported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media. The Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization" methodology but was shifted to the free-float methodology with effect from September 1, 2003. The "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology of index construction is regarded as an industry best practice globally. All major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the Free-float methodology. Due to its wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors, SENSEX is regarded to be the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it provides the time series data over a fairly long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small wonder, the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most prominent brands in the country. The growth of equity markets in India has been phenomenal in the decade gone by. Right from early nineties the stock market witnessed heightened activity in of various bull and bear runs. The SENSEX captured all these events in the most judicial manner. One can identify the booms and busts of the Indian stock market through SENSEX.

SENSEX MILESTONES: Robust portfolio investments and heavy fund buying lifted the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share Sensex past the magical 12,000 mark. The Sensex finally closed at an all-time high of 12,040 points. This is the fastest 1,000-point gain by the Sensex. It only took 15 trading sessions for the index to cross from 11,000 to 12,000. Interestingly, the Sensex has taken only 10 months to gain 5,000 points! The unprecedented Bull Run started on May 6, 2003 when the Sensex was at 3,001.21 level. In took just 67 trading sessions to cross the 4,000-mark and touch 4,026.27 points on August 19, 2003.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The rally continued and the index gained another 1,000 points in 54 trading sessions to post 5,068.66 points on November 3, 2003. Thereafter, it pierced through the 6,000 mark on January 2, 2004 in another 43 trading sessions. The market then seemed to pause for breath as it took a whopping 370 trading sessions to cross the 7,000 mark, at 7001.55 on June 20, 2005. From 7,000-mark, the sentiment turned distinctly firm following good liquidity that played a significant role to determine the market direction and Sensex crossed 8,000-mark in just 55 trading sessions at 8, 060.26 on September 8, 2005 and 54 trading days to cross 9,000-mark at 9, 005.63 on November 28, 2005. From 9K to 10K, it took just 48 trading sessions. The index crossed 10,000-mark on February 6, 2006 at 10,002.83. From 10K to 11K, it only took 29 trading sessions. The Bombay Stock Exchange, the oldest stock exchange in Asia, was established in 1875 as the Native Share and Stock Brokers Association at Dalal Street in Mumbai. A lot has changed since then when 318 persons became upon paying Re 1. In 1956, the BSE obtained permanent recognition from the Government of India -the first stock exchange to do so -- under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. The Sensex, first compiled in 1986, is a 'Market Capitalization-Weighted' Index of 30 component stocks representing a sample of large and financially sound companies. The BSE- Sensex is the benchmark index of the Indian capital markets. The BSE Sensex comprises these 30 stocks: ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy's, Gujarat Ambuja, Grasim, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, Hindalco, HLL, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Maruti, NTPC, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance, Reliance Energy, Satyam, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Power, TCS, Tata Motors and Wipro. Here's a timeline on the rise and rise of the Sensex through Indian stock market history. • 1000, July 25, 1990- On July 25, 1990, the Sensex touched the magical four-digit figure for the first time and closed at 1,001 in the wake of a good monsoon and excellent corporate results. • 2000, January 15, 1992 -On January 15, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 2,000mark and closed at 2,020 followed by the liberal economic policy initiatives undertaken by the then finance minister and current Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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• 3000, February 29, 1992 -On February 29, 1992, the Sensex surged past the 3000 mark in the wake of the market-friendly Budget announced by the then Finance Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh. • 4000, March 30, 1992 -On March 30, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 4,000-mark and closed at 4,091 on the expectations of a liberal export-import policy. It was then that the Harshad Mehta scam hit the markets and Sensex witnessed unabated selling. • 5000, October 8, 1999 -On October 8, 1999, the Sensex crossed the 5,000-mark as the BJP-led coalition won the majority in the 13th Lok Sabha election. • 6000, February 11, 2000 -On February 11, 2000, the infotech boom helped the Sensex to cross the 6,000-mark and hit and all time high of 6,006. • 7000, June 20, 2005 -On June 20, 2005, the news of the settlement between the Ambani brothers boosted investor sentiments and the scrips of RIL, Reliance Energy, Reliance Capital and IPCL made huge gains. This helped the Sensex crossed 7,000 points for the first time. • 8000, September 8, 2005 -On September 8, 2005, the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share index -- the Sensex -- crossed the 8000 level following brisk buying by foreign and domestic funds in early trading. • 9000, November 28, 2005 -The Sensex on November 28, 2005 crossed the magical figure of 9000 to touch 9000.32 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange on the back of frantic buying spree by foreign institutional investors and well ed by local operators as well as retail investors. • 10,000, February 7, 2006 - The Sensex on February 6, 2006 touched 10,003 points during mid-session. The Sensex finally closed above the 10K-mark on February 7, 2006. • 11,000, March 27, 2006 - The Sensex on March 21, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 11,000 and touched a life-time peak of 11,001 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange for the first time. However, it was on March 27, 2006 that the Sensex first closed at over 11,000 points. • 12,000, April 20, 2006 - The Sensex on April 20, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 12,000 and closed at a lifetime peak of 12,040 points for the first time. • 13,000, October 30, 2006- The Sensex had touched the 13,000 level on October 30.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” • 14,000, December 5, 2006- The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-share benchmark stock index, the Sensex, crossed the 14,000 mark, Tuesday, December 5, opening with a bang at 14,028, up 154 points from its previous close, thanks to a freak trade at the Reliance counter which saw the stock open at Rs. 1,350, up Rs. 90 from the previous day's close. With the index completing the last 1,000 point journey in just 26 sessions. • 15,000, July 6, 2007- The Sensex on July 6, 2007 crossed another milestone and reached a magic figure of 15,000. it took almost 7 month and 1 day to touch such a historic milestone. 16,000, September 19, 2007- The Sensex on September 19, 2007 crossed the 16,000 mark and reached a historic peak of 16322 while closing. The bull hits because of the rate cut of 50 bps in the discount rate by the Fed chief Ben Bernanke in US. •

17,000, September 26, 2007- The Sensex on September 26, 2007 crossed the 17,000 mark for the first time, creating a record for the second fastest 1000 point gain in just 5 trading sessions. It failed however to sustain the momentum and closed below 17000. The Sensex closed above 17000 for the first time on the following day. Reliance group has been the main contributor in this bull run, contributing 256 points. This also helped Mukesh Ambani's net worth to grow to over $50 billion or Rs.2 trillion. It was also during this record bull run that the Sensex for the first time zoomed ahead of the Nikkei of Japan. •

18,000, October 9, 2007- The Sensex crossed the 18k mark for the first time on October 9, 2007. The journey from 17k to 18k took just 8 trading sessions which is the third fastest 1000 point rise in the history of the sensex. The sensex closed at 18,280 at the end of day. This 788 point gain on 9th October was the second biggest single day absolute gains. •

19,000, October 15, 2007- The Sensex crossed the 19k mark for the first time on October 15th 2007. It took just 4 days to reach from 18k to 19k. This is the fastest 1000 points rally ever and also the 640 point rally was the second highest single day rally in absolute . This made it a record 3000 point rally in 17 trading sessions overall. •

20,000, October 29, 2007- The Sensex crossed the 20k mark for the first time with a massive 734.5 point gain but closed below the 20k mark. It took 11 days to reach from 19k to 20k. The journey of the last 10,000 points was covered in just 869 sessions as against 7,297 sessions taken to touch the 10,000 mark from 1,000 levels. In 2007 alone, there were six 1,000-point rallies for the Sensex. •

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21,000, January 8, 2008 NSE (NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE)


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The Organization: The National Stock Exchange of India Limited has genesis in the report of the High Powered Study Group on Establishment of New Stock Exchanges, which recommended promotion of a National Stock Exchange by financial institutions (FIs) to provide access to investors from all across the country on an equal footing. Based on the recommendations, NSE was promoted by leading Financial Institutions at the behest of the Government of India and was incorporated in November 1992 as a tax-paying company unlike other stock exchanges in the country. On its recognition as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 in April 1993, NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment commenced operations in November 1994 and operations in Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000. NIFTY: The Nifty is relatively a new comer in the Indian market. S&P CNX Nifty is a 50 stock index ing for 23 sectors of the economy. It is used for purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios; index based derivatives and index funds. The base period selected for Nifty is the close of prices on November 3, 1995, which marked the completion of one-year of operations of NSE's capital market segment. The base value of index was set at 1000. S&P CNX Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products Ltd. (IISL), which is a t venture between NSE and CRISIL. IISL is a specialized company focused upon the index as a core product. IISL have a consulting and licensing agreement with Standard & Poor's (S&P), who are world leaders in index services.


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FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” CHAPTER 4 FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: Fundamental analysis is the method of evaluating securities by attempting to measure the intrinsic value of a particular stock. It is the study of everything from the overall economy and industry conditions, to the financial condition and management of specific companies (i.e., using real data to evaluate a stock’s value). The method utilizes items such as revenues, earnings, return on equity and profit margins to determine a company’s underlying value and potential for future growth. One of the major assumptions under fundamental analysis is that, even though things get mis priced in the market from time to time, the price of an asset will eventually gravitate toward its true value. This seems to be a reasonable bet considering the long upward march of quality stocks in general despite regular setbacks and periods of irrational exuberance. The key strategy for the fundamentalist is to buy when prices are at or below this intrinsic value and sell when they got overpriced. Fundamental analysis for identifying industries with growth potential : After the objects of investment portfolio in of risk and return have been specified, one of the first decisions that an investment manager faces is to identify the industries, which have a high growth potential. Two approaches are suggested in this regard: a) Statistical analysis of past performance: A statistical analysis of the immediate past performance of the share price indices of the various industries and changes therein related to the general price index of shares of all industries should be made. The Reserve Bank of India index numbers of security prices published every month in its bulletin may be taken to represent the behavior of share prices of the various industries in the last few years. The relative changes in the price index of each industry as compared with the changes in the average price index of the shares of all industries would show those industries which are having a higher growth potential in the past few years. It may be noted that an industry may not remain a growth industry for all the time. The analysis of share price indices over a number of years will enable the investment manager to identify the industries, which are rated high by the investors at the time of analysis. By this, one can perceive industries having a higher growth in their share prices indices and examine whether the growth potential is still there or not. In other words, the investment manager shall now have to make an assessment of the various characteristics of the industries to finalize a list of industries in which he will try to spread the investments. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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b) Assessing the intrinsic value of an industry/company: After an investment manager has identified statistically the industries in the share of which the investors show interest, he would assess the various factors, which influence the value of a particular share. These factors generally relate to the strengths and weaknesses of the company under consideration, characteristics of the industry within which the company falls and the national and international economic scene. It is the job of the investment manager to examine and weigh the various factors and judge the quality of the share or the security under consideration. This approach is known as the intrinsic value approach.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Technical analysis is the examination of past price movements to forecast future price movements. Technical analysts are sometimes referred to as chartists because they rely almost exclusively on charts for their analysis.

Moving Average: A Moving Average is an indicator that shows the average value of a security's price over a period of time. When calculating a moving average, a mathematical analysis of the security's average value over a predetermined time period is made. As the securities price changes, its average price moves up or down. There are several popular ways to calculate a moving average. Meta Stock for Java calculates a "simple" moving average--meaning that equal weight is given to each price over the calculation period. Interpretation: The most popular method of interpreting a moving average is to compare the relationship between a moving average of the security's price with the security's price itself. A buy signal is generated when the security's price rises above its moving average and a sell signal is generated when the security's price falls below its moving average. This type of moving average trading system is not intended to get you in at the exact bottom nor out at the exact top. Rather, it is designed to keep you in line with the security's price trend by buying shortly after the security's price bottoms and selling shortly after it tops. The critical element in a moving average is the number of time periods used in calculating the average. When using hindsight, you can always find a moving average that would have been profitable. The key is to find a moving average that will be consistently Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” profitable. The most popular moving average is the 39-week (or 200-day) moving average. This moving average has an excellent track record in timing the major (longterm) market cycles. Advantages: The advantage of moving average system of this type (i.e., buying and selling when prices break through their moving average) is that you will always be on the "right" side of the market: prices cannot rise very much without the price rising above its average price. The disadvantage is that you will always buy and sell some late. If the trend does not last for a significant period of time, typically twice the length of the moving average, you will lose your money.

and Resistance: and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control. What Is ? is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below . does not always hold and a break below signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below or below the previous low. Once is broken, another level will have to be established at a lower level. Where Is Established? levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near . Technical analysis is not an exact science and it is sometimes difficult to set exact levels. In addition, price movements can be volatile and dip below briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” level broken if the price closes 1/8 below the established level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish zones. What Is Resistance? Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance. Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level. Where Is Resistance Established? Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes 1/8 above the established resistance level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones. So, Here, Identification of key and resistance levels is an essential ingredient to successful technical analysis. Even though it is sometimes difficult to establish exact and resistance levels, being aware of their existence and location can greatly enhance analysis and forecasting abilities. If a security is approaching an important level, it can serve as an alert to be extra vigilant in looking for signs of increased buying pressure and a potential reversal. If a security is approaching a resistance level, it can act as an alert to look for signs of increased selling pressure and potential reversal. If a or resistance level is broken, it signals that the relationship between supply and demand has changed. A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper hand and a break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Price Oscillator: The Price Oscillator displays the difference between two moving averages of a security's price. The difference between the moving averages can be expressed in either points or percentages. The Price Oscillator is almost identical to the MACD, except that the Price Oscillator can use any two -specified moving averages. (The MACD always uses 12 and 26-day moving averages, and always expresses the difference in points.) Interpretation: Moving average analysis typically generates buy signals when a short-term moving average (or the security's price) rises above a longer-term moving average. Conversely, sell signals are generated when a shorter-term moving average (or the security's price) falls below a longer-term moving average. The Price Oscillator illustrates the cyclical and often profitable signals generated by these one or two moving average systems.

Price Rate-Of-Change: The Price Rate-of-Change ("ROC") indicator displays the difference between the current price and the price x-time periods ago. The difference can be displayed in either points or as a percentage. The Momentum indicator displays the same information, but expresses it as a ratio. Interpretation: It is a well-recognized phenomenon that security prices surge ahead and retract in a cyclical wave-like motion. This cyclical action is the result of the changing expectations as bulls and bears struggle to control prices. The ROC displays the wave-like motion in an oscillator format by measuring the amount that prices have changed over a given time period. As prices increase, the ROC rises; as prices fall, the ROC falls. The greater the change in prices, the greater the change in the ROC. The time period used to calculate the ROC may range from 1-day (which results in a volatile chart showing the daily price change) to 200-days (or longer). The most popular time periods are the 12- and 25-day ROC for short to intermediate-term trading. These time periods were popularized by Gerald Appel and Fred Hitschler in their book, Stock Market Trading Systems.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The 12-day ROC is an excellent short- to intermediate-term overbought/oversold indicator. The higher the ROC, the more overbought the security; the lower the ROC, the more likely a rally. However, as with all overbought/oversold indicators, it is prudent to wait for the market to begin to correct (i.e., turn up or down) before placing your trade. A market that appears overbought may remain overbought for some time. In fact, extremely overbought/oversold readings usually imply a continuation of the current trend. The 12-day ROC tends to be very cyclical, oscillating back and forth in a fairly regular cycle. Often, price changes can be anticipated by studying the previous cycles of the ROC and relating the previous cycles to the current market

Relative Strength Index (RSI): The Relative Strength Index ("RSI") is a popular oscillator. It was first introduced by Welles Wilder in an article in Commodities (now known as Futures) Magazine in June, 1978. The name "Relative Strength Index" is slightly misleading as the Relative Strength Index does not compare the relative strength of two securities, but rather the internal strength of a single security. A more appropriate name might be "Internal Strength Index." Interpretation: When Wilder introduced the Relative Strength Index, he recommended using a 14day Relative Strength Index. Since then, the 9-day and 25-day Relative Strength Indexs have also gained popularity. The fewer days used to calculate the Relative Strength Index, the more volatile the indicator. The Relative Strength Index is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100. A popular method of analyzing the Relative Strength Index is to look for a divergence in which the security is making a new high, but the Relative Strength Index is failing to sur its previous high. This divergence is an indication of an impending reversal. When the Relative Strength Index then turns down and falls below its most recent trough, it is said to have completed a "failure swing." The failure swing is considered a confirmation of the impending reversal. In Mr. Wilder's book, he discusses five uses of the Relative Strength Index: 1. Tops and Bottoms. The Relative Strength Index usually tops above 70 and bottoms below 30. It usually forms these tops and bottoms before the underlying price chart.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 2. Chart Formations. The Relative Strength Index often forms chart patterns such as head and shoulders or triangles that may or may not be visible on the price chart. 3. Failure Swings (also known as or resistance penetrations or breakouts). This is where the Relative Strength Index sures a previous high (peak) or falls below a recent low (trough). 4. and Resistance. The Relative Strength Index shows, sometimes more clearly than price themselves, levels of and resistance. 5. Divergences. As discussed above, divergences occur when the price makes a new high (or low) that is not confirmed by a new high (or low) in the Relative Strength Index. Prices usually correct and move in the direction of the Relative Strength Index.

Trendlines: In the preceding section, we saw how and resistance levels can be penetrated by a change in investor expectations (which results in shifts of the supply/demand lines). This type of a change is often abrupt and "news based." In this section, we'll review "trends." A trend represents a consistent change in prices (i.e., a change in investor expectations). Trends differ from /resistance levels in that trends represent change, whereas /resistance levels represent barriers to change. As shown in the following chart, a rising trend is defined by successively higher low-prices. A rising trend can be thought of as a rising level--the bulls are in control and are pushing prices higher.

As shown in the next chart, a falling trend is defined by successively lower highprices. A falling trend can be thought of as a falling resistance level--the bears are in control and are pushing prices lower.


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The Bar Chart: The Bar chart is one of the most popular types of charts used in technical analysis. As illustrated on the left, the top of the vertical line indicates the highest price at which a security traded during the day, and the bottom represents the lowest price. The closing price is displayed on the right side of the bar and the opening price is shown on the left side of the bar. A single bar like the one to the left represents one day of trading.

The chart below is an example of a bar chart for AT&T (T):


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The advantage of using a bar chart over a straight-line graph is that it shows the high, low, open and close for each particular day.

Candle stick Charting: Candlestick charts have been around for hundreds of years. They are often referred to as "Japanese candles" because the Japanese would use them to analyze the price of rice contracts. Similar to a bar chart, candlestick charts also display the open, close, daily high and daily low. The difference is the use of color to show if the stock went up or down over the day.

The chart below is an example of a candlestick chart for AT&T (T). Green bars indicate the stock price rose, red indicates a decline:

Investors seem to have a "love/hate" relationship with candlestick charts. People either love them and use them frequently or they are completely turned off by them. There are several patterns to look for with candlestick charts - here are a few of the popular ones and what they mean. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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This is a bullish pattern - the stock opened at (or near) its low and closed near its high

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The opposite of the pattern above, this is a bearish pattern. It indicates that the stock opened at (or near) its high and dropped substantially to close near its low.

Known as "the hammer", this is a bullish pattern only if it occurs after the stock price has dropped for several days. A small body along with a large range identifies a hammer. This pattern indicates that a reversal in the downtrend is in the works.

Known as a "star”. For the most part, stars typically indicate a reversal and or indecision. There is a possibility that after seeing a star there will be a reversal or change in the current trend.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Point and Figure Chart: The point & figure (P&F) chart is somewhat rare. In fact, most charting services do not even offer it. This chart plots day-to-day increases and declines in price: increases are represented by a rising stack of "X"s, while decreases are represented by a declining stack of "O"s. This type of chart was traditionally used for intraday charting (a stock chart for just one day), mainly because it can be long and tedious to create a P&F chart manually over a longer period of time. The idea behind P&F charts is that they help you to filter out less significant price movements and to focus on the most important trends. Below is an example of a P&F chart for AT&T (T):

POPULAR CHARTING PATTERNS: Technical analysts often use proven successful price patterns from great stocks as tools to find new great stocks. Let's look at a few examples •

Cup and Handle - This is a pattern on a bar chart that can be as short as seven weeks and as long as 65 weeks. The cup is in the shape of a "U". The handle has a Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” slight downward drift. The right-hand side of the pattern has low trading volume. As the stock comes up to test the old highs, the stock will incur selling pressure by the people who bought at or near the old high. This selling pressure will make the stock price trade sideways with a tendency towards a downtrend for anywhere from four days to four weeks, then it will take off. This pattern looks like a pot with a handle. It is one of the easier patterns to detect; and investors have made a lot of money using it.

•

Head and Shoulders - This is a chart formation resembling an "M" in which a stock's price: -

Rises to a peak and then declines, then - Rises above the former peak and again declines, and then - Rises again but not to the second peak and again declines. The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head. This pattern is considered a very bearish indicator.


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Double Bottom - This pattern resembles a "W" and occurs when a stock price drops to a similar price level twice within a few weeks or months. You should buy when the price es the highest point in the handle. In a perfect double bottom, the second decline should normally go slightly lower than the first decline to create a shakeout of jittery investors. The middle point of the "W" should not go into new high ground. This is a very Bullish indicator.

The belief is that, after two drops in the stock price, the jittery investors will be out and the long-term investors will still be holding on.


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EIC ANALYSIS


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” CHAPTER: 5 INDIAN ECONOMY: AN OVERVIEW The economy has moved decisively to a higher growth phase. Till a few years ago, there was still a debate among informed observers about whether the economy had moved above the 5 to 6 per cent average growth seen since the 1980s. There is now no doubt that the economy has moved to a higher growth plane, with growth in GDP at market prices exceeding 8 per cent in every year since 2003-04. The projected economic growth of 8.7 per cent for 2007-08 is fully in line with this trend. There was acceleration in domestic investment and saving rates to drive growth and provide the resources for meeting the 9 per cent (average) growth target of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Macroeconomic fundamentals continue to inspire confidence and the investment limate is full of optimism. Buoyant growth of government revenues made it possible to maintain fiscal consolidation as mandated under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBMA). The decisive change in growth trend also means that the economy was, perhaps, not fully prepared for the different set of challenges that accompany fast growth. Inflation flared up in the last half of 2006-07 and was successfully contained during the current year, despite a global hardening of commodity prices and an upsurge in capital inflows. An appreciation of the rupee, a slowdown in the consumer goods segment of industry and infrastructure (both physical and social) constraints, remained of concern. Raising growth to double digit will therefore require additional reforms. Per capita income and consumption 1.2 Growth is of interest not for its own sake but for the improvement in public welfare that it brings about. Economic growth, and in particular the growth in per capita income, is a broad quantitative indicator of the progress made in improving public welfare. Per capita consumption is another quantitative indicator that is useful for judging welfare improvement. It is therefore appropriate to start by looking at the changes in real (i.e. at constant prices) per capita income and consumption 1.3. The pace of economic improvement has moved up considerably during the last five years (including 2007-08). The rate of growth of per capita income as measured by per capita GDP at market prices (constant 1999-2000 prices) grew by an annual average rate of 3.1 per cent during the 12- year period, 1980-81 to 1991-92. It accelerated marginally to 3.7 per cent per annum during the next 11 years, 1992-93 to 2002-03. Since then there has been a sharp acceleration in the growth of per capita income, almost doubling to an average of 7.2 per cent per annum (2003-04 to 2007-08). This means that average income would now double in a decade, well within one generation, instead of after a generation (two decades). The growth rate of per capita income in 2007-08 is projected to be 7.2 per cent, the same as the average of the five years to the current year. 1.4 Per capita private final consumption expenditure has increased in line with per capita income. The growth of per capita consumption accelerated from an average of 2.2 per cent per year during the 12 years from 1980-81 to 1991-92 to 2.6 per cent per year during the next 11 years following Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” the reforms of the 1990s. The growth rate has almost doubled to 5.1 per cent per year during the subsequent five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with the current year’s growth expected to be 5.3 per cent, marginally higher than the five year average. The average growth of consumption is slower than the average growth of income, primarily because of rising saving rates, though rising tax collection rates can also widen the gap 1. The Gross Domestic Product increased by 7.5 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 9.6 percent in first three years, of the UPA Government resulting in an unprecedented average growth rate of 8.8 per cent. The drivers of growth continue to be 'services' and 'manufacturing' which are estimated to grow at 10.7 per cent and 9.4 per cent respectively. 2. Growth rate in agriculture for 2007-08 is estimated at 2.6 per cent. 3. Food grain production in 2007-08, estimated at 219.32 million tonnes-an all time record. Rice production at 94.08 million tonnes, maize at 16.78 million tonnes, soya bean at 9.45 million tonnes, cotton at 23.38 million bales each, an all time record. 4. Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana launched with an outlay of Rs. 25,000 crore, National Food Security Mission with an outlay of Rs. 4,882 crore under National Policy for Farmers in the Eleventh Five Year Plan. CAPITAL AND COMMODITY MARKETS: The capital and commodity markets remained buoyant during 2007. Relatively stable macroeconomic conditions as reflected in moderate rate of inflation, growthconducive interest rate situation, improved fiscal conditions and larger investor participation augured well for capital and commodity markets as measured in of volume and value of transactions. Capital Markets: The Indian capital market attained further depth and width in business transacted during 2007. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex, which had been witnessing an upswing since the latter part of 2003, scaled a high of 20,000 mark at the close of calendar year 2007. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Index rose in tandem to close above the 6,100 mark at the end of 2007. Both the indices more than tripled between 2003 and 2007, giving handsome yearly returns. Alongside the growth of business in the Indian capital market, the regulatory and oversight norms have improved over the years, ensuring a sound and stable market. 1. Measures to expand the market for corporate bonds: Exchange-traded currency and interest rate futures to be launched and transparent credit derivatives market to be developed with appropriate safeguards; Tradability of domestic convertible bonds to be enhanced through the mechanism of enabling investors to Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” separate the embedded equity option from the convertible bond, and trade it separately; Development of a market-based system for classifying financial instruments based on their complexity and implicit risks to be encouraged. 2. Permanent Number (PAN): Requirement of PAN extended to all transactions in the financial market subject to suitable threshold exemption limits. 3. National market for securities: Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers to be requested to work with the Central Government to create pan Indian market for securities that will expand the market base and enhance the revenues of the State Governments. Primary Market: The primary capital market grew in 2006 and 2007 after the set back of 2005. The amounts raised and the number of new issues which entered the market increased in 2007. The total amount of capital raised through different market instruments during 2007 was 31.5 per cent higher than during 2006, which itself had seen a rebound of 30.6 percent over the lows of 2005. Secondary Market: In the secondary market segment, the market activity expanded further during 2007-08 with BSE and NSE indices scaling new peaks of 21,000 and 6,300, respectively, in January 2008. Although the indices showed some intermittent fluctuations, reflecting change in the market sentiments, the indices maintained their northbound trend during the year. This could be attributed to the larger inflows from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and wider participation of domestic investors, particularly the institutional investors. During 2007, on a point-to-point basis, Sensex and Nifty Indices rose by 47.1 and 54.8 per cent, respectively. The buoyant conditions in the Indian bourses were aided by, among other things, India posting a relatively higher GDP growth amongst the emerging economies, continued uptrend in the profitability of Indian corporates, persistence of difference in domestic and international levels of interest rates, impressive returns on equities and a strong Indian rupee on the back of larger capital inflows. Budget Estimates: 1. Plan Expenditure estimated at Rs.243,386 crore. 2. Non-Plan Expenditure estimated at Rs.507,499 crore. 3. Revenue deficit for 2007-08 to be 1.4 per cent (against a BE of 1.5 per cent) and the fiscal deficit to be 3.1 per cent (against a BE of 3.3 per cent); Revenue receipts of Central Government for 2008-09 projected at Rs.602, 935 crore and revenue expenditure at Rs.658,119 crore; Revenue deficit for 2008-09 estimated at Rs.55,184 crore, which amounts to 1.0 per cent of GDP; Fiscal deficit for 2008-09 estimated at Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Rs.133,287 crore which is 2.5 per cent of GDP; elimination of Revenue Deficit may need one more year; because of the conscious shift in expenditure in favour of health, education and the social sector. 4. Thirteenth Finance Commission to be requested to revisit the roap for fiscal adjustment and suggest a suitably revised roap, after the obligations on of the Sixth Central Pay Commission becomes clear. Stock markets: Stock markets are an important instrument of financial intermediation. They saw increased activity in 2007-08. Primary market issue of debt and equity increased along with private placement. The secondary market too showed a rising trend, notwithstanding intermittent ups and downs in the stock prices responding mainly to global developments. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex rose from 13,072 at end-March 2007 to 18,048 as on February 18, 2008, while the National Stock Exchange (NSE) index Nifty 50 rose from 3,822 to 5,277 during the same period. Both the indices gave a return of around 38 per cent during this period. The higher net mobilization of resources by mutual funds showed that investors were realizing the importance of using intermediaries in risky markets. All the other indicators of capital market such as market capitalization, turnover and price-earning ratio remained strong. The commodity market also showed signs of expansion in of turnover and number of transactions during the year. Industry and infrastructure: The industrial sector witnessed a slowdown in the first nine months of the current financial year. The growth of 9 per cent during April-December 2007, when viewed against the back drop of the robust growth witnessed in the preceding four years, suggests that there is a certain degree of moderation in the momentum of the industrial sector. The consumer durable goods sector in particular has shown a distinct slowdown. This is linked to the hardening of interest rates and therefore to the conditions prevailing in the domestic credit sector. In contrast, the capital goods industry has sustained strong growth performance during 2007-08 (April-December). At the product group level, the moderation in growth has been selective. Industries like chemicals, food products, leather, jute textiles, wood products and miscellaneous manufacturing products witnessed acceleration in growth, while basic metals, machinery and equipments, rubber, plastic and petroleum products and beverages and tobacco recorded lower but strong growth during April-December 2007. Other industries including textiles (except jute textiles), automotives, paper, non-metallic mineral products and metal products slowed down visibly during the period. The slowdown in the case of less importintensive sectors like textiles is coincident with the decline in the growth of exports arising from the sharp appreciation in the rupee vis-a-vis the dollar. Within automobiles, while enger cars, scooters and mopeds witnessed buoyant growth, the production of motor


45

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” cycles and three wheelers slackened. In a nutshell, the industrial sector has produced mixed results in the current fiscal.

CHAPTER 6 OVERVIEW OF AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY IN INDIA The global automotive industry is a highly diversified sector that comprises of manufacturers, suppliers, dealers, retailers, original equipment manufacturers, aftermarket parts manufacturers, automotive engineers, motor mechanics, auto electricians, spray painters or body repairers, fuel producers, environmental and transport safety groups, and trade unions. United States, Japan, China, and South Korea are the top five automobile manufacturing nations throughout the world. The United States of America is the worldâ€™s largest producer and consumer of motor vehicles and automobiles ing for 6.6 million direct and spin-off jobs and represents nearly 10% of the S10 trillion US economy. The automobile is one of the important industries in the world, which provides employment to 25 million people in the world.

The Indian automobile industry is going through a technological change where each firm is engaged in changing its processes and technologies to sustain the competitive advantage and provide customers with the optimized products and services. Starting from the two wheelers, trucks, and tractors to the multi utility vehicles, commercial vehicles and the luxury vehicles, the Indian automobile industry has achieved tremendous amount of success in the recent years. As per Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) the market share of each segment of the industry is as follows:


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The market shares of the segments of the automobile industry

The automobile industry had a growth of 15.4 % during April-January 2007, with the average annual growth of 10-15% over the last decade or so. With the incremental investment of $35-40 billion, the growth is expected to double in the next 10 years. Consistent growth and dedication have made the Indian automobile industry the second- largest tractor and two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. It is also the fifthlargest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Indian automobile market is among the largest in Asia. The key players like Hindustan Motors, Maruti Udyog, Fiat India Private Ltd, Tata Motors, Bajaj Motors, Hero Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra have been dominating the vehicle industry. A few of the foreign players like Toyota Kirloskar Motor Ltd., Skoda India Private Ltd., Honda Siel Cars India Ltd. have also entered the market and have catered to the customers’ needs to a large extent. Not only the Indian companies but also the international car manufacturing companies are focusing on compact cars to be delivered in the Indian market at a much smaller price. Moreover, the automobile companies are coming up with financial schemes such as easy EMI repayment systems to boost sales. There have been exhibitions like Auto-expo at Pragati Maidan, New Delhi to share the technological advancements. Besides, there are many new projects coming up in the automobile industry leading to the growth of the sector. The Government of India has liberalized the foreign exchange and equity regulations and has also reduced the tariff on imports, contributing significantly to the growth of the sector. Having firmly established its presence in the domestic markets, the Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

47

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Indian automobile sector is now penetrating the international arena. Vehicle exports from India are at their highest levels. The leaders of the Indian automobile sector, such as Tata Motors, Maruti and Mahindra and Mahindra are leading the exports to Europe, Middle East and African and Asian markets. The Ministry of Heavy Industries has released the Automotive Plan 2006-2016, with the motive of making India the most popular manufacturing hub for automobiles and its components in Asia. The plan focuses on the removal of all the bottlenecks that are inhibiting its growth in the domestic as well as international arena. Growth in the Sector: At present the industry is enjoying a growth rate of 14-17% per annum, with domestic sales growth at 12.8%. The growth rate is predicted to double by 2015. As it is seen, the total sales of enger vehicles - cars, utility vehicles and multiutility vehicles - in the year 2005 reached the mark of 1.06 million. The current growth rate indicates that by 2012 India will overtake and Japan in sales volumes. Financing schemes have become an important factor in the growth of automobile sales. More and more financial schemes are coming up with easy installment plans to lure the customers. Apart from domestic production, the industry is consistently focusing on the automobile exports. The auto component segment is contributing a lot in the export arena. The liberalized policies of the government are now making the companies go for more and more exports. The automobile exports are increasing year by year. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufactures (SIAM) automobile exports in the last five years are as follows:


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SWOT ANALYSIS OF INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY: STRENGTHS: • • • •

Globally cost competitive Adheres to strict quality controls Has access to latest technology Provides to critical infrastructure and metal industries

WEAKNESSES: • • •

Industry has low level of research and development capability Industry is exposed to cyclical downturns in the automotive industry Most component companies are dependent on global majors for technology

OPPORTUNITIES: • • •

May serve as sourcing hub for global automobile majors Significant export opportunities may be realised through diversification of export basket Implementation of Value-Added-Tax (VAT) in FY2004 will negate the cascading impact of prices

THREATS:


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” • • •

The presence of a large counterfeit components market poses a significant threat Pressure on prices from OEMs continues Imports pose price based competition in the replacement market

CHAPTER: 7 BUDGET IMPACT ON THESE SECTORS

Budget 2008-09: Automobile Industry: The Budget 2008 has finally brought welcome relief to the auto sector, which was otherwise spinning under a slowdown caused by firm interest rates. Mr. P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister on Friday, has announced a surprise cut in excise duty for small cars (4,000 mm in length and engines with 1.2 litres capacity, if petrol or 1.5 litres capacity, if diesel) from 16% to 12%. With this move, small cars will cost Rs. 7000 to 16000 less. Maruti Suzuki, a major listed player in the enger car market, will be the main beneficiary. The company has announced a reduction in prices of some of its models following Finance Minister P. Chidambaram's proposal. The models are Maruti 800, Omni, Zen, WagonR, Swift Diesel and Alto. Commercial vehicles, too, stand to beneficiated with the budget proposal. The excise duty on buses has been reduced to 12% while on trucks it was reduced to 14%. It is anticipated that the reduction will bring down prices by Rs 20,000-Rs 40,000. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Excise duties on hybrid cars have also been reduced by 14% to 24% and on two and three-wheelers to 16% from 24%. The Players across all segments, be it the two-wheeler, car or commercial vehicle makers, stand to benefit from the excise duty cuts announced. It is expected that duty reduction will provide cheer to small carmakers, two wheeler makers and bus makers. However, the budget failed to excite the industry captains, as corporate tax, dividend distribution tax and surcharge were left unchanged, contrary to market expectations. In order to encourage clean fuel technology, Mr. Chidambaram also reduced excise duty by 10% on hybrid cars, which are yet to be launched in the Indian market, from 24%.

Budget 2008: Impact on Auto Sector Proposal • Excise duty on small cars reduced to 12% from 16% • Excise duty on two & threewheelers reduced to 12% from 16% • Excise duty on buses and other transport vehicles reduced to 12% from 16% • Excise duty on hybrid cars reduced to 14% from 24% • Excise duty on electric cars down to zero from 8% • Excise duty on specified electric car parts withdrawn from 16%

Impact Positive: Will be ed on to customers and help demand growth. Gainers: Maruti, Tata Motors, Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto, Ashok Leyland

Budget Measures: • Reduction in excise duties from 16% to 12% on manufacturing of 2&3 wheelers, buses and small cars. • Agricultural credit outlay increased to Rs 2,80,000 crore. • 10% increase in defence sector allocation to Rs 1,05,600 crore. • Dividend tax paid by parent company allowed to be set off against the same paid by its subsidiary. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” • Higher allocation towards road development programme such as the NHDP

Budget Impact: • Excise duty reductions will help lower prices and stimulate demand for 2&3 wheelers and small cars. • Increased demand for new buses from STUs (State Transport Undertakings) as well as private players. • Higher defence allocation will spur investment in new vehicles. • Higher agricultural credit outlay will help boost demand for tractors. • Increased thrust on road infrastructure is a positive for all the automobile manufacturers especially enger vehicles and CVs.

Company Impact: • 2&3 wheeler makers like Hero Honda, Bajaj and TVS Motors to benefit from reduction in excise duties. • Small car players like Tata Motors and Maruti will reap the benefit from small cars excise duty reductions. • Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors, the leading bus manufacturers will benefit from excise duty reductions on buses. • Suppliers to the defence sector like M&M and Ashok Leyland to benefit from higher defence sector allocation. • Increased agriculture credit outlay will benefit two-wheeler makers as well as tractor manufacturers like M&M and Punjab Tractors.

Industry Wish list: • Excise duty of 16% which is applicable currently only on the small cars of certain engine and length specifications should be made applicable to vehicles across all the segments. • The weighted deduction of 150% of the expenses incurred on scientific research should be extended for a further period of at least 10 years even after 2012. Small cars,


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” which attract 16% excise duty, should be defined on the basis of the length of 4,000 mm and the criteria based on engine capacity should be removed. • Definition of capital goods should be amended to treat motor vehicle as capital goods for service providers such as Architect, Chartered ant, Cost ant, Company Secretary and the like. • No interest shall be charged on differential excise duty paid on finalization of prices. Alternatively this exemption from interest can be given for modvatable inputs or in the situation where gap between provisionally assessed price and finally assessed price is upto 20%. • An appropriate procedure/form etc. should be introduced for exempting goods from levy of CST, which is to be used in manufacture of products to be exported.

Budget over the years Budget 2005-06 Custom duty on second hand motorcars and motorcycles reduced to 100% as compared to 105% earlier. Custom duty on new cars maintained at 60%.

Budget 2006-07 Agricultural lending target set at Rs 1,750 bn for FY07, an increase of 32.5%. One time grant to farmers who have availed loans from scheduled commercial banks, RRBs and PSCs for Kharif and Rabi 2005-06 of a principle amount up to Rs 0.1 m and interest rate of up to 2%. Short-term credit to farmers at 7% for loans up to Rs 0.3 m and 0.6 m hectors to be brought under irrigation in FY07.

Budget 2007-08 Customs duty on new and second hand motor cars/two wheelers will continue at 60% and 100% respectively

Peak customs duty reduced Excise duty on cars having from 20% to 15%. engine capacity up to 1,200 Excise duty on tyres, tubes cc (petrol based engines)

A weighted deduction of 150% for expenditure relating to in-house research and development to be

Excise duty on tractors of engine capacity more than 1800 cc for semi trailers to attract @ 16%. Introduction of new income tax brackets.


Secondary and higher education cess @ 1% of the aggregate of duties of excise has been imposed on excisable goods including automobiles. This would be in addition to existing education cess of 2% imposed in budget 2004

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and flaps reduced from 24% and 1,500 cc (diesel based extended to five more years to 16%. Customs duty on engines) and length of the lead cut to 5%. car up to 4,000 mm reduced Hike in the dividend from 24% to 16%. distribution tax from the current 12.5% to 15% Budget for NHDP enhanced from Rs 93 bn to Farm credit outlay to be Rs 99 bn in 2006-07. increased by Rs 500 bn and Around 1,000 kms of 5 m new farmers to be added access-controlled to the banking system expressways (totaling six) to be developed on BOT basis. Custom duty on alloy steel and non-ferrous (primary and secondary) metals reduced from 10% to 7.5%. Peak customs duty reduced from 15% to 12.5%.

Key Positives

Key Negatives

Rising middle class: Expansion of population between the age group of 25 to 50 years, increasing affluence of the Indian middle class and heightened competition amongst automobile manufacturers, resulting in improved quality offerings, will continue to be the key drivers for the industry in of both market size and production capacities.

Competition from imports: With India coming under the WTO purview and the increasing free trade agreements (FTAs), competition is expected to rise multifold. Indian companies also have to contend with imports in the future. Already a number of global auto companies are introducing vehicles through the completely knocked down (CKD) route.

The 'Nano' effect: Penetration of cars in India at around 7 per thousand is even below countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka. However, the launch of Tata's small car 'Nano', touted to be the cheapest in the world is likely to change that. The price will make cars affordable to thousands of families, thus greatly pushing up the density

Taxation anomalies: Indian automobile industry is amongst the highly taxed industries as not only the final product bears heavy taxes but the cascading effect of duties on some key raw materials and components also hurts profit margins of auto companies. Also, multiple tax rules that exist in different states are eroding the


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in the country and giving a big boost to comparative advantage of a large domestic volumes. market thus making the uniform implementation of VAT (Value Added Tax) Increasing exports: The Indian auto necessary. industry has emerged as an export hub, on of its low cost technical manpower and increasing focus on quality. To give a perspective, in the last five years (FY02FY07), volume exports of Indian automobiles have increased by 41% CAGR, led by motorcycles (CAGR of 57%). This development has led to domestic players increasing their share of exports in the overall pie. Infrastructure thrust: Improvement in road infrastructure has led to increased movement of goods through roadways. Around 65% of all the goods movement in the country takes place by roads as opposed to 55% a decade ago. Also, owing to the fact that an estimated 45% of CVs (commercial vehicles) plying on the roads are more than 10 years old, demand for HCVs (heavy commercial vehicles) is expected to grow by a steady rate in the long term. Low interest rate regime: Close to 80% of the new vehicles being purchased in the country are financed, thus underlying the importance of a low interest rate regime to the fortunes of the industry. Though the interest rates have risen significantly in recent times, we believe it is likely to have only a small impact over the medium term as there has been a substantial rise in income levels. Regulation led benefits: Implementation of pollution norms like restriction on the age of the vehicle plying on the road and overloading of commercial vehicles would Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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seemingly aid higher volume growth of this segment.

CHAPTER: 8 COMPANY ANALYSIS MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD. Maruti Suzuki India Limited is a publicly listed automaker in India. It is a leading four-wheeler automobile manufacturer in South Asia. Suzuki Motor Corporation of Japan holds a majority stake in the company. It was the first company in India to massproduce and sell more than a million cars. It is largely credited for having brought in an automobile revolution to India. It is the market leader in India. On 17 September, 2007, Maruti Udyog was renamed to Maruti Suzuki India Limited. The company's headquarters remain in Gurgaon, near Delhi. Maruti Suzuki is one of India's leading automobile manufacturers and the market leader in the car segment, both in of volume of vehicles sold and revenue earned. Until recently, 18.28% of the company was owned by the Indian government, and 54.2% by Suzuki of Japan. The Indian government held an initial public offering of 25% of the Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” company in June 2003. As of May 10, 2007, Govt. of India sold its complete share to Indian financial institutions. With this, Govt. of India no longer has stake in Maruti Udyog. Maruti Udyog Limited (MUL) was established in February 1981, though the actual production commenced in 1983. Through 2004, Maruti has produced over 5 Million vehicles. Marutis are sold in India and various several other countries, depending upon export orders. Cars similar to Marutis (but not manufactured by Maruti Udyog) are sold by Suzuki in Pakistan and other South Asian countries. The company annually exports more than 30,000 cars and has an extremely large domestic market in India selling over 500,000 cars annually. Maruti 800, till 2004, was the India's largest selling compact car ever since it was launched in 1983. More than a million units of this car have been sold worldwide so far. Currently, Maruti Alto tops the sales charts. Due to the large number of Maruti 800s sold in the Indian market, the term "Maruti" is commonly used to refer to this compact car model. Till recently the term "Maruti", in popular Indian culture, was associated to the Maruti 800 model. Maruti Suzuki India Limited, a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation of Japan, has been the leader of the Indian car market for over two decades. It’s manufacturing facilities are located at two facilities Gurgaon and Manesar south of New Delhi. Maruti’s Gurgaon facility has an installed capacity of 350,000 units per annum. The Manesar facilities, launched in February 2007 comprise a vehicle assembly plant with a capacity of 100,000 units per year and a Diesel Engine plant with an annual capacity of 100,000 engines and transmissions. Manesar and Gurgaon facilities have a combined capability to produce over 700,000 units annually. More than half the cars sold in India are Maruti cars. The company is a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation, Japan, which owns 54.2 per cent of Maruti. The rest is owned by the public and financial institutions. It is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange in India. During 2006-07, Maruti Suzuki sold about 675,000 cars, of which 39,000 were exported. In all, over six million Maruti cars are on Indian roads since the first car was rolled out on December 14, 1983. Maruti Suzuki offers 10 models, ranging from the people’s car, Maruti 800, for less than Rs 200,000 ($ 5000) ex-showroom to the sedan SX 4 and luxury SUV, Grand Vitara.


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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Suzuki Motor Corporation, the parent company, is a global leader in mini and compact cars for three decades. Suzuki’s technical superiority lies in its ability to pack power and performance into a compact, lightweight engine that is clean and fuel efficient. Maruti is clearly an “employer of choice” for automotive engineers and young managers from across the country. Nearly 75,000 people are employed directly by Maruti and its partners. The company vouches for customer satisfaction. For its sincere efforts it has been rated (by customers)first in customer satisfaction among all car makers in India for seven years in a row in annual survey by J D Power Asia Pacific. Maruti Suzuki was born as a government company, with Suzuki as a minor partner, to make a people’s car for middle class India. Over the years, the product range has widened, ownership has changed hands and the customer has evolved. What remains unchanged, then and now, is Maruti’s mission to motorise India.

FINANCIAL SUMMARY: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd has announced the following Audited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007: The Company has posted profit after tax of Rs 467.04 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 376.41 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 i.e., 24.08% increase in profit after tax in the year 2007. Total Income has increased from Rs 4451.47 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 to Rs 5651.17 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Latest Quarterly Results Rs. cr year

Sales Income

2007/12 5,480.50

2006/12 4,323.04

var % 26.77

Other Income

170.67

128.43

32.89

4,867.25

3,815.88

27.55

14.36

15.74

-8.77

769.56

619.85

24.15

86.73

75.86

14.33

Tax

215.79

167.58

28.77

PAT

467.04

376.41

24.08

Expenditure Interest Gross Profit Depreciation


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Equity

144.46

144.46

0.00

OPM (%)

11.19

11.73

-0.54

GPM (%)

10.93

11.37

-0.44

NPM (%)

8.52

8.70

-0.18

Balance Sheet Rs. cr Year

Source of Funds Equity Capital Prefrential Capital Reserves and Surplus Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Application of Funds Gross Block Accumulated Deprecation Net Block NetCurrentAssets Total

Particulars Return on Equity Book Value Debt Equity P/E Ratio DPS EPS RONW Current Ratio Quick Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio Retention Ratio Bonus Adjustment Adjusted EPS

2007/03

2006/03

144.50

144.50

0.00

0.00

6,709.40

5,308.10

63.50

71.70

567.30

0.00

7,484.70

5,524.30

6,146.80

4,954.60

3,487.10

3,259.40

2,659.70

1,695.20

1,176.90

1,685.90

7,484.70

5,524.30

Fundamentals of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 2003 2004 2005 2006 0.0473 0.1510 0.1949 0.2181 107.23 124.30 151.56 188.73 0.14 0.08 0.07 0.01 1.50 5.07 3.93 1.57 1.20 11.60 16.1755 1 5.07


1.50 18.76 17.10 1.17 0.85 32.32 5.2187 1 18.76

2.00 29.55 19.03 1.68 1.25 49.70 4.1530 1 29.55

3.50 41.16 23.24 1.77 1.31 104.61 3.7969 1 41.16

2007 0.2279 237.23 0.09 14.58 4.50 54.07 22.63 1.42 1.13 68.23 3.7101 1 54.07

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Price Chart:

TATA MOTORS Tata Motors Limited formerly known as TELCO (TATA Engineering and Locomotive Company), (NYSE: TTM) - is India's largest enger automobile and commercial vehicle manufacturing company. It is a part of the Tata Group, and has its headquarters in Mumbai, Maharashtra. One of the world's largest manufacturers of commercial vehicles and known for its hatchback enger vehicle Tata Indica, Tata Motors has its manufacturing base in Jamshedpur, Lucknow, Pune and Singur. The OICA ranked it as the world's 21st largest vehicle manufacturer, based on figures for2006. Tata Motors was established in 1945, when the company began making trains. Tata Motors was first listed on the NYSE in 2004. Tata Motors gained Rs. 320 billion during 2001-2006 which was among the top 10 corporate profits in India. In 2004 it also bought Daewoo's truck manufacturing unit, now known as Tata Daewoo Commercial Vehicle, in South Korea. In March 2005, it acquired a 21% stake in Hispano Carrocera SA, giving it controlling rights in the company. On 10 January 2008, Tata Motors launched their much awaited Tata Nano, noted for its Rs 100,000 price-tag, at Auto Expo 2008 in Pragati Maidan, Delhi. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

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“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Tata Motors Limited is India's largest automobile company, with revenues of Rs. 32,426 crores (USD 7.2 billion) in 2006-07. It is the leader by far in commercial vehicles in each segment, and the second largest in the enger vehicles market with winning products in the compact, midsize car and utility vehicle segments. The company is the world's fifth largest medium and heavy commercial vehicle manufacturer, and the world's second largest medium and heavy bus manufacturer. The company's 22,000 employees are guided by the vision to be "best in the manner in which we operate, best in the products we deliver, and best in our value system and ethics." Tata Motors helps its employees realise their potential through innovative HR practices. The company's goal is to empower and provide employees with dynamic career paths in congruence with corporate objectives. All-round potential development and performance improvement is ensured by regular in-house and external training. The company has won several awards recognizing its training programmes. Tata Motors, the first company from India's engineering sector to be listed in the New York Stock Exchange (September 2004), has also emerged as an international automobile company. In 2004, it acquired the Daewoo Commercial Vehicles Company, Korea's second largest truck maker. The rechristened Tata Daewoo Commercial Vehicles Company has launched several new products in the Korean market, while also exporting these products to several international markets. The Tata Group is one of India's largest and most respected business conglomerates, with revenues in 2006-07 of $28.8 billion, the equivalent of about 3.2 per cent of the country's GDP, and the international revenues of the Group in 2006-07 were US$ 10.8 billion, contributing to 38% of the total Group revenues. Tata companies together employ over 300,000 people. FINANCIAL SUMMARY: The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 499.05 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 513.17 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total Revenues has increased from Rs 8061.73 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2005 to Rs 8456.18 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Latest Quarterly Results Rs. cr Year

Sales Income

2007/12 8,364.37

2006/12 8,047.41

var % 3.94

Other Income

91.81

14.32

541.13


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Expenditure

7,531.80

7,123.86

5.73

91.77

85.17

7.75

Gross Profit

832.61

852.70

-2.36

Depreciation

167.51

143.50

16.73

Tax

166.05

195.57

-15.09

PAT

499.05

513.17

-2.75

Equity

385.54

385.32

0.06

OPM (%)

9.95

11.48

-1.53

GPM (%)

8.86

10.42

-1.56

NPM (%)

5.96

6.37

-0.41

Interest

Balance Sheet Rs. cr Year

Source of Funds Equity Capital Prefrential Capital Reserves and Surplus Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Application of Funds Gross Block Accumulated Deprecation Net Block NetCurrentAssets Total

Particulars Return on Equity Book Value

2007/03

2006/03

385.41

382.87

0.00

0.00

6,458.39

5,127.81

2,022.04

822.76

1,987.10

2,114.08

10,852.94

8,447.52

8,775.80

7,971.55

4,894.54

4,401.51

3,855.31

3,543.65

1,997.22

1,923.41

10,852.94

8,447.52

Fundamentals of Tata Motors 2003 2004 2005 0.1156 0.2257 0.3009 81.22 101.71 113.65


2006 0.2774 143.94

2007 0.2796 177.59 62

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Debt Equity P/E Ratio DPS EPS RONW Current Ratio Quick Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio Retention Ratio Bonus Adjustment Adjusted EPS

0.56

0.35

0.60

0.53

4.00 9.38 12.32 0.84 0.52 3.82 0.5192 1 9.38

8.00 22.96 22.98 0,72 0.47 8.69 0.7599 1 22.96

12.50 34.19 30.12 0.99 0.76 10.24 0.8776 1 34.19

13.00 39.94 24.17 1.24 0.96 8.08 0.9986 1 39.94

0.58 12.67 15.00 49.65 24.67 1.24 0.91 7.62 1.0525 1 49.65

Price Chart:


63



64


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

CHAPTER: 9 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS [By Using RSI Method]

Company: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Sector: Automobile Sector Relative Strength Index Dates 2-Apr-07 3-Apr-07 4-Apr-07 5-Apr-07 9-Apr-07 10-Apr-07

Closing Price 749.25 756.45 745.95 755.9 789.45 786.15

Gain 7.2 9.95 33.55 -


Loss 10.5 3.3

Avg.Gain

Avg.Loss

RS

RSI

65

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 11-Apr-07 12-Apr-07 13-Apr-07 16-Apr-07 17-Apr-07 18-Apr-07 19-Apr-07 20-Apr-07 23-Apr-07 24-Apr-07 25-Apr-07 26-Apr-07 27-Apr-07 30-Apr-07 3-May-07 4-May-07 7-May-07 8-May-07 9-May-07 10-May-07 11-May-07 14-May-07 15-May-07 16-May-07 17-May-07 18-May-07 21-May-07 Dates 22-May-07 23-May-07 24-May-07 25-May-07 28-May-07 29-May-07 30-May-07 31-May-07 1-Jun-07 4-Jun-07 5-Jun-07 6-Jun-07 7-Jun-07 8-Jun-07 11-Jun-07

781.95 758.95 771.95 778 762.1 764.25 771.9 778.6 766.9 796 791 797.5 795.9 806.1 814.35 807.45 804.95 800.75 802.3 794.9 795.5 803.7 806.55 802.55 816.8 810.1 821 Closing Price 830.6 815.2 810.4 810.3 825.95 819.95 804.6 817.1 811.25 806.55 799.8 776.6 760.95 737.55 733.35

13 6.05 2.15 7.65 6.7 29.1 6.5 10.2 8.25 1.55 0.6 8.2 2.85 14.25 10.9

4.2 23 15.9 11.7 5 1.6 6.9 2.5 4.2 7.4 4 6.7 -

Gain 9.6 15.65 12.5 -

Loss


15.4 4.8 0.1 6 15.35 5.85 4.7 6.75 23.2 15.65 23.4 4.2

10.78125 10.78125 13.51875 13.51875 13.0875 10.16429 10.16875 9.955556 9.955556 9.575 10.07857 9.0125 9.992857 8.985714 9.2 8.40625 5.45 6.55 6.557143 7.1

11.38 11.43333 11.43333 10.51667 10.51667 9.242857 10.23333 11.44 8.22 7.266667 6.828571 5.316667 5.614286 5.614286 5.614286 4.6 4.514286 4.433333 4.757143 5.283333

0.947386 0.942966 1.182398 1.28546 1.244453 1.099691 0.993689 0.870241 1.211138 1.317661 1.475941 1.695141 1.779898 1.600509 1.638677 1.827446 1.207278 1.477444 1.378378 1.343849

48.64911 48.53231 54.17884 56.24512 55.44572 52.37394 49.84172 46.53095 54.77442 56.85304 59.61132 62.89619 64.02746 61.54599 62.10222 64.63239 54.69534 59.63581 57.95455 57.33513

Avg.Gain 7.025 6.85 6.85 6.85 7.95 8.864286 8.864286 10.56429 10.95833 12.58 12.58 12.1625 12.1625 12.58333 14.075

Avg.Loss 5.283333 6.728571 6.428571 6.085714 6.4 6.342857 7.478571 7.478571 7.275 6.988889 7.294444 8.885 9.78 11.01818 10.45

RS 1.329653 1.018047 1.065556 1.125587 1.242188 1.397523 1.185291 1.412607 1.5063 1.8 1.7246 1.36888 1.243609 1.142052 1.34689

RSI 57.07515 50.44713 51.58687 52.95417 55.4007 58.29028 54.23951 58.55107 60.10055 64.28571 63.29737 57.78596 55.42896 53.31579 57.39042 66

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 12-Jun-07 13-Jun-07 14-Jun-07 15-Jun-07 18-Jun-07 19-Jun-07 20-Jun-07 21-Jun-07 22-Jun-07 25-Jun-07 26-Jun-07 27-Jun-07 28-Jun-07 29-Jun-07 2-Jul-07 3-Jul-07 4-Jul-07 5-Jul-07 6-Jul-07 9-Jul-07 10-Jul-07 11-Jul-07 12-Jul-07 13-Jul-07 16-Jul-07 17-Jul-07 18-Jul-07 19-Jul-07 Dates 20-Jul-07 23-Jul-07 24-Jul-07 25-Jul-07 26-Jul-07 27-Jul-07 30-Jul-07 31-Jul-07 1-Aug-07 2-Aug-07 3-Aug-07 6-Aug-07 7-Aug-07 8-Aug-07

719.65 721.2 729.15 740.1 742.85 751.45 767.9 759.05 761.35 753.3 757.3 751.3 748.7 744.15 770.6 783.5 791.4 805.05 797 795.7 813.75 806.3 828.35 831.3 827.65 824.85 820.65 827.05 Closing Price 826.9 830.05 819.55 809.9 839.4 830.25 845.85 844.55 821.2 832.3 850.65 824.9 824.85 836.6

1.55 7.95 10.95 2.75 8.6 16.45 2.3 4 26.45 12.9 7.9 13.65 18.05 22.05 2.95 6.4

13.7 8.85 8.05 6 2.6 4.55 8.05 1.3 7.45 3.65 2.8 4.2 -

14.075 9.9 9.4125 8.2375 7.14 7.383333 8.041667 8.041667 7.221429 7.221429 6.81875 6.81875 6.81875 6.81875 9 10.26111 10.25556 10.55556 11.53125 11.95 12.17857 12.17857 15 13.49375 14.85 14.85 14.85 13.79375

10.30833 10.80909 11.88 11.88 12.53333 12.18125 12.18125 12.55625 13.67857 13.86429 12.30833 10.7 7.233333 7.291667 6.01 6.01 6.01 6.01 6.35 5.628571 5.628571 5.428571 5.428571 4.991667 4.8 4.342857 4.571429 4.575

1.3654 0.915896 0.792298 0.693392 0.569681 0.606123 0.660168 0.640451 0.527937 0.520866 0.553995 0.637266 0.942684 0.935143 1.497504 1.70734 1.706415 1.756332 1.815945 2.123096 2.163706 2.243421 2.763158 2.703255 3.09375 3.419408 3.248438 3.015027

57.72386 47.80509 44.20571 40.94694 36.29278 37.73826 39.76512 39.04117 34.55229 34.24797 35.64971 38.92258 48.52483 48.32423 59.96003 63.06337 63.05075 63.7199 64.48794 67.9805 68.3915 69.16836 73.42657 72.99673 75.57252 77.37253 76.46193 75.09357

Gain 3.15 29.5 15.6 11.1 18.35 11.75

Loss 0.15 10.5 9.65 9.15 1.3 23.35 25.75 0.05 -

Avg.Gain 11.98571 10.59286 11.04167 10.52 13.68333 13.68333 13.275 13.275 11.52 13.15 14.01667 14.01667 14.01667 14.90833

Avg.Loss 3.942857 3.942857 4.7625 5.305556 4.9625 5.94375 5.94375 5.175 7.194444 7.194444 7.6375 10.50625 9.9875 9.9875

RS 3.039855 2.686594 2.31846 1.982827 2.757347 2.302138 2.233438 2.565217 1.601236 1.827799 1.835243 1.334127 1.403421 1.492699

RSI 75.24664 72.87469 69.86554 66.47476 73.38547 69.71659 69.07317 71.95122 61.55673 64.63681 64.72965 57.15742 58.39264 59.88285


67

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 9-Aug-07 10-Aug-07 13-Aug-07 14-Aug-07 16-Aug-07 17-Aug-07 20-Aug-07 21-Aug-07 22-Aug-07 23-Aug-07 24-Aug-07 27-Aug-07 28-Aug-07 29-Aug-07 30-Aug-07 31-Aug-07 3-Sep-07 4-Sep-07 5-Sep-07 6-Sep-07 7-Sep-07 10-Sep-07 11-Sep-07 12-Sep-07 13-Sep-07 14-Sep-07 17-Sep-07 18-Sep-07 19-Sep-07 Dates 20-Sep-07 21-Sep-07 24-Sep-07 25-Sep-07 26-Sep-07 27-Sep-07 28-Sep-07 1-Oct-07 3-Oct-07 4-Oct-07 5-Oct-07 8-Oct-07 9-Oct-07

826.85 809.55 832.7 823.55 793.45 778.65 783.75 767.5 765.8 775.95 790.05 833.45 832.5 833.55 836.75 867.7 881.65 893.3 873.75 880.65 873.3 874.6 861.15 859.55 891.7 866.75 874.95 875.4 923.85 Closing Price 910.15 931.4 980.75 991.15 961.95 980.15 998.75 990.15 1019.25 1042.25 1034.85 1025.25 1105.05

23.15 5.1 10.15 14.1 43.4 1.05 3.2 30.95 13.95 11.65 6.9 1.3 32.15 8.2 0.45 48.45

9.75 17.3 9.15 30.1 14.8 16.25 1.7 0.95 19.55 7.35 13.45 1.6 24.95 -

14.90833 17.26 18.24167 18.24167 15.99 15.99 13.89 13.89 13.89 13.7 12.85 17.94167 17.94167 16.15833 14.30714 16.3875 15.2375 14.83889 14.83889 14.045 15.03889 13.665 13.665 14.05556 16.06111 12.64375 12.15 12.08333 17.11111

11.1875 11.86667 12.0375 11.975 13.98889 14.61667 14.61667 16.27778 13.87222 13.87222 13.87222 12.3875 12.5 12.5 12.89286 12.15833 12.15833 12.76 10.65 9.6125 9.16 7.3875 10.325 8.58 8.58 11.30833 13.38 13.38 13.38

1.332588 1.454494 1.515403 1.523312 1.14305 1.093957 0.950285 0.853311 1.001282 0.987585 0.926312 1.448369 1.435333 1.292667 1.109695 1.347841 1.253256 1.162922 1.393323 1.461118 1.6418 1.849746 1.323487 1.638177 1.871924 1.118091 0.908072 0.903089 1.278857

57.12917 59.25841 60.24494 60.36955 53.33753 52.24352 48.72544 46.0425 50.03202 49.68769 48.08732 59.15648 58.93786 56.38267 52.59979 57.40768 55.61977 53.76625 58.21709 59.36807 62.14702 64.90916 56.96123 62.09503 65.18014 52.78768 47.59107 47.45386 56.11836

Gain

Loss 13.7 29.2 8.6 7.4 9.6 -

Avg.Gain 15.38125 16.29375 21.00625 19.82778 21.44375 21.08333 23.00556 23.00556 23.615 22.7 22.7 24.31111 33.12778

Avg.Loss 13.43333 13.43333 13.43333 12.21 15.04167 16.58 16.58 15.61 19.1125 19.1125 14.725 13.7 13.7

RS 1.145006 1.212934 1.563741 1.623897 1.425623 1.271612 1.387549 1.47377 1.235579 1.187704 1.541596 1.774534 2.418086

RSI 53.38009 54.81113 60.9945 61.88874 58.77348 55.97841 58.11604 59.57588 55.26885 54.28999 60.65464 63.95791 70.74386

21.25 49.35 10.4 18.2 18.6 29.1 23 79.8


68

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 10-Oct-07 11-Oct-07 12-Oct-07 15-Oct-07 16-Oct-07 17-Oct-07 18-Oct-07 19-Oct-07 22-Oct-07 23-Oct-07 24-Oct-07 25-Oct-07 26-Oct-07 29-Oct-07 30-Oct-07 31-Oct-07 1-Nov-07 2-Nov-07 5-Nov-07 6-Nov-07 7-Nov-07 8-Nov-07 9-Nov-07 12-Nov-07 13-Nov-07 14-Nov-07 15-Nov-07 16-Nov-07 19-Nov-07 20-Nov-07 Dates 21-Nov-07 22-Nov-07 23-Nov-07 26-Nov-07 27-Nov-07 28-Nov-07 29-Nov-07 30-Nov-07 3-Dec-07 4-Dec-07 5-Dec-07 6-Dec-07

1101.05 1119.35 1096.75 1160.7 1184.7 1174 1139.35 1076.6 1060.15 1102.9 1118.45 1164.2 1182.2 1189.85 1087.4 1073.85 1006.55 1021.2 994.65 972 999.35 994.5 990.05 995.5 1003.05 1038.25 1037.15 1046.95 1053.8 1007 Closing Price 954.25 965.25 947.45 951.7 937.45 967.5 990.1 1014.15 1032.85 1027.95 1034.4 1040.8

18.3 63.95 24 42.75 15.55 45.75 18 7.65 14.65 27.35 5.45 7.55 35.2 9.8 6.85 -

4 22.6 10.7 34.65 62.75 16.45 102.45 13.55 67.3 26.55 22.65 4.85 4.45 1.1 46.8

31.2125 29.77778 30.84375 32.66875 34.36875 34.36875 36.67857 39.69167 39.69167 41.96667 40.725 41.44286 38.5125 29.49375 29.49375 31.09286 31.09286 24.05 24.05833 24.05833 24.52857 24.52857 24.52857 19.2 18.05714 16.55 16.30833 16.66667 15.26429 15.26429

12.08333 11.76 13.56667 13.56667 13.56667 10.48333 13.93571 20.0375 21.01875 21.01875 21.01875 22.96429 25.19167 25.19167 41.6 37.59286 43.97857 43.97857 41.8 43.29375 44.52857 36.25714 34.54286 34.54286 34.54286 34.54286 30.3625 30.3625 20.06429 24.81429

2.583103 2.532124 2.273495 2.408016 2.533323 3.278418 2.631984 1.980869 1.888393 1.99663 1.937556 1.804666 1.528779 1.170774 0.708984 0.827095 0.707 0.546857 0.575558 0.5557 0.55085 0.676517 0.710091 0.555831 0.522746 0.479115 0.537121 0.548923 0.760769 0.615141

72.09123 71.68842 69.45161 70.65741 71.69803 76.62688 72.46684 66.45274 65.37868 66.62918 65.95809 64.34513 60.45523 53.93348 41.48571 45.2683 41.4177 35.35279 36.53043 35.72025 35.51924 40.35253 41.52358 35.72568 34.32917 32.392 34.94331 35.439 43.20663 38.0859

Gain 11 4.25 30.05 22.6 24.05 18.7 6.45 6.4

Loss 52.75 17.8 14.25 4.9 -

Avg.Gain 15.26429 14.74286 14.74286 13.43125 11.44286 13.76875 14.75 16.81667 18.05556 15.9125 14.86111 14.48333

Avg.Loss 22.73571 22.73571 21.48571 21.29167 20.28571 22.85833 26.54 26.54 26.54 22.93333 27.3 27.3

RS 0.671379 0.648445 0.68617 0.630822 0.564085 0.602351 0.555765 0.633635 0.680315 0.693859 0.544363 0.530525

RSI 40.16917 39.33676 40.69401 38.68123 36.06484 37.59172 35.72294 38.78681 40.48734 40.96321 35.24839 34.66294


69

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 7-Dec-07 10-Dec-07 11-Dec-07 12-Dec-07 13-Dec-07 14-Dec-07 17-Dec-07 18-Dec-07 19-Dec-07 20-Dec-07 24-Dec-07 26-Dec-07 27-Dec-07 28-Dec-07 31-Dec-07 1-Jan-08 2-Jan-08 3-Jan-08 4-Jan-08 7-Jan-08 8-Jan-08 9-Jan-08 10-Jan-08 11-Jan-08 14-Jan-08 15-Jan-08 16-Jan-08 17-Jan-08 18-Jan-08 21-Jan-08 22-Jan-08 Dates 23-Jan-08 24-Jan-08 25-Jan-08 28-Jan-08 29-Jan-08 30-Jan-08 31-Jan-08 1-Feb-08 4-Feb-08 5-Feb-08 6-Feb-08

1041.45 1045.65 1077.6 1073.3 1037 1042.35 1012.8 1018 998 993.6 990.25 993.1 995.2 986.6 994.5 991.55 997.05 973.2 964.15 963.75 939.8 924.75 909.2 899.7 863.45 871.35 847.7 864.8 842 803.2 807.05 Closing Price 826.15 788.75 833.7 864.7 863 844.9 850.2 905.75 897.35 872.6 832.25

0.65 4.2 31.95 5.35 5.2 2.85 2.1 7.9 5.5 7.9 17.1 3.85

4.3 36.3 29.55 20 4.4 3.35 8.6 2.95 23.85 9.05 0.4 23.95 15.05 15.55 9.5 36.25 23.65 22.8 38.8 -

13.79444 12.835 14.57273 14.93 14.93 15.04 15.04 12.555 11.43889 9.8625 8.6 7.88125 7.3375 7.471429 8.507143 9.225 4.816667 4.816667 4.816667 4.71 4.71 4.5875 4.5875 4.5875 4.5875 5.85 7.1 9.6 10.16667 10.16667 9.616667

27.3 22.425 12.31667 10.3125 14.9375 14.9375 18.7625 18.7625 19.01 16.575 14.68571 16.31667 16.31667 15.21429 15.21429 13.68125 13.68125 16.125 12.71875 11.35 10.72778 11.16 10.715 11.225 14.515 14.515 15.34545 16.02 16.63636 19.89545 19.89545

0.505291 0.572352 1.183171 1.447758 0.999498 1.006862 0.801599 0.669154 0.60173 0.595023 0.585603 0.483018 0.449694 0.49108 0.559155 0.67428 0.352063 0.298708 0.378706 0.414978 0.439047 0.411066 0.428138 0.408686 0.316052 0.403031 0.462678 0.599251 0.611111 0.511004 0.48336

33.56766 36.40102 54.19508 59.14628 49.98744 50.17096 44.49375 40.08941 37.56751 37.30496 36.93252 32.56995 31.0199 32.93451 35.86269 40.27285 26.03897 23.0004 27.46822 29.32752 30.50957 29.13161 29.97876 29.01186 24.01518 28.72575 31.63224 37.47073 37.93103 33.81886 32.58548

Gain 19.1 44.95 31 5.3 55.55 -

Loss 37.4 1.7 18.1 8.4 24.75 40.35

Avg.Gain 11.9875 11.9875 18.58 20.65 20.65 20.65 18.45714 23.09375 25.26429 25.26429 26.625

Avg.Loss 19.5 22.335 24.77222 24.875 23.20625 23.525 25.52857 23.74167 21.55 21.70714 24.0375

RS 0.614744 0.536714 0.750034 0.830151 0.889846 0.87779 0.722999 0.97271 1.172357 1.16387 1.107644

RSI 38.07066 34.92607 42.85824 45.35969 47.08565 46.7459 41.96168 49.3083 53.96704 53.7865 52.55366


70

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 7-Feb-08 8-Feb-08 11-Feb-08 12-Feb-08 13-Feb-08 14-Feb-08 15-Feb-08 18-Feb-08 19-Feb-08 20-Feb-08 21-Feb-08 22-Feb-08 25-Feb-08 26-Feb-08 27-Feb-08 28-Feb-08 29-Feb-08 3-Mar-08 4-Mar-08 5-Mar-08 7-Mar-08 10-Mar-08 11-Mar-08 12-Mar-08 13-Mar-08 14-Mar-08 17-Mar-08 18-Mar-08 19-Mar-08 24-Mar-08 25-Mar-08 26-Mar-08 Dates 27-Mar-08 28-Mar-08 31-Mar-08

800 805.75 813.35 807.7 817.25 829.2 812.45 806.2 809.4 769.7 763.15 766.35 800.55 813.3 832.9 837.15 868.2 872.65 904.55 940.2 927.85 895.05 866.65 857.4 840.35 832.7 806.55 813.35 822.45 810.2 843.85 845.6 Closing Price 838.3 837.8 827 Average

5.75 7.6 9.55 11.95 3.2 3.2 34.2 12.75 19.6 4.25 31.05 4.45 31.9 35.65 6.8 9.1 33.65 1.75

32.25 5.65 16.75 6.25 39.7 6.55 12.35 32.8 28.4 9.25 17.05 7.65 26.15 12.25 -

26.625 23.64286 24.17857 25.025 22.81429 18.1 15.95 15.95 14.12857 15.6 7.61 6.875 10.77857 11.025 11.97778 11.81111 14.41667 13.42 15.655 18.025 18.025 18.025 19.67222 19.67222 19.67222 21.73125 19.95 19.1 17.6 19.825 20.25833 19.80833

25.21875 23.27857 23.27857 21.075 18.74286 18.74286 18.49375 19.0625 19.2 21.7625 20.07222 21.53125 21.07143 17.85833 14.98 14.98 14.98 17.3125 17.3125 17.3125 16.2125 22.85 23.96 17.87 19.97 17.91667 19.09286 19.09286 19.09286 18.2375 18.2375 18.2375

1.055762 1.015649 1.038662 1.187426 1.217226 0.965701 0.862454 0.836721 0.735863 0.716829 0.379131 0.319303 0.511525 0.617359 0.799585 0.788459 0.962394 0.775162 0.90426 1.041155 1.111796 0.78884 0.821044 1.100852 0.985089 1.212907 1.044893 1.000374 0.921811 1.087046 1.110806 1.086132

51.35624 50.38819 50.94822 54.28416 54.89859 49.12757 46.30739 45.55516 42.39177 41.75309 27.49057 24.20242 33.84167 38.1708 44.43162 44.08593 49.04184 43.66713 47.48616 51.00814 52.64695 44.09786 45.08645 52.40026 49.62442 54.81057 51.09769 50.00935 47.96574 52.08539 52.62474 52.0644

Gain 15.662

Loss 7.3 0.5 10.8 15.04

Avg.Gain 17.39 12.825 12.825

Avg.Loss 17.02222 15.37 15.215

RS 1.021606 0.834418 0.842918

RSI 50.53437 45.48679 45.73823

Relative Strength Index: The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

71


RSI of Maruti Suzuki Scrip

90 80 70

RSI

60 50 RSI

40 30 20 10

3/2/2008

2/2/2008

1/2/2008

12/2/2007

11/2/2007

10/2/2007

9/2/2007

8/2/2007

7/2/2007

6/2/2007

5/2/2007

4/2/2007

0

Dates

A 14 day RSI is calculated for stock it is recommended by wilder that a 14 period will be a good indicator. By using the simple formula RSI = {100- [100 / (1+RS)]}.it states that if RSI is below 30 buy & if it crosses above 70 then sell it. From 2nd April 07 to 31st March 08 the RSI is calculated, the best time to sell the stock was between 12th July 07 to 31st July 07 and 9th October 07 to 18th October 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 2nd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days. Company: Tata Motors

Sector: Automobile Sector Relative Strength Index Date 2-Apr-07 3-Apr-07 4-Apr-07 5-Apr-07 9-Apr-07

Closing Price 670.9 681.4 682.8 686.1 703.7

Gain 10.5 1.4 3.3 17.6

Loss -


Avg.Gain

Avg.Loss

RS

RSI

72

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 10-Apr-07 11-Apr-07 12-Apr-07 13-Apr-07 16-Apr-07 17-Apr-07 18-Apr-07 19-Apr-07 20-Apr-07 23-Apr-07 24-Apr-07 25-Apr-07 26-Apr-07 27-Apr-07 30-Apr-07 3-May-07 4-May-07 7-May-07 8-May-07 9-May-07 10-May-07 11-May-07 14-May-07 15-May-07 16-May-07 17-May-07 18-May-07 21-May-07 22-May-07 23-May-07 24-May-07 25-May-07 28-May-07 Date 29-May-07 30-May-07 31-May-07 1-Jun-07 4-Jun-07 5-Jun-07 6-Jun-07 7-Jun-07 8-Jun-07

721.55 722.8 712.4 726.3 750.25 730.6 722.5 713.1 722.9 718.15 741.6 759.05 766.6 749.35 751.75 733.1 731.5 728.3 725.1 723.25 714.85 716.1 715.2 714.35 734.65 750.6 741.8 725.45 726.95 708 712.7 726.95 732.75 Closing Price 740.85 742.1 755.7 747.95 710.85 710.5 688 677.85 652.2

17.85 1.25 13.9 23.95 9.8 23.45 17.45 7.55 2.4 1.25 20.3 15.95 1.5 4.7 14.25 5.8

10.4 19.65 8.1 9.4 4.75 17.25 18.65 1.6 3.2 3.2 1.85 8.4 0.9 0.85 8.8 16.35 18.95 -

11.06111 11.06111 12.5 14.28333 14.75556 14.4 12.46875 14.07143 14.07143 14.1 12.13 12.13 12.13 10.31667 10.42 10.42 9.79 9.49 9.975 9.975 9.75 9.75 8.74 9.658333 9.107143

11.8875 10.46 10.46 10.46 10.46 11.59167 11.59167 12.6 11.34286 10.325 9.533333 7.555556 7.588889 7.3625 6.644444 6.211111 6.211111 6.211111 6.47 6.38 6.38 6.41 6.944444 7.4125 8.014286

0.930483 1.057468 1.195029 1.365519 1.410665 1.242272 1.075665 1.11678 1.240554 1.365617 1.272378 1.605441 1.598389 1.401245 1.568227 1.677639 1.576208 1.527907 1.541731 1.56348 1.528213 1.521061 1.25856 1.302979 1.136364

48.19948 51.39656 54.44251 57.72599 58.51767 55.40237 51.82267 52.75844 55.36818 57.72774 55.99323 61.61878 61.51462 58.35494 61.06264 62.65366 61.18325 60.44158 60.65673 60.99052 60.44637 60.33416 55.724 56.57798 53.19149

Gain 8.1 1.25 13.6 -

Loss 7.75 37.1 0.35 22.5 10.15 25.65

Avg.Gain 8.98125 8.122222 9.494444 9.494444 9.494444 8.14375 7.028571 7.028571 7.028571

Avg.Loss 9.041667 9.17 9.17 10.54 17.79 14.88333 15.97143 16.16429 17.49286

RS 0.993318 0.885739 1.035381 0.900801 0.533696 0.547172 0.440072 0.434821 0.401797

RSI 49.83239 46.97038 50.86915 47.39061 34.79801 35.36596 30.55901 30.3049 28.66298


73

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 11-Jun-07 12-Jun-07 13-Jun-07 14-Jun-07 15-Jun-07 18-Jun-07 19-Jun-07 20-Jun-07 21-Jun-07 22-Jun-07 25-Jun-07 26-Jun-07 27-Jun-07 28-Jun-07 29-Jun-07 2-Jul-07 3-Jul-07 4-Jul-07 5-Jul-07 6-Jul-07 9-Jul-07 10-Jul-07 11-Jul-07 12-Jul-07 13-Jul-07 16-Jul-07 17-Jul-07 18-Jul-07 19-Jul-07 20-Jul-07 23-Jul-07 24-Jul-07 25-Jul-07 26-Jul-07 Date 27-Jul-07 30-Jul-07 31-Jul-07 1-Aug-07 2-Aug-07 3-Aug-07 6-Aug-07 7-Aug-07

653.2 641.2 645.2 642.25 650.4 644.95 663.5 686.4 687.5 684.3 678.15 684.6 671.7 664.4 670.2 682.2 685.85 701.35 709.55 711.2 716.3 743.25 736.1 739.85 767.05 759.5 748.8 743.35 776.75 767.6 766.6 747.1 726 731.85 Closing Price 699.15 707.25 699.4 667.4 651.8 656.35 648.8 657.7

1 4 8.15 18.55 22.9 1.1 6.45 5.8 12 3.65 15.5 8.2 1.65 5.1 26.95 3.75 27.2 33.4 5.85

12 2.95 5.45 3.2 6.15 12.9 7.3 7.15 7.55 10.7 5.45 9.15 1 19.5 21.1 -

6.957143 6.957143 6.857143 5.625 6.016667 5.6 9.06 10.92 9.283333 9.283333 9.283333 8.878571 8.878571 8.878571 9.564286 9.86875 9.825 10.45556 10.46111 9.58 8.235 8.64 9.477778 8.905 10.56818 10.98 10.98 10.98 13.74 13.93333 15.21875 15.17857 16.34167 17.04167

17.49286 16.5 16.5 14.80625 14.80625 13.76667 13.76667 13.76667 14.51875 10.28125 11.00625 9.364286 9.757143 7.135714 7.135714 6.325 6.325 7 7 7.3875 7.3875 7.3875 7.34 8.375 9.116667 8.725 8.175 7.7125 7.7125 8 6.833333 8.642857 10.2 10.2

0.397713 0.421645 0.415584 0.379907 0.40636 0.40678 0.658111 0.79322 0.639403 0.902938 0.84346 0.948131 0.909956 1.244244 1.34034 1.560277 1.55336 1.493651 1.494444 1.296785 1.114721 1.169543 1.29125 1.063284 1.159216 1.258453 1.343119 1.423663 1.781524 1.741667 2.227134 1.756198 1.602124 1.670752

28.45457 29.65895 29.3578 27.53136 28.89445 28.91566 39.69042 44.2344 39.00219 47.44969 45.75418 48.66875 47.64278 55.44157 57.27117 60.94172 60.83591 59.89815 59.91091 56.46088 52.71243 53.90735 56.35571 51.53356 53.68688 55.7219 57.32185 58.74014 64.04848 63.52584 69.01275 63.71814 61.56986 62.55736

Gain 8.1 4.55 8.9

Loss 32.7 7.85 32 15.6 7.55 -

Avg.Gain 19.43 15.66 15.66 18.6375 15.78333 12.975 12.975 12.16

Avg.Loss 12.7 12.7 12.77778 14.7 14.78182 15.505 15.19 16.27222

RS 1.529921 1.233071 1.225565 1.267857 1.067753 0.836827 0.85418 0.747286

RSI 60.47308 55.21862 55.06759 55.90551 51.63833 45.55829 46.06781 42.76838


74

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 8-Aug-07 9-Aug-07 10-Aug-07 13-Aug-07 14-Aug-07 16-Aug-07 17-Aug-07 20-Aug-07 21-Aug-07 22-Aug-07 23-Aug-07 24-Aug-07 27-Aug-07 28-Aug-07 29-Aug-07 30-Aug-07 31-Aug-07 3-Sep-07 4-Sep-07 5-Sep-07 6-Sep-07 7-Sep-07 10-Sep-07 11-Sep-07 12-Sep-07 13-Sep-07 14-Sep-07 17-Sep-07 18-Sep-07 19-Sep-07 20-Sep-07 21-Sep-07 24-Sep-07 25-Sep-07 26-Sep-07 Date 27-Sep-07 28-Sep-07 1-Oct-07 3-Oct-07 4-Oct-07 5-Oct-07 8-Oct-07

658.95 663.55 669.4 692.55 691.15 660.5 641.15 649.85 634.15 619.5 620.8 656.6 675.4 663.05 674.15 680.75 701.75 702.85 691.35 698.85 712.05 695.15 702.7 689.15 684.75 695 693.75 694.75 696.1 720.4 731.25 741 747.2 740.9 739.9 Closing Price 751.3 776.9 773.3 788.1 799.45 779.05 764.35

1.25 4.6 5.85 23.15 8.7 1.3 35.8 18.8 11.1 6.6 21 1.1 7.5 13.2 7.55 10.25 1 1.35 24.3 10.85 9.75 6.2 -

1.4 30.65 19.35 15.7 14.65 12.35 11.5 16.9 13.55 4.4 1.25 6.3 1

5.73 5.541667 5.585714 7.78125 7.78125 8.057143 8.057143 8.142857 8.142857 8.142857 7.2875 11.19375 12.03889 12.43125 13.6625 13.9125 15.80625 13.05 13.05 12.43333 12.51 12.93333 12.395 12.395 13.62778 10.78889 9.7875 8.811111 7.727778 9.694444 8.566667 9.527778 9.195 9.383333 8.90625

16.27222 17.1625 19.47143 19.46667 16.18333 18.25 16.34286 16.34286 17.46429 14.98571 14.88333 14.88333 16.35 15.68333 15.68333 15.68333 15.68333 15.68333 17.36667 14.71 13.55 14.22 13.85 13.575 11.74 11.74 9.991667 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.025 8.48 7.233333

0.352134 0.322894 0.286867 0.399722 0.480819 0.441487 0.493007 0.498252 0.466258 0.543375 0.489642 0.7521 0.736323 0.792641 0.871148 0.887088 1.007837 0.832094 0.75144 0.84523 0.923247 0.909517 0.894946 0.913076 1.160799 0.918985 0.979566 0.925537 0.811741 1.018324 0.89986 1.000817 1.018837 1.106525 1.231279

26.04282 24.40815 22.2919 28.55723 32.46979 30.62721 33.02108 33.25554 31.79916 35.20692 32.86976 42.92562 42.40705 44.21638 46.55686 47.00831 50.19517 45.41763 42.90411 45.80621 48.0046 47.63074 47.22804 47.72815 53.72082 47.88913 49.48388 48.06643 44.80448 50.45394 47.36454 50.02042 50.46652 52.52846 55.18265

Gain 11.4 25.6 14.8 11.35 -

Loss 3.6 20.4 14.7

Avg.Gain 9.183333 11.18889 11.18889 11.55 11.66 11.66 12.84444

Avg.Loss 5.3 5.3 3.31 3.0375 3.0375 7.825 9.2

RS 1.732704 2.111111 3.380329 3.802469 3.838683 1.490096 1.396135

RSI 63.40621 67.85714 77.17066 79.17738 79.33322 59.8409 58.26613


75

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 9-Oct-07 10-Oct-07 11-Oct-07 12-Oct-07 15-Oct-07 16-Oct-07 17-Oct-07 18-Oct-07 19-Oct-07 22-Oct-07 23-Oct-07 24-Oct-07 25-Oct-07 26-Oct-07 29-Oct-07 30-Oct-07 31-Oct-07 1-Nov-07 2-Nov-07 5-Nov-07 6-Nov-07 7-Nov-07 8-Nov-07 9-Nov-07 12-Nov-07 13-Nov-07 14-Nov-07 15-Nov-07 16-Nov-07 19-Nov-07 20-Nov-07 21-Nov-07 22-Nov-07 23-Nov-07 26-Nov-07 27-Nov-07 Date 28-Nov-07 29-Nov-07 30-Nov-07 3-Dec-07 4-Dec-07 5-Dec-07

796.15 806.7 830.55 803.35 818.3 820.8 806.95 791.35 785.15 772.9 795.6 774.6 800.6 804.8 807.25 767.75 757.85 746.95 754.8 740.15 719.45 720.3 707.55 694.8 684.35 693.3 707.65 698.95 697.1 703.1 708.45 691.3 694.5 714.35 711.75 719.75 Closing Price 721.25 718.2 732.45 736.15 741.3 772.4

31.8 10.55 23.85 14.95 2.5 22.7 26 4.2 2.45 7.85 0.85 8.95 14.35 6 5.35 3.2 19.85 8

27.2 13.85 15.6 6.2 12.25 21 39.5 9.9 10.9 14.65 20.7 12.75 12.75 10.45 8.7 1.85 17.15 2.6 -

16.22778 14.7 16.14444 16.94375 18.0375 16.31111 16.31111 16.925 15.68571 15.68571 16.81429 17.725 18.90714 17.06875 13.4 13.80714 12.13333 12.13333 10.95 12.64 12.64 10.675 10.675 10.675 8.27 8.383333 6.441667 6.89 8 7.6 7.225 7.225 6.45 8.364286 8.364286 9.385714

9.2 9.2 9.2 12.2 12.2 13.38 15.95 15.89167 14.50714 15.74286 15.74286 16.4 15.82857 16.01667 16.01667 19.37143 18.1875 16.15 16.15 15.98333 16.74444 16.8875 17.70625 17.76875 16.95556 16.45 16.45 15.58889 14.215 11.40556 11.59375 12.375 12.375 12.05 9.464286 9.464286

1.763889 1.597826 1.754831 1.388832 1.478484 1.219067 1.02264 1.065024 1.081241 0.99637 1.068058 1.080793 1.194495 1.065687 0.836629 0.712758 0.667125 0.75129 0.678019 0.790824 0.754877 0.632124 0.602894 0.600774 0.487746 0.509625 0.391591 0.441981 0.562786 0.666342 0.623181 0.583838 0.521212 0.694132 0.883774 0.991698

63.8191 61.50628 63.70013 58.13854 59.65275 54.93601 50.55967 51.5744 51.95174 49.90909 51.64546 51.94139 54.43142 51.58995 45.55241 41.61464 40.01649 42.89923 40.4059 44.15978 43.01596 38.73016 37.61286 37.53021 32.78421 33.75839 28.13979 30.65098 36.0117 39.98831 38.39256 36.86224 34.26295 40.97271 46.91506 49.79159

Gain 1.5 14.25 3.7 5.15 31.1

Loss 3.05 -

Avg.Gain 8.4 8.4 9.05 8.466667 7.444444 9.81

Avg.Loss 8.916667 7.3 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.1625

RS 0.942056 1.150685 1.356822 1.269365 1.116109 1.591886

RSI 48.50818 53.50318 57.56997 55.93482 52.74345 61.41806


76

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 6-Dec-07 7-Dec-07 10-Dec-07 11-Dec-07 12-Dec-07 13-Dec-07 14-Dec-07 17-Dec-07 18-Dec-07 19-Dec-07 20-Dec-07 24-Dec-07 26-Dec-07 27-Dec-07 28-Dec-07 31-Dec-07 1-Jan-08 2-Jan-08 3-Jan-08 4-Jan-08 7-Jan-08 8-Jan-08 9-Jan-08 10-Jan-08 11-Jan-08 14-Jan-08 15-Jan-08 16-Jan-08 17-Jan-08 18-Jan-08 21-Jan-08 22-Jan-08 23-Jan-08 24-Jan-08 25-Jan-08 28-Jan-08 29-Jan-08 Date 30-Jan-08 31-Jan-08 1-Feb-08 4-Feb-08 5-Feb-08

775.45 767.3 766.45 775.2 770.05 763.15 744.85 701.75 702.2 690.7 710.15 730.4 752.1 736.75 729.35 741.9 762.35 793.55 791.6 781.65 785.4 774.9 770.2 749.2 763.1 765.6 769 749.95 736.65 714.3 653.65 650.9 658.85 658.55 710.45 712.75 715.8 Closing Price 696.95 699.45 753.5 770 754

3.05 8.75 0.45 19.45 20.25 21.7 12.55 20.45 31.2 3.75 13.9 2.5 3.4 7.95 51.9 2.3 3.05

8.15 0.85 5.15 6.9 18.3 43.1 11.5 15.35 7.4 1.95 9.95 10.5 4.7 21 19.05 13.3 22.35 60.65 2.75 0.3 -

9.195455 9.515 9.977778 9.855 10.59444 9.4375 9.4375 9.642857 9.492857 9.492857 10.23571 12.6 14.96429 12.275 14.12 13.85833 14.8 18.00714 18.00714 18.00714 16.225 16.225 18.47857 18.47857 17.68571 15.15 12.53571 12.53571 12.53571 12.53333 10.95 5.8875 6.3 6.3 15.93 13.65833 12.14286

7.6 7.7375 6.36 3.6625 3.96 4.45 7.066667 12.21429 12.21429 13.42143 13.42143 13.42143 13.42143 13.6625 12.96667 13.56875 15.38571 15.38571 14.92857 15.36429 14.875 9.441667 8.764286 10.12143 10.12143 10.12143 10.12143 10.65 11.49286 12.85 18.16111 16.62 18.25 17.17778 17.17778 18.0125 19.91429

1.209928 1.229725 1.568833 2.690785 2.675365 2.120787 1.335495 0.789474 0.777193 0.707291 0.76264 0.938797 1.114955 0.898445 1.088946 1.021342 0.961931 1.170381 1.20622 1.172013 1.090756 1.718447 2.108394 1.825688 1.747354 1.496824 1.238532 1.177062 1.09074 0.975357 0.602937 0.354242 0.345205 0.366753 0.927361 0.75827 0.609756

54.74966 55.15143 61.07182 72.90549 72.79182 67.9568 57.18253 44.11765 43.73149 41.42768 43.26691 48.42163 52.71766 47.3253 52.12897 50.52791 49.02982 53.92513 54.67361 53.95976 52.17042 63.21429 67.82905 64.61039 63.60134 59.94912 55.32787 54.06654 52.17004 49.37623 37.6145 26.15795 25.66191 26.83389 48.11558 43.1259 37.87879

Gain 2.5 54.05 16.5 -

Loss 18.85 16

Avg.Gain 12.14286 10.51429 17.87857 19.75 19.75

Avg.Loss 19.60714 19.60714 19.60714 19.60714 19.17143

RS 0.619308 0.536248 0.91184 1.007286 1.030179

RSI 38.24522 34.90633 47.69436 50.18149 50.74326


77

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 6-Feb-08 7-Feb-08 8-Feb-08 11-Feb-08 12-Feb-08 13-Feb-08 14-Feb-08 15-Feb-08 18-Feb-08 19-Feb-08 20-Feb-08 21-Feb-08 22-Feb-08 25-Feb-08 26-Feb-08 27-Feb-08 28-Feb-08 29-Feb-08 3-Mar-08 4-Mar-08 5-Mar-08 7-Mar-08 10-Mar-08 11-Mar-08 12-Mar-08 13-Mar-08 14-Mar-08 17-Mar-08 18-Mar-08 19-Mar-08 24-Mar-08 25-Mar-08 26-Mar-08 27-Mar-08 28-Mar-08 31-Mar-08

735.95 715.1 710.95 700.85 693.9 714.8 733.15 751.85 732.7 739.65 710.3 708.05 696.05 705.85 704.15 707.85 709.8 700.35 695.1 702.2 704.35 671.8 674.8 653.3 645.1 621.35 637.65 609.4 619.45 650.65 663.2 680.1 678.75 655.35 646.05 622.7 Average

20.9 18.35 18.7 6.95 9.8 3.7 1.95 7.1 2.15 3 16.3 10.05 31.2 12.55 16.9 11.72519

18.05 20.85 4.15 10.1 6.95 19.15 29.35 2.25 12 1.7 9.45 5.25 32.55 21.5 8.2 23.75 28.25 1.35 23.4 9.3 23.35 12.89876

19.75 19.75 19.75 19.75 21.71667 21.6 16.80714 19.15 21.83333 19.70714 22.575 16.28 16.225 14.94 14.94 13.06667 11.47857 11.47857 11.47857 9.507143 7.192857 5.275 4.95 4.616667 4.616667 4.616667 6.285714 5.7 6.321429 10.25 11.76429 12.40625 12.40625 13.16429 15 15

19.85 19.63571 11.56429 12.61429 11.90625 13.56429 13.56429 13.56429 14.2625 13.60714 15.575 14.09444 13.885 13.65 11.83333 10.70625 11.64286 11.55 11.30714 11.30714 11.30714 13.9625 13.22143 14.25625 11.6125 14.3 14.62857 16.33125 18.42143 18.42143 18.42143 19.91667 19.26667 19.85714 18.5375 17.3875

0.994962 1.00582 1.707844 1.565685 1.823972 1.592417 1.239073 1.411796 1.530821 1.448294 1.449438 1.155065 1.168527 1.094505 1.262535 1.220471 0.98589 0.993816 1.015161 0.840809 0.636134 0.377798 0.374392 0.323835 0.39756 0.322844 0.429688 0.349024 0.343156 0.556417 0.63862 0.622908 0.643923 0.66295 0.809171 0.862689

49.87374 50.14509 63.07026 61.02406 64.58888 61.42596 55.33866 58.53712 60.48713 59.15523 59.17431 53.59769 53.88575 52.25603 55.80179 54.96451 49.64473 49.84491 50.37618 45.67605 38.88031 27.4204 27.24057 24.46186 28.44673 24.40529 30.05464 25.87234 25.5485 35.74988 38.97302 38.38221 39.1699 39.86589 44.72605 46.31416

Relative Strength Index: The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100


78


RSI of Tata Motors Scrip 90 80 70

RSI

60 50 RSI

40 30 20 10 3/2/2008

2/2/2008

1/2/2008

12/2/2007

11/2/2007

10/2/2007

9/2/2007

8/2/2007

7/2/2007

6/2/2007

5/2/2007

4/2/2007

0

Dates

A 14 day RSI is calculated for stock it is recommended by wilder that a 14 period will be a good indicator. By using the simple formula RSI = {100- [100 / (1+RS)]}.It states that if RSI is below 30 buy & if it crosses above 70 then sell it. From 2nd April 07 to 31st March 08 the RSI is calculated, the best time to sell the stock was between 27th Sep 07 to 4th October 07 and 10th December 07 to 12th December 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 8th August 07 to 23rd August 07 and 23rd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 as well as between 7th March to 18th March 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: [By using Moving Average] Company: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

79

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Sector: Automobile Sector

10 Days Moving Average of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Scrip Date

Open Price

High Price

Low Price

2-Apr-07 3-Apr-07 4-Apr-07 5-Apr-07 9-Apr-07 10-Apr-07 11-Apr-07 12-Apr-07 13-Apr-07 16-Apr-07 17-Apr-07 18-Apr-07 19-Apr-07 20-Apr-07 23-Apr-07 24-Apr-07 25-Apr-07 26-Apr-07 27-Apr-07 30-Apr-07 3-May-07 4-May-07 7-May-07 8-May-07 9-May-07 10-May-07 11-May-07 14-May-07 15-May-07 16-May-07 17-May-07 18-May-07 21-May-07 22-May-07

795 745 765 746 754 790 790 770 760 777.1 781.15 765 764 778.1 798.7 770 800 840 794.2 798.5 817.5 821 820 811 801 848.7 795 820 801.1 807 803 815 810.1 823

795 765.8 768 763.9 795.9 801 790 778 777 786 784.5 774.35 780 791.8 798.7 810 815 840 810 808.75 824.6 822 824 814.9 814.45 848.7 806.5 820 808.9 810 820 825 825 844

741.35 745 743.55 741 754 785 777.35 750.55 755 775.1 760.15 761.25 746 772 764 762 783 785.55 789.25 783 811 803 801.1 782.5 791.1 790.1 751.25 800.1 791 792.2 803 799 800.25 796

Date

Open Price

High Price

Low Price

23-May-07 24-May-07 25-May-07

840 805.55 805

840 818 819.5

811.25 805.55 795


Close Price 749.25 756.45 745.95 755.9 789.45 786.15 781.95 758.95 771.95 778 762.1 764.25 771.9 778.6 766.9 796 791 797.5 795.9 806.1 814.35 807.45 804.95 800.75 802.3 794.9 795.5 803.7 806.55 802.55 816.8 810.1 821 830.6 Close Price 815.2 810.4 810.3

10 days moving average #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 767.4 768.685 769.465 772.06 774.33 772.075 773.06 773.965 777.82 780.215 783.025 788.25 792.57 795.875 798.09 801.63 801.52 801.97 802.59 803.655 803.3 803.545 803.81 805.415 808.4 10 days moving average 809.69 811.24 812.72

80

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 28-May-07 29-May-07 30-May-07 31-May-07 1-Jun-07 4-Jun-07 5-Jun-07 6-Jun-07 7-Jun-07 8-Jun-07 11-Jun-07 12-Jun-07 13-Jun-07 14-Jun-07 15-Jun-07 18-Jun-07 19-Jun-07 20-Jun-07 21-Jun-07 22-Jun-07 25-Jun-07 26-Jun-07 27-Jun-07 28-Jun-07 29-Jun-07 2-Jul-07 3-Jul-07 4-Jul-07 5-Jul-07 6-Jul-07 9-Jul-07 10-Jul-07 11-Jul-07 12-Jul-07 13-Jul-07 16-Jul-07 17-Jul-07 18-Jul-07 19-Jul-07 20-Jul-07 23-Jul-07 24-Jul-07 25-Jul-07 26-Jul-07

819.4 826.5 825 808 820 876 839.8 823.75 774 751.55 740.1 735 721 729 734.9 741 742.05 751.45 771 753.1 769 749 760 748 758 745 777 790 792.05 760.3 802 795.7 810 806.3 830 833 829.85 824.9 824 834.4 821 831 819.55 812

831.7 833 826 820 829.95 876 839.8 823.75 784 758 748.8 739.9 734 733 747 749.9 753.9 772.4 772 763.75 769 759.9 760 758.9 758 786.6 785 799 810.1 808.9 805 819 814.8 830.75 839 843.5 841.1 826 830.4 845 839.3 837.8 826.8 857.35

812 815.1 802 805 808.15 804 796 772.65 740.3 731 728.1 717 715.05 724.7 729.25 738.15 735.5 751.45 756 750 751 747.15 746.1 738.95 740.1 745 772 776.25 792 760.3 790 786.15 795.2 804 824 820.3 818 808.2 812.35 821 815.1 815.25 808 810

Date

Open Price

High Price

Low Price

27-Jul-07 30-Jul-07

835 860

845 860

808 806.5


825.95 819.95 804.6 817.1 811.25 806.55 799.8 776.6 760.95 737.55 733.35 719.65 721.2 729.15 740.1 742.85 751.45 767.9 759.05 761.35 753.3 757.3 751.3 748.7 744.15 770.6 783.5 791.4 805.05 797 795.7 813.75 806.3 828.35 831.3 827.65 824.85 820.65 827.05 826.9 830.05 819.55 809.9 839.4 Close Price 830.25 845.85

814.945 816.285 816.49 816.52 816.635 815.19 812.11 808.25 803.305 796.03 786.77 776.74 768.4 759.605 752.49 746.12 741.285 740.415 740.225 742.605 744.6 748.365 751.375 753.33 753.735 756.51 759.715 762.065 766.665 770.23 774.47 780.115 785.615 793.58 802.295 808 812.135 815.06 817.26 820.25 823.685 824.265 824.625 825.73 10 days moving average 825.625 827.445

81

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 31-Jul-07 1-Aug-07 2-Aug-07 3-Aug-07 6-Aug-07 7-Aug-07 8-Aug-07 9-Aug-07 10-Aug-07 13-Aug-07 14-Aug-07 16-Aug-07 17-Aug-07 20-Aug-07 21-Aug-07 22-Aug-07 23-Aug-07 24-Aug-07 27-Aug-07 28-Aug-07 29-Aug-07 30-Aug-07 31-Aug-07 3-Sep-07 4-Sep-07 5-Sep-07 6-Sep-07 7-Sep-07 10-Sep-07 11-Sep-07 12-Sep-07 13-Sep-07 14-Sep-07 17-Sep-07 18-Sep-07 19-Sep-07 20-Sep-07 21-Sep-07 24-Sep-07 25-Sep-07 26-Sep-07 27-Sep-07 28-Sep-07 1-Oct-07 3-Oct-07

848 831.1 825.2 834 845 847 832 844 810 815 843 829.95 793.8 800 790 765 795 789 804 834 820 845 825 876.7 889.95 893.5 839.7 884.9 837 879 869.8 803.55 895 865 876 889 930 909 931.4 980 992 970.2 980.25 1008.8 985

854.95 835 851 856 847 847 841 869 816 836.9 843 829.95 793.8 815.9 791 789 804.05 802.9 848 838 838 849.75 872.9 901 898.8 900 883 887.9 880.9 881.8 869.8 894 904.8 880.9 884 934 930 935.5 1001.2 1001 1000 984.8 1028 1010 1034.7

820 806.1 821 828.8 819.5 821 825.1 817 795.5 813.05 817.15 780 715 780.2 761 749 760.15 766.1 802.25 815.3 810.3 831 825 875.3 870 868.1 839.7 870 837 856 854.6 803.55 863.5 863.2 868 889 907.2 909 931.4 950.3 955 956.6 971.25 978.75 960.25

Date

Open Price

High Price

Low Price

4-Oct-07

1020

1048

1011


844.55 821.2 832.3 850.65 824.9 824.85 836.6 826.85 809.55 832.7 823.55 793.45 778.65 783.75 767.5 765.8 775.95 790.05 833.45 832.5 833.55 836.75 867.7 881.65 893.3 873.75 880.65 873.3 874.6 861.15 859.55 891.7 866.75 874.95 875.4 923.85 910.15 931.4 980.75 991.15 961.95 980.15 998.75 990.15 1019.25 Close Price 1042.25

829.415 829.47 829.995 832.37 831.855 832.385 835.055 833.8 831.73 830.415 828.315 825.54 820.175 813.485 807.745 801.84 795.775 792.095 794.485 794.465 795.465 799.795 808.7 818.49 831.07 841.865 852.335 860.66 864.775 867.64 870.24 875.735 875.64 874.97 873.18 878.19 881.14 886.95 897.565 910.565 920.805 929.65 942.85 954.37 968.755 10 days moving average 980.595

82

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 5-Oct-07 8-Oct-07 9-Oct-07 10-Oct-07 11-Oct-07 12-Oct-07 15-Oct-07 16-Oct-07 17-Oct-07 18-Oct-07 19-Oct-07 22-Oct-07 23-Oct-07 24-Oct-07 25-Oct-07 26-Oct-07 29-Oct-07 30-Oct-07 31-Oct-07 1-Nov-07 2-Nov-07 5-Nov-07 6-Nov-07 7-Nov-07 8-Nov-07 9-Nov-07 12-Nov-07 13-Nov-07 14-Nov-07 15-Nov-07 16-Nov-07 19-Nov-07 20-Nov-07 21-Nov-07 22-Nov-07 23-Nov-07 26-Nov-07 27-Nov-07 28-Nov-07 29-Nov-07 30-Nov-07 3-Dec-07 4-Dec-07 5-Dec-07 6-Dec-07 7-Dec-07

1045 1051 1023.8 1105 1107 1119.9 1095 1161 1075.55 1175 1160 1059.9 1061 1112 1110 1140.1 1194.4 1189.85 1090 1100 1000 1026.15 1010 995 990 1010 972 997.95 1010 1037.5 1020 1051 1048 1016 954.25 970 950.1 951.7 945.5 984.35 1000 1030 1020 1012 1040 1050

1053.7 1051 1114.7 1135 1134.05 1119.9 1177.4 1190 1224 1210 1180 1094.9 1116.85 1139 1184.9 1199 1248 1203 1128.9 1100 1033 1036.5 1023.8 1011.9 1010 1010.4 1001 1020 1046 1065.5 1059.9 1065.4 1048 1016 986 986 974 954 974.8 1008.8 1024.95 1049 1035 1044 1064.8 1056

1020 1001.05 1010 1076 1084.25 1084 1095 1123.1 1075.55 1125 1048 1025 1061 1088 1090 1130 1175.55 1080 1045 997.05 969 970.3 962.8 960 961.25 980 957.05 981 1010 1025 1007 1051 995.7 945 940 938.05 948 930.25 945.05 975.05 996.4 1021.5 973.45 1012 1035 1004.3

Date

Open Price

High Price

Low Price


1034.85 1025.25 1105.05 1101.05 1119.35 1096.75 1160.7 1184.7 1174 1139.35 1076.6 1060.15 1102.9 1118.45 1164.2 1182.2 1189.85 1087.4 1073.85 1006.55 1021.2 994.65 972 999.35 994.5 990.05 995.5 1003.05 1038.25 1037.15 1046.95 1053.8 1007 954.25 965.25 947.45 951.7 937.45 967.5 990.1 1014.15 1032.85 1027.95 1034.4 1040.8 1041.45 Close Price

993.065 1002.45 1014.88 1025.87 1041.61 1053.27 1069.465 1088.92 1104.395 1114.105 1118.28 1121.77 1121.555 1123.295 1127.78 1136.325 1139.24 1129.51 1119.495 1106.215 1100.675 1094.125 1081.035 1069.125 1052.155 1032.94 1013.505 1005.07 1001.51 1004.57 1007.145 1013.06 1016.56 1012.05 1009.125 1004.865 1000.485 993.925 986.85 982.145 978.865 976.77 978.865 986.88 994.435 1003.835 10 days moving average

83

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 10-Dec-07 11-Dec-07 12-Dec-07 13-Dec-07 14-Dec-07 17-Dec-07 18-Dec-07 19-Dec-07 20-Dec-07 24-Dec-07 26-Dec-07 27-Dec-07 28-Dec-07 31-Dec-07 1-Jan-08 2-Jan-08 3-Jan-08 4-Jan-08 7-Jan-08 8-Jan-08 9-Jan-08 10-Jan-08 11-Jan-08 14-Jan-08 15-Jan-08 16-Jan-08 17-Jan-08 18-Jan-08 21-Jan-08 22-Jan-08 23-Jan-08 24-Jan-08 25-Jan-08 28-Jan-08 29-Jan-08 30-Jan-08 31-Jan-08 1-Feb-08 4-Feb-08 5-Feb-08 6-Feb-08 7-Feb-08 8-Feb-08 11-Feb-08 12-Feb-08 13-Feb-08 14-Feb-08 Date

1059.9 1050 1080 1083 1045 1042 1000 1037.8 1005 1000 994.7 999 992 1000 1000 1005 999 975 952 965 944.9 931 927 899.7 873.95 868 855 860 824 780 835 850 823 775.05 870 870 843 833.15 920 912 855.1 845 802 805.75 815.4 812 821.1 Open Price

1059.9 1085 1098 1089.8 1048.95 1044 1042.7 1042 1028 1012.5 1007 1014.8 1010 1009.9 1000 1009.95 999 982.5 970 970 1055 941.75 927 909 881.35 868 894.9 865.55 834.5 840 859 850 845 874 881 870 864.8 918 923.9 920 860 845 814 850 827 824.95 845 High Price


1034.75 1040 1058.05 1026.2 1021.1 1006.75 1000 980 981.1 982.3 988.7 992.25 978.5 985.1 986 978.6 969.95 959 952 936 912.5 905.05 888 840 852 827 842.15 835.1 755.05 700 785 761 794 775.05 816.3 833 825 826 891.2 869 827 790 780.1 775 796.25 802.15 820 Low Price

1045.65 1077.6 1073.3 1037 1042.35 1012.8 1018 998 993.6 990.25 993.1 995.2 986.6 994.5 991.55 997.05 973.2 964.15 963.75 939.8 924.75 909.2 899.7 863.45 871.35 847.7 864.8 842 803.2 807.05 826.15 788.75 833.7 864.7 863 844.9 850.2 905.75 897.35 872.6 832.25 800 805.75 813.35 807.7 817.25 829.2 Close

1013.23 1027.245 1037.825 1042.515 1045.335 1043.33 1042.335 1038.695 1033.975 1028.855 1023.6 1015.36 1006.69 1002.44 997.36 995.785 991.305 987.92 984.935 979.89 973.055 964.455 955.765 942.66 930.64 915.705 904.865 892.65 876.595 863.32 853.46 841.415 834.815 834.94 834.105 833.825 832.365 838.74 848.155 854.71 855.32 856.445 853.65 848.515 842.985 840.22 838.12 10 days moving

84


15-Feb-08 18-Feb-08 19-Feb-08 20-Feb-08 21-Feb-08 22-Feb-08 25-Feb-08 26-Feb-08 27-Feb-08 28-Feb-08 29-Feb-08 3-Mar-08 4-Mar-08 5-Mar-08 7-Mar-08 10-Mar-08 11-Mar-08 12-Mar-08 13-Mar-08 14-Mar-08 17-Mar-08 18-Mar-08 19-Mar-08 24-Mar-08 25-Mar-08 26-Mar-08 27-Mar-08 28-Mar-08 31-Mar-08

825 830 813 808 777 765 775 811.3 815 830 830 859.7 875 907 921.25 919 885 876 850 840 810 810 830 863.55 825 850 840.25 834.75 840

829 830 819 808 790 774.8 805.5 816 840 843 875 909 915 944.5 938.1 938 892 884.9 874.9 849.8 829.9 824.85 836.25 863.55 863.95 856 848.5 855 840

805 801 805.15 763 754.45 750.1 768.25 791 815 816.7 825 847.5 875 902 873.55 883 852 851.1 806 805 800 805.15 801.6 790 816 835.05 831 822 811

Price 812.45 806.2 809.4 769.7 763.15 766.35 800.55 813.3 832.9 837.15 868.2 872.65 904.55 940.2 927.85 895.05 866.65 857.4 840.35 832.7 806.55 813.35 822.45 810.2 843.85 845.6 838.3 837.8 827

average 828.79 819.675 813.355 807.1 803.415 799.475 798.195 798.755 800.32 801.115 806.69 813.335 822.85 839.9 856.37 869.24 875.85 880.26 881.005 880.56 874.395 868.465 860.255 847.255 838.855 833.91 831.075 829.115 827.78

Chart: Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

85


10 D AYS MOVIN G AVER AGE OF MAR U TI SC R IP

1400 1200 STOCK PRICE

1000 800

A ctual Forecast

600 400 200

DATES

3/2/2008

2/2/2008

1/2/2008

12/2/2007

11/2/2007

10/2/2007

9/2/2007

8/2/2007

7/2/2007

6/2/2007

5/2/2007

4/2/2007

0

Interpretation: Here, the Moving Average is almost equal to the Actual line. So it indicates that it is a right time to buy the security. In this Graph, we can observe that moving Average of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. Stock has been decreased. So, it is giving clear picture of future movement of the scrip. This Graph provides a message to the investor that it is a right time to buy the Stock of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. And, if we observe the trend of this graph then we can also notice that Moving Average line has been decreased, so it is also a right time to buy the stock. Here, in this case, the Stock price of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. is just equal to its moving average line. But if we see the trend of Moving Average then it indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish from bearish pattern on the Stock Price of Maruti Suzuki Ltd.


86

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Company: Tata Motors. Sector: Automobile

10 days Moving Average of Tata Motors Scrip Date 2-Apr-07 3-Apr-07 4-Apr-07 5-Apr-07 9-Apr-07 10-Apr-07 11-Apr-07 12-Apr-07 13-Apr-07 16-Apr-07 17-Apr-07 18-Apr-07 19-Apr-07 20-Apr-07 23-Apr-07 24-Apr-07 25-Apr-07 26-Apr-07 27-Apr-07 30-Apr-07 3-May-07 4-May-07 7-May-07 8-May-07 9-May-07 10-May-07 11-May-07 14-May-07 15-May-07 16-May-07 17-May-07 18-May-07 21-May-07 22-May-07 23-May-07 24-May-07 25-May-07 28-May-07 29-May-07 30-May-07

Opening Price 711 679.7 686.1 680 690 711.5 721.55 718.8 714.1 735 751 711.25 717 722 729.7 728.8 750.1 777 768.15 740.15 780 734 735 728.3 730 728.1 713 728.7 717.9 715 754.7 752 741 727 647.9 706.85 708 730 735 745.9

High Price

Low Price

711 685.85 690.95 694.75 709.75 725.6 731 719 727.5 754.9 761.5 741 722.2 733.45 733.7 754 767.45 789.85 774.4 761 780 744.7 743 735 731.5 733.75 720.85 729.8 719.9 737.9 756.8 757 745 743.65 733.85 717 729 740.9 743.9 745.9

661.05 671 669.1 679.1 690 708.2 713.65 707.05 704 730 728 711.25 704.2 720.1 715 725.1 750.05 747.5 739 732 729.1 726 718.6 720.05 713 712 690 709.1 713 715 737 740 723 724.3 647.9 705.25 703.05 728.2 730.15 736


Closing Price 670.9 681.4 682.8 686.1 703.7 721.55 722.8 712.4 726.3 750.25 730.6 722.5 713.1 722.9 718.15 741.6 759.05 766.6 749.35 751.75 733.1 731.5 728.3 725.1 723.25 714.85 716.1 715.2 714.35 734.65 750.6 741.8 725.45 726.95 708 712.7 726.95 732.75 740.85 742.1

10 days moving average #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 705.82 711.79 715.9 718.93 722.61 724.055 726.06 729.685 735.105 737.41 737.56 737.81 738.71 740.23 740.45 740.96 738.285 733.99 728.85 725.35 723.64 725.39 726.42 726.135 726.32 724.795 724.58 725.665 727.42 730.07 730.815

87


Date 31-May-07 1-Jun-07 4-Jun-07 5-Jun-07 6-Jun-07 7-Jun-07 8-Jun-07 11-Jun-07 12-Jun-07 13-Jun-07 14-Jun-07 15-Jun-07 18-Jun-07 19-Jun-07 20-Jun-07 21-Jun-07 22-Jun-07 25-Jun-07 26-Jun-07 27-Jun-07 28-Jun-07 29-Jun-07 2-Jul-07 3-Jul-07 4-Jul-07 5-Jul-07 6-Jul-07 9-Jul-07 10-Jul-07 11-Jul-07 12-Jul-07 13-Jul-07 16-Jul-07 17-Jul-07 18-Jul-07 19-Jul-07 20-Jul-07 23-Jul-07 24-Jul-07 25-Jul-07 26-Jul-07 27-Jul-07 30-Jul-07 31-Jul-07 1-Aug-07 2-Aug-07

Opening Price 744 753.35 745 714.8 705 676 677.85 676.1 575 645 665.15 647 658 644 666.15 695 682 685 678 683.5 673.7 666.05 669.5 684 693.9 700 709 711.05 720 742 736.1 749 786 759.5 750 750 830 770 769 747.1 730.9 735 720.5 706 699 665

High Price

Low Price

764.4 759.7 745 721.3 710 709.7 677.85 676.1 659 657.3 665.15 685 658 664.95 690.05 698 687.5 690.5 688 685.5 675.85 675 687.4 694.9 707.5 712.9 718 722.5 746.6 743.25 745 772.1 786 767 755 785 830 780 779 747.1 762.25 735 720.5 718.8 699 677.6

742 742.2 707.55 707.7 656.1 672.4 646.55 646 575 642 638.3 645 642.9 644 666.15 682.1 663.15 673.15 671.05 666 659.75 666 666.2 676.2 687 695.35 695.65 711.05 720 727.15 727 743.05 751.3 745.1 731.5 743 760 756 745 722.5 718.2 695 696 685.55 660.6 646.6


Closing Price 755.7 747.95 710.85 710.5 688 677.85 652.2 653.2 641.2 645.2 642.25 650.4 644.95 663.5 686.4 687.5 684.3 678.15 684.6 671.7 664.4 670.2 682.2 685.85 701.35 709.55 711.2 716.3 743.25 736.1 739.85 767.05 759.5 748.8 743.35 776.75 767.6 766.6 747.1 726 731.85 699.15 707.25 699.4 667.4 651.8

10 days moving average 731.325 731.94 730.48 728.835 726.835 723.35 715.875 707.92 697.955 688.265 676.92 667.165 660.575 655.875 655.715 656.68 659.89 662.385 666.725 669.375 671.59 673.57 677.295 679.53 681.025 683.23 685.92 689.735 695.6 702.04 709.585 719.27 727 733.295 737.495 744.215 749.855 754.885 755.27 754.26 753.46 746.67 741.445 736.505 728.91 716.415

88

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 3-Aug-07 Date 6-Aug-07 7-Aug-07 8-Aug-07 9-Aug-07 10-Aug-07 13-Aug-07 14-Aug-07 16-Aug-07 17-Aug-07 20-Aug-07 21-Aug-07 22-Aug-07 23-Aug-07 24-Aug-07 27-Aug-07 28-Aug-07 29-Aug-07 30-Aug-07 31-Aug-07 3-Sep-07 4-Sep-07 5-Sep-07 6-Sep-07 7-Sep-07 10-Sep-07 11-Sep-07 12-Sep-07 13-Sep-07 14-Sep-07 17-Sep-07 18-Sep-07 19-Sep-07 20-Sep-07 21-Sep-07 24-Sep-07 25-Sep-07 26-Sep-07 27-Sep-07 28-Sep-07 1-Oct-07 3-Oct-07 4-Oct-07 5-Oct-07 8-Oct-07 9-Oct-07

660.4 Opening Price 650 655 665 664 648.65 675 696 661 660.5 660 650 633 629.9 628.1 665.35 679 660 680.2 680 704 700.05 700 701 714 686.5 704 692 684.75 701 698 698 703 728.9 729.05 749.8 747.2 740.9 747 755 807 778 800 799.45 780.15 745

673

653.25

High Price

Low Price

655 667 670.45 680 672.5 696 698.5 673.8 669 667 655 642.5 642 664 682 679 677.6 699 711 709 707.9 712.9 716.9 718 704.85 704.5 698.9 699 704.9 698 701 734.95 747.8 747.45 755 747.9 747 760.7 822 807 809.6 807.4 800.05 787 800

631.2 655 657 659.2 648.65 670.15 681 650 638.4 644.1 628.15 616.1 613 628.1 665.35 656.4 645 674 680 692.2 682.05 687 690 692.15 681.2 686.3 681 684.4 689.25 688.55 692.15 700 724 720 737.35 733.1 721.5 740 742.1 765 752.1 777.4 770 745 745


656.35 Closing Price 648.8 657.7 658.95 663.55 669.4 692.55 691.15 660.5 641.15 649.85 634.15 619.5 620.8 656.6 675.4 663.05 674.15 680.75 701.75 702.85 691.35 698.85 712.05 695.15 702.7 689.15 684.75 695 693.75 694.75 696.1 720.4 731.25 741 747.2 740.9 739.9 751.3 776.9 773.3 788.1 799.45 779.05 764.35 796.15

705.29 10 days moving average 693.51 684.57 677.865 671.035 668.06 666.59 665.765 665.075 664.01 663.36 661.895 658.075 654.26 653.565 654.165 651.215 649.515 651.54 657.6 662.9 668.62 676.555 685.68 689.535 692.265 694.875 695.935 697.36 696.56 695.75 696.225 698.38 700.3 704.885 709.335 714.51 720.025 725.655 733.97 741.825 751.025 758.93 763.71 766.045 770.94

89

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 10-Oct-07 11-Oct-07 Date 12-Oct-07 15-Oct-07 16-Oct-07 17-Oct-07 18-Oct-07 19-Oct-07 22-Oct-07 23-Oct-07 24-Oct-07 25-Oct-07 26-Oct-07 29-Oct-07 30-Oct-07 31-Oct-07 1-Nov-07 2-Nov-07 5-Nov-07 6-Nov-07 7-Nov-07 8-Nov-07 9-Nov-07 12-Nov-07 13-Nov-07 14-Nov-07 15-Nov-07 16-Nov-07 19-Nov-07 20-Nov-07 21-Nov-07 22-Nov-07 23-Nov-07 26-Nov-07 27-Nov-07 28-Nov-07 29-Nov-07 30-Nov-07 3-Dec-07 4-Dec-07 5-Dec-07 6-Dec-07 7-Dec-07 10-Dec-07 11-Dec-07 12-Dec-07

773.65 811 Opening Price 830 807 837.1 776.65 801.25 779.6 779 781 798.9 784 799.8 816.8 810 767.3 770 730 750 740.15 720 715 718.4 687 690 700 705 685 705 700 739.2 702 700 720.1 710 720 722 724 736 737 744 775.5 775 772 770 776.9

818.9 841.9

773.65 800.1

High Price

Low Price

838.9 825 837.1 814.8 821.7 801 784 808.4 805 816.8 815 836.8 816.9 805.95 771.9 759 750 744.8 734.5 724.7 718.4 694.35 705.2 731.8 718.5 711 715.9 718 739.2 709.8 723.7 728 722.5 725.95 744 744 749 746 783.9 782 781.7 777.7 777.3 780

789.05 807 805 741 755 758.25 760 781 770 775 775.2 801 756.05 750.05 739 725 735 716.3 710.2 704.6 687 675 673.1 700 695.55 685 697 691 686.1 678.15 698.3 705 706 714 714 714 733.35 728.35 744 763.25 760.55 745.05 761 762


806.7 830.55 Closing Price 803.35 818.3 820.8 806.95 791.35 785.15 772.9 795.6 774.6 800.6 804.8 807.25 767.75 757.85 746.95 754.8 740.15 719.45 720.3 707.55 694.8 684.35 693.3 707.65 698.95 697.1 703.1 708.45 691.3 694.5 714.35 711.75 719.75 721.25 718.2 732.45 736.15 741.3 772.4 775.45 767.3 766.45 775.2 770.05

777.52 786.585 10 days moving average 791.79 795.93 800.68 802.565 801.755 802.365 803.22 803.165 799.955 796.96 797.105 796 790.695 785.785 781.345 778.31 775.035 767.42 761.99 752.685 741.685 729.395 721.95 716.93 712.13 706.36 702.655 701.555 698.655 697.35 699.305 702.045 704.69 706.05 707.975 711.51 714.815 718.1 726.21 734.305 739.6 745.07 750.615 755.495

90

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 13-Dec-07 14-Dec-07 17-Dec-07 Date 18-Dec-07 19-Dec-07 20-Dec-07 24-Dec-07 26-Dec-07 27-Dec-07 28-Dec-07 31-Dec-07 1-Jan-08 2-Jan-08 3-Jan-08 4-Jan-08 7-Jan-08 8-Jan-08 9-Jan-08 10-Jan-08 11-Jan-08 14-Jan-08 15-Jan-08 16-Jan-08 17-Jan-08 18-Jan-08 21-Jan-08 22-Jan-08 23-Jan-08 24-Jan-08 25-Jan-08 28-Jan-08 29-Jan-08 30-Jan-08 31-Jan-08 1-Feb-08 4-Feb-08 5-Feb-08 6-Feb-08 7-Feb-08 8-Feb-08 11-Feb-08 12-Feb-08 13-Feb-08 14-Feb-08 15-Feb-08 18-Feb-08

770 760 743.8 Opening Price 709.1 716 692 727 736 756 732 744 742 766.85 800 800 783 790 767 783 779.95 764.9 777.7 750 750 736.65 714 635 680 673 667.1 705 720.1 723.9 709 708 765 770 733.95 740 717 707.3 700.85 700 724.1 725 724.05

787.8 764 749.7

747.1 738 690

High Price

Low Price

720 717.4 714.9 733.7 755.5 760 739.7 745 766.5 797 816 824.1 807.8 799.5 787 802 779.95 779.5 790 755 755 737.7 716 690 710 693.4 718 739.7 737.5 723.9 720 760 787.8 774 743 748.9 730 723.8 710.4 719.9 743.8 756 755

697 681.2 692 717 730 731.4 688 733 737 753 780.05 771.15 763 765.4 754 744.1 736.15 758.9 758.65 730.3 730.35 706.3 637.15 530.5 639 645 667 670 701 686.25 686.6 706 754 745 702.6 698.05 697.05 685 688.65 700 721.55 715 724.05


763.15 744.85 701.75 Closing Price 702.2 690.7 710.15 730.4 752.1 736.75 729.35 741.9 762.35 793.55 791.6 781.65 785.4 774.9 770.2 749.2 763.1 765.6 769 749.95 736.65 714.3 653.65 650.9 658.85 658.55 710.45 712.75 715.8 696.95 699.45 753.5 770 754 735.95 715.1 710.95 700.85 693.9 714.8 733.15 751.85 732.7

759.99 761.23 757.79 10 days moving average 753.88 745.71 739.18 735.49 734.055 730.21 726.14 724.015 725.765 734.945 743.885 752.98 760.505 764.955 766.765 768.01 771.385 773.755 774.42 770.06 764.565 757.83 744.655 732.255 721.12 712.055 706.79 701.505 696.185 690.885 687.165 691.085 702.72 713.03 720.74 726.395 726.445 725.255 723.065 724.85 728.22 728.055 724.325

91

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 19-Feb-08 20-Feb-08 21-Feb-08 22-Feb-08 Date 25-Feb-08 26-Feb-08 27-Feb-08 28-Feb-08 29-Feb-08 3-Mar-08 4-Mar-08 5-Mar-08 7-Mar-08 10-Mar-08 11-Mar-08 12-Mar-08 13-Mar-08 14-Mar-08 17-Mar-08 18-Mar-08 19-Mar-08 24-Mar-08 25-Mar-08 26-Mar-08 27-Mar-08 28-Mar-08 31-Mar-08

740 738.8 715 708.5 Opening Price 700.1 710 705.1 705 709.8 700.35 703 703 701.1 672.5 675 669 640 624 625 609.4 633.1 651.95 670 690 670 654 641

750.8 738.8 729 708.5

735.1 700 703.2 690

High Price

Low Price

715 714 717.95 714.9 715 709.95 706.95 711.95 701.1 699.7 675 669 675 645 629.7 625 655 669.95 685 694 673.6 654 645

695 700.15 705 703.35 686.3 685 688.4 700 658 611.65 650.1 638.3 614.15 624 597.1 597 632 651.95 670 651.05 628.35 633.1 617.35


739.65 710.3 708.05 696.05 Closing Price 705.85 704.15 707.85 709.8 700.35 695.1 702.2 704.35 671.8 674.8 653.3 645.1 621.35 637.65 609.4 619.45 650.65 663.2 680.1 678.75 655.35 646.05 622.7

722.89 720.325 719.62 718.13 10 days moving average 718.63 719.655 718.96 716.625 711.475 707.715 703.97 703.375 699.75 697.625 692.37 686.465 677.815 670.6 661.505 653.94 648.785 644.67 645.5 645.895 646.1 646.195 646.33

92


Chart: 10 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE OF TATA SCRIP 900 800

STOCK PRICE

700 600 500

Actual

400

Forecast

300 200 100 3/2/2008

2/2/2008

1/2/2008

12/2/2007

11/2/2007

10/2/2007

9/2/2007

8/2/2007

7/2/2007

6/2/2007

5/2/2007

4/2/2007

0

DATES

Interpretation: Here, In this case, Moving Average is above the Actual line. So it indicates that it is a right time to buy the security. In this Graph, we can see that the moving average of Tata Motors Stock has been decreased. So, it is giving clear picture of future movement of the scrip. This Graph provides a message to the investor that it is a right time to buy the Stock of Tata Motors. Here, in this case, the actual Stock price of Tata Motors is just below its moving average line. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the Stock Price of Tata Motors.


93

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Moreover, Stock price and moving Average of Tata Motors has been decreased. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish from bearish pattern on the Stock Price of Tata Motors.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: [By Using Candle Stick Charting] Company Name: Maruti Suzuki Ltd. C andle Stick of Maruti Suz uki scrip

1400 1200

Stock Prices

1000 Opening Price

800

High Price Low Price

600

Closing Price

400 200

3/2/2008

2/2/2008

1/2/2008

12/2/2007

D ates

11/2/2007

10/2/2007

9/2/2007

8/2/2007

7/2/2007

6/2/2007

5/2/2007

4/2/2007

0

Interpretation: Japanese Candle Stick is used to analyze the pattern of stock movement. Candle is same as bar chart but the color is different red candle is used to indicate the bearish trend and green candle is a indicator of bullish trend


94

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Japanese candle use historical prices of a stock in the prescribed manner i.e. Open, High, Low, Close. The size of the candle is known by its magnitude of open and close, and the size of the shadow is known by high and close. In the above Candle Stick Chart it is clear that Stock Price of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. has been decreased. Simply Share Prices of Maruti Suzuki Ltd is falling down. It indicates that the investors are becoming more bearish than bullish. Here, as far as Maruti Suzuki is concerned, bearish market trend is taking place. It is a right time to buy the Scrip.

Company: Tata Motors

Candle Stick for TATA Motors Scrip 900 800

Stock Prices

700 600 500

Opening Price

400

Low Price

300

Closing Price

High Price

200 100 3/2/2008

2/2/2008

1/2/2008

12/2/2007

11/2/2007

10/2/2007

9/2/2007

8/2/2007

7/2/2007

6/2/2007

5/2/2007

4/2/2007

0

Dates

Interpretation: From the above Candle Stick Chart it is clear that Stock Price of Tata Motors is falling down. Here, we can observe lot of volatility in stock price. Both the Bullish and Bearish trends are taking place. The Bullish trend is following by Bearish Trend. It Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

95

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” indicates that the investors are becoming more bearish than bullish. At present Situation Bearish Trend is going on. It is a right time to buy the Scrip.

FINDINGS, SUGGESTIONS & CONCLUSION


96


CHAPTER: 10 FINDINGS, SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSION Findings of the study: •

In case of RSI of Maruti Suzuki Scrip, the best time to sell the stock was between

12th July 07 to 31st July 07 and 9th October 07 to 18th October 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 2nd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days. •

In case of RSI of Tata Motors, the best time to sell the stock was between 27 th Sep

07 to 4th October 07 and 10th December 07 to 12th December 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 8th August 07 to 23rd August 07 and 23rd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 as well as between 7th March to 18th March 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days. •

The 10 days moving average of Maruti Suzuki scrip, provides a message to the

investor that it is a right time to buy the Stock and, the trend of the Moving Average line has been decreased, so it is also a right time to buy the stock. •

In case of 10 days Moving Average of Tata Motors Ssrip, the actual Stock price is

just below its moving average line. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the Stock Price of Tata Motors. •

In Japanese Candle Stick Chart of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. we can see that the stock

price has been decreased. Simply Share Prices of Maruti Suzuki Ltd is falling down. It indicates that the investors are becoming more bearish than bullish.


97


In case of Japanese Candle Stick Chart of Tata Motors, we can observe lot of

volatility in stock price. Both the Bullish and Bearish trends are taking place. The Bullish trend is following by Bearish Trend •

Fundamentally, financial performance of these companies in respect of sales and

profit is good. •

If an investor opts for long term investment then he will earn huge amount of

return. Long term Investment is known to be less risky. •

This study may not provide any guidelines to Speculators. It is useful to Long Term

Investors. •

Technical analysts evaluate securities by analyzing statistics generated by market

activity, past prices and volume. •

One of the most basic and easy to use technical analysis indicators is the moving

average, which shows the average value of a security's price over a period of time. The most commonly used moving averages are 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 50 days, 100 days and 200-days moving average.. •

One of the most important areas for any investor to look when researching a

company is the financial statement. Financial reports are required by law and are published both quarterly and annually. •

Indian Economy is consistently achieving a tremendous growth in these Sectors.

•

If we consider RSI then almost all the scrips of these companies are lying between

30 and 70. It means an investor should hold the scrips until it reaches 70 to sell and 30 to buy. •

The stock prices always take a correction after a major climb.

•

Moving average is one of the best methods of predicting future movement of Stock

Price. If we use 200 Day Moving Average for Analysis then volatility of stock will be less. It gives clear picture of movement of Stock.

Conclusion of the study: Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

98

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” As we all know India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. India is consistently achieving growth in automobile sector. The automotive industry is witnessing tremendous and unprecedented changes these days. On a global scale, the assets of the top ten automotive corporations s for 28% of the assets of the world’s top 50 companies, 29% of their employment and 30% of their total sales. The Indian automobile industry is going through a technological change where each firm is engaged in changing its processes and technologies to sustain the competitive advantage and provide customers with the optimized products and services. The automobile industry had a growth of 15.4 % during April-January 2007, with the average annual growth of 10-15% over the last decade or so. With the incremental investment of $35-40 billion, the growth is expected to double in the next 10 years. Consistent growth and dedication have made the Indian automobile industry the second- largest tractor and two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. It is also the fifthlargest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Indian automobile market is among the largest in Asia. The Ministry of Heavy Industries has released the Automotive Plan 2006-2016, with the motive of making India the most popular manufacturing hub for automobiles and its components in Asia. The plan focuses on the removal of all the bottlenecks that are inhibiting its growth in the domestic as well as international arena. With comparatively higher rate of economic growth rate index against that of great global powers, India has become a hub of domestic and exports business. The automobile sector has been contributing its share to the shining economic performance of India in the recent years. The Indian automobile industry is going through a phase of rapid change and high growth. With new projects coming up on a regular basis, the industry is undergoing technological change. The major players are expanding their plants and focusing on mass customization, mass production, etc Apart from domestic production, the industry is consistently focusing on the automobile exports. The auto component segment is contributing a lot in the export arena.


99

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The liberalized policies of the government are now making the companies go for more and more exports. Because of these reasons, the shares of automobile industry are performing well and therefore the share market is attracting people to invest their hard earned money and find fortune. But lack of knowledge about shares and stock market is making them cautious of investing in this market. They need to be educated as well as guided to minimize the risk and to assess the return on their investment.

Suggestions: 1.

Before going to invest, an investor should have clear and adequate

knowledge of capital market. 2.

It is better to go for Long term Investment rather than the Short term

Investment. Because it is less risky and also provides sufficient return. 3.

The investors should know the value of money.

4.

Practically, stock market activities are very risky. So, investors should be

careful while investing. 5.

In case of half knowledge about stock market is very dangerous. So,

whenever a person wants to invest in stock market he should take necessary tips from the experts or Technical Analysts. 6.

Investors should also look into global pressure and market movement in

order to look for avenues of investing in different stocks and to take position; some of the sources for understanding global pressure are CNBC TV18, News Paper, Economy watch etc.


100


BIBLIOGRAPHY


101


CHAPTER 11 BIBLIOGRAPHY BOOKS REFERRED: 1.

Security Analysis & Portfolio Management, By, Punithavathy Pandian.

2.

Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management, By Prasanna Chandra

3.

Financial Markets & Institutions, By, Dr. S. Guruswamy

4. Security Analysis And Portfolio Management, By, Donald E.Fisher And Ronald J. Jordan, WEB SITES: 1. www.bseindia.com 2. www.nseindia.com 3. www.stockchart.com 4. www.icicidirect.com 5. www.marutisuzuki.com 6. www.tatamotors.com 7. www.investopedia.com 8. www.moneycontrol.com 9. www.equitymaster.com MAGZINES AND JOURNALS: 1. Annual Reports of Companies. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com

102

“Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 2. Factsheet of Geojit Securities.


103

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